XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- We've seen previously there is a strong link between reported UFO
activity and certain categories of missing persons.
- Breaking down UFO activity by state allows us to "guesstimate" the
number of associated missing people in each state. We can then get
a "strength" value for each state -- the number of additional
missing people associated with each UFO sighting in each state.
Some states seem to be associated with "net returns" of missing people.
- Given the state-to-state link strength we can ask whether the
presence of military bases is associated with an increase or
decrease in the UFO -> missing persons link.
- It turns out military bases relate to fewer missing persons. This
simultaneously lets "the govt" off the hook for being
responsible for abducting UFO eye witnesses and focuses on what some
UFO's have apparently been doing even recently (the dataset is for
2016-2020).
- Apparently AFB's deter abductions more than Army bases. This also
makes sense for some activity carried out by aerial rather than
surface vehicles.


We've previously noticed a significant connection between UFO
sightings and certain classes of FBI missing persons -- juveniles and
disabled.

It remained to be shown what the causal link was. If increased UFO
activity seemed to predict an increase in missing juveniles was it the
UFO activity that was responsible or was there some other party involved?

A popular folk tale had it that it was SOP for some shadowy bureau of
men wearing dark suits to snatch people that may have seen something
unusual in the sky and extract all possible information using various
means, mostly illegal. Another variant of the story had it that it was
SOP for some shadowy bureau of men wearing dark suits to snatch people
that may have seen something unusual in the sky and use drugs or other techniques to make the witnesses forget what they saw or become so
confused their garbled claims could not be taken seriously.

Can we address any of that with data we actually have to hand?

Unfortunately for making this clear-cut the FBI data on missing
persons doesn't break the data down in every possible way. :)

But a little guesswork and hypothesis testing on the part of s/w that
knows a little about reasoning about causation seems to suggest "it is
not the govt" and that is is likely the UFO activity is directly
responsible for some number of missing persons up to the present day.

The reasoning part goes this way. If (as we know) UFO sightings
predicts missing persons then it may be possible to split the cases up
by state by looking at what proportion of missing persons is explained
by just UFO sightings in each state.

If we can split the link up by state then we can use other information
related to each state to examine how the link is modified by this
other information.

So it's trivial to divide the UFO sightings up into state of incident.
We can then get a "strength" of the link between UFO activity in a
state and missing persons in a state by predicting missing persons
from the state UFO sightings.

We then end up with a table of states and their "link strengths".
This is the table for "missing juveniles":

State link strength
(change in missing juveniles per in-state UFO sighting)
AK -80.9435
AL 55.8288
AR 20.5556
AZ 20.7436
CA 2.99906
CO 6.20955
CT -30.2506
DE 110.389
FL 19.1615
GA 46.3989
HI 8.44815
IA -33.6089
ID 28.1743
IL 49.4824
IN 51.3198
KS 42.6095
KY 26.0642
LA 97.6265
MA 11.2831
MD -54.7427
ME 37.9996
MI 2.52068
MN 41.0604
MO 21.121
MS 51.3451
MT -13.7214
NC 3.49402
ND -27.3826
NE 53.2958
NH 38.104
NJ -0.568074
NM 7.09328
NV -14.4256
NY -0.976347
OH 12.4441
OK 2.61706
OR -22.6119
PA 4.30939
RI -38.9617
SC 42.575
SD -59.0127
TN 14.2172
TX 14.726
UT 23.9683
VA -20.793
VT -338.572
WA 11.6061
WI 28.1213
WV -196.638
WY 105.021

The "link strengths" are simply the \betas from the appropriate
time-series regression. The \beta shows if sightings in the given
state increase by 1 per month then the effect on missing juveniles is
on average \beta. The \beta we note can be -ve, meaning activity in
*some* states seems to be associated with a net "return" of missing juveniles.

We can now ask some interesting questions like "does the presence of
more Army bases associate with an increased or decreased \beta". Does
the presence of military bases associate with more missing people in
which case maybe the military is the group doing the abducting for
reasons like the ones above, or does the presence of military bases
decrease the \beta IOW act as a deterrent on what would seem to be
actual abduction of people by UFOs.

The stats for Army and AF bases were run independently. It acts as a
test of consistency. But basically we want to know if the AF beats the
Army or not.


Army Bases and missing people (disabled): -----------------------------------------

(AUTO CORR; estimated rho = 0.310561)
y = -0.20876*x + 3.31368
beta in -0.20876 +- 0.220717 95% CI
alpha in 3.31368 +- 1.0091
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.968390
calculated Spearman corr = -0.255318
Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; accept H0:no_effect
r2 = 0.07006530

Data:
State Number of Army \beta(dis) estimated \beta(dis) from model
bases
AL 3 -1.3447 2.6874*(model 1sd too high)
AZ 5 1.51734 2.26988
CA 19 0.677852 -0.65276
CO 6 2.46491 2.06112
CT 1 2.22528 3.10492
DE 1 3.51092 3.10492
FL 6 1.13167 2.06112
GA 5 2.40745 2.26988
HI 8 4.08739 1.6436
IA 3 3.38776 2.6874
IL 3 4.6466 2.6874
IN 3 4.07927 2.6874
KS 6 0.595645 2.06112
KY 3 3.25928 2.6874
LA 4 2.63112 2.47864
MA 4 1.57048 2.47864
MD 4 -1.4117 2.47864*(+1)
ME 4 -0.718164 2.47864*(+1)
MI 3 2.41316 2.6874
MN 2 6.56708 2.89616*(-1)
MO 2 2.97658 2.89616
MT 1 6.10703 3.10492*(-1)
NC 5 0.794651 2.26988
ND 1 2.86783 3.10492
NE 1 0.317921 3.10492
NH 1 4.69578 3.10492
NJ 2 2.67822 2.89616
NM 3 -0.0590408 2.6874
NV 1 1.19447 3.10492
NY 5 1.38299 2.26988
OH 4 0.451624 2.47864
OK 4 2.88433 2.47864
OR 2 1.25544 2.89616
PA 6 -1.39977 2.06112*
SC 2 1.9117 2.89616
SD 1 2.98106 3.10492
TN 3 0.817876 2.6874
TX 13 -0.170887 0.599799
UT 4 5.53006 2.47864*
VA 13 -0.35279 0.599799
WA 3 3.71721 2.6874
WI 2 1.86955 2.89616
WV 1 -0.410038 3.10492*
UT 4 5.53006 2.47864*
VA 13 -0.35279 0.599799
VT 1 -4.25227 3.10492**(+2sd)
WA 3 3.71721 2.6874
WI 2 1.86955 2.89616
WV 1 -0.410038 3.10492*
WY 2 12.5082 2.89616**(-2sd)


Air Force Bases and missing persons (disabled): -----------------------------------------------

(AUTO CORR; estimated rho = 0.454134)
y = -0.484281*x + 3.94788
beta in -0.484281 +- 0.467705 95% CI
alpha in 3.94788 +- 1.05091
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.978593
calculated Spearman corr = -0.070887
Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; accept H0:no_effect
r2 = 0.11209464

State #AFBs \beta(dis) estimated \beta(dis_
AL 1 -1.3447 3.4636*(estimate +1sd too high) AZ 1 1.51734 3.4636
CA 1 0.677852 3.4636*(+1)
CO 1 2.46491 3.4636
DE 1 3.51092 3.4636
FL 1 1.13167 3.4636
GA 4 2.40745 2.01076
HI 1 4.08739 3.4636
IL 1 4.6466 3.4636
IN 3 4.07927 2.49504
KS 1 0.595645 3.4636*(+1)
LA 2 2.63112 2.97932
MA 2 1.57048 2.97932
MD 1 -1.4117 3.4636*(-1)
MI 1 2.41316 3.4636
MO 2 2.97658 2.97932
MT 1 6.10703 3.4636
NC 3 0.794651 2.49504
ND 3 2.86783 2.49504
NE 2 0.317921 2.97932
NJ 1 2.67822 3.4636
NM 6 -0.0590408 1.0422
NV 1 1.19447 3.4636
OH 2 0.451624 2.97932
OK 5 2.88433 1.52648
SC 1 1.9117 3.4636
SD 2 2.98106 2.97932
TN 2 0.817876 2.97932
TX 7 -0.170887 0.557919
UT 1 5.53006 3.4636
VA 1 -0.35279 3.4636*
WA 1 3.71721 3.4636
TX 7 -0.170887 0.557919
UT 1 5.53006 3.4636
VA 1 -0.35279 3.4636*
WA 1 3.71721 3.4636
WY 1 12.5082 3.4636**(-2sd)


It turns out there is no effect of either Army or AFB on the link for
missing juveniles.


So the upshot seems to be there is a "weak" effect. The presence of
more military bases in a state seems to be associated with a reduced
number of missing disabled people seemingly linked with in-state UFO activity.

The effect is characterised as "weak" because while it passes 1 of the
stat tests (T-test on the \beta) is fails another stat test (rank corr
test). While the T-test is 95% or more sure the patterns can not be
just luck it would have been nice if the states with more bases
generally saw the strongest links.

But the R2 in both models above are not large meaning there is a lot
of noise in the data. And this is partly because we could not find the
"real" link between UFO activity and missing people in each state, but
only try to deduce the missing people in a given state from the UFO
activity in that state (given there *is* a strong 2-test link between country-wide UFO activity and country-wide missing persons).

So we will just have to settle!


Apparently each AFB is associated with a reduction in the \beta of
around .5 points, while each Army base is associated with a reduction
of around .2 points. These numbers simultaneously tend to argue "the
govt" in the form of the Army or AF is not in the business of
disappearing young and/or disabled people that may have reported a
UFO, that a link between UFO activity and missing persons is as
blatant as it appears -- UFO's are abducting people -- and that the
presence of AFB's in particular around the state tends to deter that.

--
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