XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Using a slightly modified procedure from last time we find the best
match between the distance to each planet and UFO sightings data. We
expect the further a planet is from earth the less often it might be
worth making the trip.
- By adding in a lag of 0..6m we can roughly estimate how fast any UFO
trip between various planets and the earth takes. If they are "real
ET's" and come from some other star we'd expect at least some UFO's
to zip around pretty fast.
- The "most likely" model shows sightings of Disk type UFO's appear to
ebb and flow in relation to the distance to Uranus but lagged by 2 months.
- An average trip between Uranus and Earth seems to clock a Disk at
850 km/sec. Quick by NASA standards but definitely not
interstellar.


In a previous post we looked at the connection between planetary
positions and UFO sighting numbers.

If UFO's have a "space capability" as scuttlebutt from former military
intel people suggests we might suspect that the closer some planet or
planets are to earth, the more often UFO's might try out that
capability. We might expect if we lined up the data on how far
different planets were from earth month by month, there might be a beyond-chance correlation between the distance data and the sighting data.

And that's what we found. In fact we found that certain UFO types seem
to be associated with different planets. Some seem to be seen most
often when the earth is approx at its closest to Pluto, some are
correlated with the distance to Neptune and Uranus, and a couple types
are correlated with the distance to Mercury and Venus.

It seems the folks in question could be well-travelled.

But now the $64 question. How fast can they move over distance? If
UFO's are related to interstellar ET then we'd expect at least some
form of UFO could be shown to zip around the solar system at near
light speeds. At least.

If, OTOH, no UFO can be associated with high speed interplanetary
trips then we need to knock off a few points from the probability
UFO's are connected with interstellar folks. Of course there would
still be the possibility interstellar craft are not often see around
the atm.

But how to figure out how fast UFO's can move?

The principle we'll use is pretty simple. Instead of seeing if the
stance to Pluto correlates with UFO sightings in the same month, we'll
lag the distance data and see if the distance to Pluto X months back
correlates with the UFO sighting numbers now. By trying different lag
periods we'll get a feel if trip times with associated planets take
essentially no time or maybe several months.

Adding in the little mod to run various lags from 0 to 6 months we run
our little program from last time that compares each type of UFO
("shape") against each planet in the solar system and finds which set
of parameters gives the highest R2, the so-called "explanation power"
of a simple regression.

Here are the top10 results ordered desc by R2:


UFO type Planet Long Transf Lag R2
(rev) (m)
Disk uranus 0.499 2 0.31509701
Disk uranus 0.601 x 1 0.31333694
Disk uranus 0.601 1 0.30427910
Disk neptune 0.165 3 0.30330987
Disk neptune 0.583 4 0.30285802
Disk neptune 0.583 x 4 0.30257089
Disk neptune 0.761 x 2 0.30045173
Disk neptune 0.513 x 5 0.30027118
Disk uranus 0.499 x 2 0.29999309
Disk pluto 0.970 x 6 0.29173311


All the top results refer to "Disk" type UFOs. If seems the
month-to-month distance to Uranus matches around 32% of the
month-to-month variation in number if Disk UFO sightings as recorded
by NUFORC.

The Long and Transf columns say how the s/w forced the best match it
could. The details are not important at the moment.

The Lag column shows us how many months later the best match was
found. In line 1 is shows Disk sightings are best matched against the
distance to uranus 2 months ago. I.e. consistent with the idea it
takes around 2 months over the average distance between Uranus and
earth before a Disk UFO ends up as a "sighting" statistic.

Since Uranus is around 30 AU from the earth on average, that puts the
speed of a Disk around 850 km/sec.

Definitely not an interstellar speed.

While the estimate may be rough, it seems "0 time" transit between
planets is not a UFO thing. The data had every chance to throw up a "0
lag" as one of the top 10 models and it didn't show up. So trips
taking at least 1m seems to be the norm.

--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)