XPost: alt.ufo.reports

If you give me someone's credit card records I can tell you where
and when the holder will buy something, what it will be and how much
they'll spend on it.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Comparing UFO sighting data and earthquake data suggests where the
phenomenon might be based and the geographic regions it tends to
travel to and from.
- Certain regions seem to be the "source" of some significant part of
the traffic whereas others suggest "destinations". Pinning down
these regions might be key to determining "what they are
doing". Although preliminary data suggests "farming" with maybe a
spot of abduction.
- Some of the data suggests a degree of "predictive ability" for
UFO's. They seem able to judge some characteristics of further
quakes and less able to judge others. "Predictive ability" that
appears too might might correspond with some degree of causing the
related phenomena.


It seems possible to predict from where and to where UFO's are flying
based on a "shake the tree and see what falls out" principle.

In this report we'll use earthquakes of mag >= 5 to supply a realistic
shaking. I'll use the data 2006-2020 from from GEOFON GFZ Potsdam for
timing and location of the shaking and NUFORC's public sighting data
for the falling out of trees part of the relationship.

Here we'll only look at the general form of the results. Later we'll
break it down by UFO type (usu shape and/or color) and even later try
to pin down specific geographic locations (within 1 mn km2, anyway :)
that seem to be the focus of "source" and "destination" traffic.

I'll again rely on some s/w to perform robust analysis, handle some of
the reasoning about what could possibly be the cause of what, and dig
out the most interesting results for a large number of calculations.

The procedure will involve comparing the "shape" of the data against
the UFO sighting record and finding where they are too similar to be a
fluke. We will look at the location of groups of earthquakes at the
resolution of 1 month and 10 deg bands of latitude and longitude, as
well as the world-wide averages for quake latitude, longitude and depth.

For each data-set we'll try various strategies to bring out higher
degrees of similarly between the "stimulus" (quake) and "response"
(sighting) data. Some of these transformations are seemingly bizarre
but that's what the AI s/w is for -- to find bizarre things that it
knows from wide experience will "work" even if they would not be
thought of by a human being.

We'll also use a limited amount of time shifting to look for
matches. We can move the "stimulus" back and forward by up to +-12
months to look for a match. -ve shift are matching later stimulus
against earlier response and can illustrate -- in the case of a
rational phenomenon -- a degree of anticipation. In this case, perhaps
UFO's can determine up to a year in advance whether a moderately large
cluster of earthquakes will occur and take appropriate steps.

In the case of +ve time shifts we are comparing earlier stimulus
against later response and underlining whether there is some delay in
the test animal's response in interpreting the stimulus and acting on it.

It turns out there are very few stimulus/response patterns that are statistically significant.

The summary results are:

Quake Data Lag R2 beta 90% CI
(m)
sqrtqdepth 5 0.818724 -75.7413 14.1379 sqrtqcounts -7 0.437159 -22.8378 8.17623 sqrtqlat 12 0.302935 19.2428 8.7406
sqrtqlng -10 0.20577 -11.0352 5.03491

All of these results are extremely robust -- essentially tested at 1% significance. IOW there is only about 1 chance in 100 any one of them
might be due to just some lucky coincidence in the data. There is
therefore about 95% chance all 4 of them together are non-chance.

If you plot any of them they look like points scattered very close to a straight line. Note all the data are subject to a SQRT transform. (In
the case of latitude and longitude is a "signed sqrt" that transfers
any -ve sign of the argument to the final value of the sqrt).

The top result -- where the R2 says the data is least noisy and the
relative error in the \beta is least -- says deeper quakes seem to
result 5m later in fewer UFO sightings. This suggests UFO's could be
based quite deep under the earth. A big disturbance down there might
cause them to "lock down". Remember, this is the overall pattern
world-wide and may be (later) contradicted by the situation in specific latitude or longitude bands.

The 2nd line says more earthquakes are related to lower UFO
sightings. But -- unusually -- the Lag indicates 7m of anticipation
is involved. Apparently the reduction in UFO sightings happens 7m
before the earthquakes actually happen. This suggests 2 possibilities --
(a) UFO's can predict earthquake clusters quite far out,
(b) all that underground base building make be *causing* at least
some earthquake activity.

#3 relates the "average latitude" of earthquakes in a given month
with UFO activity/sightings. The centroid of monthly quake activity
moves a little between the N and S hem -- generally only up to 10 deg
from the equator. But it seems the further N the center of quake
activity is, the more UFO sightings are to be expected about 12m
later. The further S quake activity moves the less UFO activity is
expected.

Remember "UFO activity" is a shorthand for "Sightings in the NUFORC
database" which we might take to be a proxy of global UFO activity.

My interpretation of "more activity" and "less activity" with
respect to earthquakes is as follows:
- More activity suggests an quake is striking close to home and the
UFO's have to temporarily vacate the region. When a big shake hits
LA a lot of people run out into the streets or drive into the desert.
- Less activity suggests quakes are striking in some region UFO's
generally fly to for work or recreation. The more quakes that hit
Disney World the less patronage they might expect.

So together these considerations suggests UFO's live mostly
underground somewhere in the N Hem and seem to regularly travel to
other locations in the S Hem for reasons unknown unless you look at
the plankton data.

Finally, the last line suggests there is a similar relationship
between longitude and sightings as with latitude. More quakes in the
W Hem are associated with more UFO activity; more quakes in the W Hem
are associated with less UFO activity. Interestingly, this
relationship has a -ve lag -- meaning the UFO's may be planning their
E/W distribution 10m in advance because they have some idea when and
where quakes will be happening.

While the R2 is quite high for the "depth" relationship, they are moderate
or low for the others. This suggests for the -ve lags the UFO model
for quakes is more certain of the number than longitude of quake clusters.



In subsequent posts we'll narrow down some of the regions involved and
divide things up by UFO type to look at the different patterns that emerge.


In another study in preparation I'll compare FBI missing person data
with UFO sighting data. Things have have been reported since the 1960s
at least seem to be consistent with the data. Something about
triangle UFOs and abductions seems to fall out of the analysis without
any prompting. At least some of those UFO abduction stories might have
a basis in fact and vaguely in line with John Mack's claims.

--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)