XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The ebb and flow of UFO sightings looks suspiciously similar to a
curve of the distance to certain outer planets. This supports the
idea that many UFO types have some connection with Uranus, Neptune
and/or Pluto or objects further out.
- No UFO type seems to favor Mars, Jupiter or Saturn as a possible
base. The curve of the distance to these planets looks nothing like
the monthly curve of UFO sightings.
- A couple UFO types best match the "rapid" changing positions Mercury
and/or Venus. But the R2 "explanation power" for these 2 cases are
much less than the link between Disk type UFO's and the outer planets.
- A "link" doesn't prove that certain UFO's "come from" another
planet. Just that -- for some reason -- the movement of a
particular planet seems to predict beyond chance rises and falls in
the sightings of that UFO type.
- It may be possible to determine whether UFO's fly between other
planets and earth and, if so, how fast they cover interplanetary
distances by using a more precise model for planetary position than
the current one. If we find UFO's likely travel "instantaneously"
it may be evidence at least some of them are indeed ET if not interstellar.


In a previous post (<rt5tft$17l2$1@gioia.aioe.org>) we looked at
correlating UFO sightings (the NUFORC monthly counts) against the
positions of selected planets. Keeping in mind a particular intel
"insider" has publicly mentioned there is a "ufo base" on Mars we were
not too surprised to see there was a significant correlation between
the position of Mars in its orbit and the ebb and flow of UFO sightings.

However, it was even more interesting to see he position of Saturn was
"far more" correlated with the pattern of sightings than the
position of Mars.

The various s/w I use have now discovered some even more significant relationships between the UFO sighting data and planetary positions,
breaking down which UFO "shapes" are best correlated with the
positions of each planet + Pluto (recently discovered to be another
surprise potential location for life in our lil family).

Based on just the NUFORC data from 2006 (when a significant change of methodology makes mixing prior data problematic, esp when broken down
by shape or color categories) we find:

Shape Planet Long R2

Disk Uranus 0.667 0.31647975
Other Pluto 0.068 0.26973047
Cigar Neptune 0.418 0.26517661
Oval Pluto 0.020 0.26358568
All Neptune 0.457 0.25074501
Light Uranus 0.715 0.24079810
Triangle Neptune 0.522 0.23240760
Circle Pluto 0.537 0.21817319
Unknown Uranus 0.700 0.21469231
Rectangle Pluto 0.506 0.21248348
Flash Neptune 0.510 0.21068926
Sphere Pluto 0.475 0.19403847
Chevron Pluto 0.679 0.18587672
Egg Pluto 0.414 0.16995025
Teardrop Neptune 0.965 0.14812345
Diamond Pluto 0.142 0.12682502
Changing Pluto 0.505 0.12291042
Formation Uranus 0.305 0.12289519
Fireball Pluto 0.079 0.10150917
Cross Venus 0.245 0.05241401
Cone Mercury 0.710 0.02840117

The results are somewhat confusing but welcome to Data Science!

The table is ordered by "most likely" to "least likely". So the
assignment of "Disk" type UFO's to "Uranus" is much more likely to be
correct than the assignment of "Cone" type UFO's to "Mercury".

By "assignment" I mean the orbit for the relevant planet or an object
at the same distance from the sun and at the specified ecliptic
longitude on Jan 1 1900 has a statistically significant correlation
with NUFORC monthly sightings from 2006-2020. The confidence of the
statistical tests combined is around 99%. There's a 1% chance each
result could be entirely due to coincidences in the dataset rather
than anything "real".

Given Pluto has moved so little over the 2006-2020 period it's
possible any position in an (standard) anticlockwise orbit around the
sun at distances more than 30 AU are about equivalent to "Pluto" for
these calculations.

The calculation essentially assumes sightings of UFO type X include a
component that have travelled a very high speed from the planet
specified in a straight line to earth. It is assumed the closer the
planet is to earth the more of type X ufos will make the trip. The
s/w uses various functions and transforms to make the curve of
planetary distance as similar as possible to the curve for monthly
ufo sightings. Some of these curves may be physically meaningless but
are meant to give a "most generous" interpretation of the similarity
between the 2 curves.

It seems the data shows most ufo types seem to ebb and flow as if they
were associated with a body like Pluto, orbiting fairly slowly far out
in the regular solar system. As mentioned, "Pluto" could also mean any
objects further out in the Kuiper Belt (now known to have a sharp
outer edge) or even the Oort Cloud.

Most of the other UFO types are assigned to one of the outer icy
giants Neptune/Uranus. The positions of Jupiter and Saturn are no
longer preferred to these outer planets (as opposite the the original
posting that found Saturn to be the most likely of the planets tested).

No ufo type was found to correlate best with the position of Mars.

But a couple of types could not be correlated with the outer planets
and matched better with Venus and Mercury.

In a previous post we found the area density of observations of Cone
type ufo's seemed to be the only type that was independent of
placement of US Army or AF bases. All the other types showed a decline
in density moving toward AF bases that indicated those types of UFO's
seemed to be avoiding interception by military aircraft or, in some
cases, "interception" by a hypersonic G2A missile. But the Cone type
showed no variation in regard to any type of military based -- it was
roughly equally likely to appear in any US state meaning either it was
only avoiding something that flew at "infinite" speed -- e.g. being
seen -- or maybe it was the more heavily armored UFO and did not fly defensively at all.

Given there is this (let's say) weak evidence Cone types may be based
or visit or at least have appearances that change suspiciously in
accord with the distance to Mercury, maybe they are made of tougher
stuff than the other types.

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