XPost: alt.ufo.reports

Executive Summary:
- We create a predictive model for aircraft crashes since the 1900s.
- The model finds about 45% of crashes are explained by weather
phenomena associated with key regions in the world, levels of
greenhouse gases, and sunspots (as a proxy for "space weather").
- Adding in data for UFO sightings finds no additional predictive
power. Statistical tests show the impact of UFO sightings on
aircraft crashes relative to the effect of the weather factors found
is nil. If anything, more UFO sightings in a month is associated
with slightly fewer aircraft crashes.
- This result is consistent with a prev model that finds there is
statistically no effect of UFO activity on US power failures.


Preview of next study:
While UFO's seem to have a "light footprint" for aircraft accidents
and power failures, it seems there is a noticeable relationship with
mass animal deaths. The story is not uniform. Perhaps surprisingly for
aircraft that zip around the atm at 2 km/s pulling 40g turns the link
with mass bird deaths is negligible. However sea animals including
fish, dolphins and turtles are not so lucky. More interestingly, the
list of countries that seem to be most affected by UFO-related mass
animal deaths have a startling list of properties that underline some
previously suspicions (interest in nuclear power and industrial
capability) but highlight some others previously unsuspected
(e.g. sexual equality). Sounds mad? Don't' worry -- I'll show you the
hard numbers. :)


We've previously seen UFO's appear to fly defensively vis a vis
positioning of US AFB's with some types apparently trying to avoid
contact with military aircraft (i.e. the density of sightings falls
off approx linearly toward AFBs) and others appear to avoid attack
from G2A missiles (i.e. the density drops off quadratically toward AFBs).

We've also seen despite reports of UFO's hovering over power lines and
nuclear plants there seems to be statistically no correlation (i.e. 0
falls inside the 5% confidence interval) with UFO sightings and US
power outages.

Let's now look at any connection between UFO's and aircraft accidents.

It's "often" reported that lights or other odd objects follow
passenger or other aircraft. Sometimes objects are said to "buzz" or
"block the path" of aircraft and there is growing evidence that
airliners are sometimes covertly trailed for long periods by small
flying objects for reasons best known to themselves.

Does any of this appear to be related to air crashes?

As usual I take my UFO data from the public records at NUFORC. The
airplane crash info comes from <http://www.planecrashinfo.com/>.

The procedure I will use here is a variant of some I've discussed
before. We want to build a predictive model that relates any data
available with the pattern of airplane crashes. The algorithm has
access to any of the (let me just check today's tally) 8788 data
series I've snaffled over the years. In addition the various "AI
tools" I use can decide to upload data from NOAA, wikipedia or any
other relevant source it can locate via google search and google data.

We want to find out "how much" of aircraft accidents is explained by
everything else -- mostly weather data we might expect -- but THEN the
s/w will add in data on UFO sightings (with suitable twiddling to
remove a host of biases and known methodology changes in the relevant
dataset) and decide whether (a) the addition improves the predictions
of the model, and (b) whether there is statistical evidence the
addition of UFO data was justified. And just for fun we can also see
whether the addition of UFO data, justified or not, actually indicates
"more UFOs" (or more UFO sightings) is related to more accidents or
fewer accidents.

After many minutes of crunching through the data the "best" model the
s/w can find is as follows:

REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS *****************************************
VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STAND. ERROR T - VALUE P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
date 0.01500 0.00071 21.00488 0.00000
x1 -0.00001 0.00016 -0.03931 0.96865
x2 -0.01354 0.00108 -12.56573 0.00000
x3 -0.07493 0.01361 -5.50663 0.00000
x4 0.00118 0.00022 5.30961 0.00000
x5 -0.01806 0.00627 -2.87990 0.00406
x6 -0.04927 0.01262 -3.90397 0.00010
x7 0.00070 0.00017 4.19466 0.00003
x8 -0.06421 0.00900 -7.13795 0.00000
CONSTANT -5.31418 3.26859 -1.62583 0.10428 WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES = 255.70540
DEGREES OF FREEDOM = 1065
SCALE ESTIMATE = 0.49000
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) = 0.44074
THE F-VALUE = 93.257 (WITH 9 AND 1065 DF) P - VALUE = 0.00000
THERE ARE 1075 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT.
AVERAGE WEIGHT = 0.96499


The model explains about 44% of aircraft accidents 1908-2017. Most of
the variables found to be relevant from the 1000s of weather data
available relate to conditions in relatively small areas of the
world. E.g. SoCal, off the coast of S India, off the coast of S Japan (suspiciously the region where an "underwater pyramid" has been
found), and the sea between the N and S islands of New Zealand.

Other data found to be "essential" to explain aircraft crashes are atm
levels of CO2, atm levels of N2O ("laughing gas") and sunspots. It
seems each of these things, in some way, influences aircraft
flight. E.g. sunspots govern "space weather" that can effect
satellites or aircraft instruments. CO2 and N2O are so-called
Greenhouse Gases and their accumulation is leading to an increase in
global temperatures and the higher the global temperature most experts
accept the more severe at least some types of weather. N2O is
additionally of interest because it increased due to ocean plankton
that bloom several times a year. Jot that down on your pads for later
because it will come up again and again. :)

And, finally, the variable marked "x1" above is the twiddled UFO
sighting data month-by-month from the NUFORC. Twiddles include
removing the bias that sees more sightings reported on Sat than Mon
and the advent of web reporting in 2006 that saw a 10x increase in
reports overnight.

From the "x1" line we see the P-VAL in the last column says 96.8%.
This means any influence of UFO sightings in aircraft crashes is
around 97% likely to be just chance -- there is no systematic
effect. It essentially says the coefficient's 5% confidence interval
includes 0 -- meaning the \beta is statistically very likely to
"really" be 0 and not the values the program has listed as the nominal estimate.

In any case the nominal \beta is -.00001. In months with 1000s of
sightings there is nominally found to be O(.1) LESS aircraft crash than
months with few sightings. If anything, more UFO's have a very small "protective" effect.

--
COVID-19 bill started a 180-day countdown for UFO disclosures
New York Post, 30 Dec 2020
The report must address "observed airborne objects that have not been identified" and should include a "detailed analysis of unidentified
phenomena data ...

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 15 Dec 2020 13:56Z
New insights into recent controversial claims about a "Galactic
Federation" and aliens by Israel's former space chief!
#galacticfederation #aliens #space #ufo #ufotwitter <https://t.co/qMSrGHpXHc>loom.ly/KmtorXQ
[Seems to be re-spin of well-known conspiracy theories dating back to Eisenhower admin. The only new info relates to current US military
thinking that UFO/UAF are real but not necessarily ET].

[Extinction Risk:]
Dr. Jeremy Kerr @jetkerr 15 Dec 2020 15:00Z
New paper on dispersal & persistence strategies enabling species
survival thru climate change, including wrt growing frequency of
extreme events. Capacity to predict extinction risk is becoming a
reality - rapid advances in #cdnsci for #ClimateChange. <https://t.co/mzoQfw00eP>bit.ly/3nyw9y4 pic.twitter.com/XIUlMxa2kM

Honeybees found using tools, in a first-to repel giant hornet attacks
National Geographic, 09 Dec 2020
In Vietnam, Asian honeybees use feces to ward off the cousins of "murder hornets." The finding could help protect bees in other countries with
invasive wasps.

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 10 Dec 2020 13:50Z
Could invisibility cloaks really become a thing? Using "skin" that can
mimic either thermal characteristics or visible colors of any given environment, researchers say it may be possible to "disappear." #invesibilitycloak #nextgentechnology <https://t.co/alIgyuvk4n>buff.ly/3qJiQgh

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)