http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/79910621/foreign-buyers-data--full-frank-and-meaningless.adaptive.html
When a jourmalist tries to complioment Nick Smith for not being as
much of a liar as Key and English, you know that there is little trust
in the government.
"The data showed just 37 per cent of all house sales definitively went
to New Zealanders.
The majority of the other sales may have too but they can't be sure.
Sales to trusts and companies were exempted.
Another 45 per cent of all house sales in Auckland were exempted - a
further 10 per cent of all sales nationwide were excluded due to other
reasons.
So, thousands and thousands of house sales simply weren't included. It
renders the data, useless. "
and
"One real estate agent told me this week 30 per cent of all her sales
in Auckland go to offshore buyers.
An old mate of mine selling real estate in Hamilton sold a house,
sight unseen, to a foreign phone bidder just this week. They paid 'big
money.'
But for the most accurate picture I went to BNZ chief economist, Tony Alexander. He's been working on this issue for years. He doesn't
believe the Government's smoke-bomb this week either.
He suggests the real figure is likely to be up to 8 per cent. That's
three to four times what the Government claimed this week.
If that's correct, then, over time, thousands and thousands of houses, especially in Auckland are in the hands of people who don't live here.
That worries me in a market where we don't build enough homes. It's
not the Government's job to bullshit us to suit their own purpose.
It's their job to accurately get the best information possible so the
best public policy can be made. On this front they failed New
Zealanders this week.
In a year's time the true picture will be revealed. And of course
they'll be open to policy changes then won't they - as an election
looms.
But for now, they're clinging hopelessly to some dodgy statistics in
the belief they can fool most of the people, most of the time.
Be careful what you believe from a propaganda machine in full noise."
We also need to be careful what we believe from sloppy journalists -
Duncan Garner did not give the definition used by Tony Alexander - I
suspect he left out properties purchased by New Zealand Companies, New
Zealand Trusts, and temporary New Zealand residents. For an example,
think of the student in Auckland who "owned" 27 properties - he lived
in one of the apartments in one of those properties. He was here on a
student visa - should that have counted as foreign owned?
We do have a different view here:
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/303532/foreign-buyers-'very-under-reported'
"Speaking on Checkpoint with John Campbell today, financial journalist
Bernard Hickey said it looked like the number was an underestimate.
He said the 3 percent number was "a very sketchy beginning".
Mr Hickey said the actual figure for foreigners buying homes here
could be anywhere between 3 and 48 percent.
"Thirty-five percent of the buyers of homes said they were foreign
students or had temporary work visas," he said.
But Land Information said some of those people could be New Zealanders
who misinterpreted the survey question.
Mr Hickey said there would be more meaningful figures in six to 12
months' time.
That was because figures released later would also cover the 10
percent of transactions currently exempt because they happened before
the rules came into force on 1 October.
"Who are the people who say they are New Zealand residents who are
foreign students or had temporary work visas?
"By any usual measure they wouldn't be counted as New Zealand
residents. Currently that number is 35 percent, which is pretty
chunky."
Mr Hickey said adding the 10 percent currently exempt to the 35
percent who said they were foreign students or on temporary work
visas, plus the 3 percent would mean 48 percent of land sales were to
foreign buyers - a figure "way out of the ballpark".
Land Information has said it will redesign the survey, and this, along
with the coverage of all transactions, meant proper data would not be
available until the end of this year or early next year.
LINZ chief executive Peter Mersi said the figures released today gave
some information about overseas interests, but he conceded it was not
a register of foreign ownership.
"Of about 45,000 property transfers in that quarter, for 3 percent of
those transfers, at least one of the parties associated with being a
buyer had an overseas tax residency."
Mr Hickey predicted housing, especially housing supply in Auckland,
would be a major election issue next year."
___________
For what looks like a major election issue, National have not done
themselves any good by trying to mislead
,
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: Agency HUB, Dunedin - New Zealand | Fido<>Usenet Gateway (3:770/3)