http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/78213226/the-new-zealand-economy--is-everything-going-to-be-alright

The most recent GDP figures show annual growth of 2.5 per cent,
slightly above the OECD average, with a forecast staying at or around
the OECD average for 2017.

On the face of it, that is pretty good, but currently we are in large
part importing growth, rather than creating it.

Our economic growth is connected to population growth due to
immigration. The rise in real GDP per capita in 2015 was only 0.3 per
cent and real national disposable income per capita, which takes into
account population growth and changes in the purchasing power of
income, fell 0.4 per cent in 2015.

and

When the current Government came to power in 2008, it made growth in
the share of exports in GDP (from then about 29 per cent to 40 per
cent in 2025) a key target.

We are still at about 30 per cent with no upward trend, which is
little more than half of the OECD average of 55 per cent, meaning we
are not yet an export-driven economy by international standards.

The Government may have gone quiet on its target, but the level of
exports relative to GDP remains as a key predictor of our ability to
pay our way and grow the economy overall.

The second aspect is to grow economic diversity in New Zealand –
diversity creates stability of growth in the long term.

We have been aware for a long time that we need to diversify our
economy and deliver more sophisticated products and services. Hence,
for example, the regular calls for more value-added processing of our
primary products – from milk to what, from fish to what, from logs of
radiata pine to what?

We also need to move on from seeing dairy exports (or any other single category) as the key driver of our economic wellbeing, and from
watching the ups and downs of different sectors of our economy as if
we were following our favourite Super 18 rugby team.

The reality is that we need all of our major and emerging sectors to
grow on a sustainable basis.

One point, in particular, is the importance of balancing factors.

The value of our commodity exports have been rising and falling
sharply for a very long time, as they have been globally. This is an
inherent feature of the commodity trade and it is here to stay, and
highlights the importance of stabilising our economy through other
sectors that can be consistent performers.

Tourism can be one of these. Visitor arrivals have grown steadily from
about 80,000 a month in 1990 to 373,400 a month in February this year,
with a few spikes like the Rugby World Cup.

In 2015 tourism contributed 4.9 per cent of our GDP and $11.8 billion
in export earnings, making it the second-biggest after dairy.

The problem with tourism, however, is that while it plays an important
part, both in growth and the promotion of New Zealand, it simply does
not provide the high-value returns and productivity growth we need as
a contributor to wealth creation, or the well-paying jobs we want.

As Sir Paul Callaghan said: "The more tourism, the poorer we get.
Tourism is a great industry, but it cannot be a route to prosperity".

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Thank goodness for all those bolthole millionaires bring capital in,
but it doesn't seem to be bringing debt down:

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand

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