• ufos and the pandemic -- lagged regrs at daily granularity

    From MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com@1:229/2 to All on Friday, February 12, 2021 17:41:48
    XPost: alt.ufo.reports

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
    - Updating our correlation of virus data and UFO sighting data to
    day-by-day granularity allows us to time shift one against the other
    looking for the "best fit".
    - Keeping in mind the assumed incubation for covid is regularly
    reported to be "days" and sometimes "about 7 days" we find the best
    R2 from the relevant lagged regression is found to be 6 days for US
    new daily virus cases and 5 days for US daily virus deaths. This is
    uncannily what we would expect if UFO reports were proximal with
    some number of covid infections.
    - SAD.


    More interesting patterns in the inbox today.

    Overnight the s/w got around to updating its NUFORC database and
    collected up the sightings for all of 2020.

    It already collects daily data from JHU for the pandemic and these
    periodically get posted somewhere else.

    But with daily granularity in both sets we can now compare sightings
    and virus cases or virus deaths in detail. One of the details is we
    would expect the "best match" to happen around a lag of 7
    days. I.e. if UFO activity goes up on day T then if UFO activity and
    virus cases are connected in some way then we would expect virus cases
    to go up around T+7. I.e. there is an incubation time. If UFO's are
    involved then the "UFO activity" might be expected to be related to
    "infection" but it takes around 1 wk for the initial infection to
    fight its way past the initial immune reaction in the nose and throat
    and work its way down into the lungs, liver, heart, kidneys, pancreas, intestines, spinal cord and brain -- "incubation" they call it.

    So we again are going to match up a list of numbers for UFO activity
    -- i.e. daily sighting reports -- and daily new covid cases for e.g.
    the USA as tallied by Johns Hopkins and others, and gently slide the
    UFO numbers along day by day by day to see how the match might improve
    and dis-improve and find at which lag or delay the match is best.

    Here is the exercise for the US daily new covid cases data for 2020:

    Lag R2 ("goodness of fit" metric) from UFO/daily new covid cases ts regr
    00 0.00082523
    01 0.18592728
    02 0.02414537
    03 0.14584127
    04 0.02834430
    05 0.29605630 <-- 2nd bump
    06 0.67975747 <-- best match!
    07 0.10828186
    08 0.02969608
    09 0.00248858
    10 0.00140389
    11 0.00234559
    12 0.00465695
    13 0.00931614
    14 0.04529383

    WOW! The best match seems to happen around day 6. So close to the
    expected value you could smell it!

    Let's try the same exercise for the covid daily death data for the USA:

    Lag R2 from UFO/daily deaths ts regr
    00 0.00420934
    01 0.26323479
    02 0.35751984 <-- 2nd bump
    03 0.00000290
    04 0.05189656
    05 0.38536232 <-- best match
    06 0.24090955
    07 0.00624614
    08 0.01052389
    09 0.00153894
    10 0.02952213
    11 0.14455393
    12 0.00925671
    13 0.06713448
    14 0.00710066

    Again it seems if UFO activity goes up then around 5 days later the
    death rate from covid goes up.

    Interesting that the death bump comes a little before the main "new
    case" bump. This probably says something about how the first virus
    worked. A lot of people can fight it off -- in many people the part of
    the immune system in the nose can kill it before it even develops into
    a sniffle.

    So some people fight the virus and it many 6 days before it develops
    into something that would cause them or their doctor to do a test and
    find that it's +ve.

    OTOH some people can not fight the virus and after only 5 days those
    people are dead from it.

    In any case it is entirely suspicious that UFO activity is highly
    correlated with covid cases after a time lag very very very close to
    what we would expect if the time of the UFO activity corresponded to
    initial infection.

    Of course I may be totally mad. That's what I'm hoping, anyway.

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