XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We use standard astro code to calculate the position of the planets
day by day between 2000 and 2020 and the curves are matched against
the daily UFO sightings from NUFORC.
- Many curves show very close matches when lagged by the appropriate
number of days. It seems UFO sightings up-tick when some planets are
closer to the earth or in favorable positions.
- The distance between Earth and Neptune seems to be associated with a
very similar curve in daily UFO sightings about 21 days later. This
corresponds with a straight-line speed around 2500 km/sec.
- The "ecliptic longitude" of some planets also seems to match
up-ticks in UFO sightings after being lagged the appropriate
number of days. In particular the position of Jupiter seems to be
associated with a statistically significant increase in UFO
sightings around 56 days later (a straight line speed around 160
km/sec). We interpret this as slingshotting. Maybe some UFO's save
power when they can, or the overall slower X-Jupiter-Earth route is
used for cargo or other special purposes.


I've turned the screws on the programs that have been trying to
calculate the flight time of UFO's esp from the outer planets.

The new method uses a simple program that calculates the position of
planets for each day from 1 Jan 2000 using standard astro code. (It
uses fitting functions determined by other people supposedly good to
show the position of each planet in the earth's sky accurate to ~2 arc
mins between 2000 and ~2100).

If UFO's fly (although not necessarily call it home) from a planet and
earth then we might assume the closer that planet is to earth then the
more often the trip might be undertaken. Hence we might look for
changes in UFO sightings that "look like" the curve of the planet's
distance, possibly lagged by some number of days indicating the "trip time".

We've previous done this operation with a granularity of months,
finding there are bumps in the similarly between planetary distances
and UFO sightings that suggest flight time between at least the outer
planets and earth take a matter of several months. Our calculated avg
speed using that method came out around 850 km/sec.

So let's repeat that with the new program on the scale of days and see
if we can improve the estimate.

Running much the same procedure -- looking for similarities between
the earth-planet distance curve time-shifted from 0 to 100 days and
the daily UFO sighting data from NUFORC 2006-2020 we find some
spectacular "bumps" where the 2 curves are "90% similar" at non-zero time-shifts/lags.

The beauty part of using a program that models the solar system is we
can not only compare the earth-planet distances but can select the
curve of any parameter to compare against UFO sightings. (The AI s/w
thought of this :). E.g. one parameter that seems to also show bumps
is the "longitude" of some planets. "For some reason" the position of
some planets seems to trigger a rise in UFO sightings. The
interpretation of this includes at least the idea some trips involve "slingshots". I.e. some UFO's appear to travel from the outer solar
system and benefit from a close fly-by of Jupiter to boost their
speed, reduce travel time, and save some energy.

The model that showed the best R2 ("explanation power") was the
distance between Neptune and Earth lagged by 21 days. I.e. as Neptune
and Earth get closer and closer at some times of some years the curve
in the day to day UFO sightings increases in closer-than-random
similarity. I mean REALLY non-random.

The plot of Neptune-Earth distance (X axis) versus number of daily UFO sightings (Y axis) is here:

<kymhorsell.com/UFO/neptune4-xbin.02o1L21.gif>

The name of the file comes from the relevant AI program that likes to
name things in what it considers a logical fashion. Some of the
code tell me what smoothing and other manipulation was performed
to get the plot. The "L21" says the lag between
change-in-Neptune-distance and change-in-UFO-sightings was 21 days.
The "4" says it is talking about the Neptune-Earth distance and not
one of the other possible parameters.

This spectacular match suggests if UFO's are flying from Neptune to
Earth and sparking an up-tick in various types of UFO sightings over N
Am then it may be taking 21 days to make the trip.

Neptune is 30 AU out meaning we're talking about speeds of around 2500
km/sec if the path is a straight line.

This is a considerable improvement on our first measurement of 850
km/sec but the change is not particularly surprising given the
improvement in the modelling methodology.

As a 2nd example we can look at a second "good model" comparing the
longitude (angle between Jupiter's position and the position of its
closest approach to the sun -- essentially the "distance" Jupiter has
travelled since it's previous perihelion).

The plot is here:

<kymhorsell.com/UFO/jupiter3-ybin2o1.5L56.gif>

The "3" tells me we're talking about the longitude, some of the other
bits and pieces tell me what kind of smoothing happened, and the "L56"
says the relevant Jupiter curve best matched the UFO sightings curve
after it was lagged 56 days.

This suggests certain trips from the outer solar system are dependent
on the position of Jupiter and that when it's in the "right" position
UFO sightings up-tick 56 days later. This has the smell of a gravity
boosted trip -- NASA use the same idea to increase the speed of probes
(mostly) going *out* to the outer planets. You aim your probe to
arrive near Jupiter and start falling toward the massive lump,
increasing speed sometimes a few km/sec. Jupiter continues along in
its orbit so the probe doesn't get captured, but it's course is
changed and speed boosted a bit to continue the rest of the trip.

We can see from the L56 part any UFO trip using this route seems to
take much longer than the "usual" speed indicated by the Neptune
result. 56 days between Jupiter and Earth is a measly 161 km/sec --
almost 16 times slower than the Neptune-Earth speed, above.

Maybe it's for cargo or economy class tourists.


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