XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- A perhaps chance -ve corr between N Hem and S Hem UFO sightings allows
us to "guesstimate" a rough upper bound on the number of objects that
may be responsible for UFO sightings.
- UFO sightings density wrt US military bases allows us to categorize
types of UFO.

The coverage of the S Hem in some of the big ufo sighting datasets is
a bit spotty. Looking at the NUFORC data upto mid 2020 it seems only
about 1/10th of sightings reported to AUS- and NZ-based organisations
seem to be making it into N Hem databases.

While sightings in at least AUS appear to be very much on the decline
(and there seem to be interesting reasons for this that will be
covered in a later post) the data I managed to scrape, beg, borrow or
the other thing suggest an even more interesting possibility. That
the number of "objects" related to UFO sightings may be finite and
relatively small.

This finding comes from the observation that N Hem and S Hem sightings
are negatively correlated. I.e. the data shows when there are more
sightings in the N Hem there are fewer in the S Hem, and vice versa.

Here is the basic data for sightings in the S Hem from the New
Zealand, NSW, Qld, Vic and WA ufo orgs:

Year.mm #sightings
1978.79 1 1988.04 2 1993.04 2 1993.62 2 1992.12 1
1992.88 1 1997.71 5 1997.96 1 1997.54 1 1997.46 3
1998.04 6 1998.12 4 1998.29 12 1998.38 26 1998.46 10
1998.54 18 1998.62 40 1997.62 1 1997.79 1 1998.71 18
1998.79 26 2000.62 16 2000.71 10 1999.79 6 1998.88 24
1998.96 22 1999.04 24 1999.12 20 1999.21 18 1999.29 48
1999.38 30 1999.46 37 1999.54 25 1999.62 20 1999.71 12
1999.88 7 1999.96 26 2000.04 23 2000.12 15 2000.21 22
2000.29 12 2000.38 23 2000.46 9 2000.54 14 2000.79 4
2001.04 10 2001.12 18 2001.21 18 2001.29 24 2001.38 10
2001.46 14 2001.54 18 2000.88 10 2000.96 14 2002.46 22
2002.62 12 2002.71 12 2002.79 14 2002.88 2 2003.04 4
2003.12 4 2003.21 6 2003.29 12 2003.38 12 2003.46 14
2002.54 28 2001.62 10 2001.71 12 2001.79 14 2001.96 4
2002.04 2 2002.12 12 2002.21 10 2002.29 14 2002.38 12
2004.21 12 2003.62 22 2003.71 4 2003.79 6 2003.88 2
2003.96 6 2004.04 10 2004.12 18 2003.54 14 2005.21 10
2004.29 12 2004.38 12 2004.46 8 2004.54 6 2004.62 20
2004.71 12 2004.79 4 2004.88 14 2004.96 18 2005.04 2
2005.12 2 2005.46 10 2005.54 4 2005.62 16 2005.71 6
2005.79 12 2005.88 2 2005.96 20 2006.04 4 2006.12 12
2006.29 16 2006.46 8 2006.54 14 2006.62 8 2006.71 16
2006.79 10 2006.88 10 2006.96 10 2007.04 10 2007.12 8
2006.21 8 2007.21 14 2006.38 38 2007.29 16 2007.46 2
2007.54 2 2007.62 14 2007.71 14 2007.79 8 2007.88 24
2007.38 14 2009.79 4 2008.88 10 2007.96 4 2008.04 18
2008.12 12 2008.21 10 2008.29 8 2008.38 14 2008.46 12
2008.54 12 2008.62 6 2008.71 12 2008.79 8 2008.96 16
2009.04 8 2009.21 24 2009.29 16 2009.38 6 2009.46 4
2009.54 6 2009.62 22 2009.71 8 2009.96 6 2010.04 8
2010.12 2 2010.21 6 2010.29 14 2009.88 12 2010.62 2
2010.71 6 2010.88 2 2011.12 2 2011.21 2 2012.21 2
2011.29 8 2011.38 4 2011.46 2 2011.79 2 2012.12 2
2012.29 16 2012.38 8 2012.46 8 2012.54 4 2012.62 8
2015.62 4 2015.54 2 2015.79 2 2016.38 4 2016.54 2
2016.62 2 2016.79 4 2016.88 4 2017.04 4 2017.12 4
2017.21 18 2017.38 20 2017.46 6 2017.62 10 2017.79 4
2016.96 6 2016.12 2 2016.29 2 2018.04 2 2018.29 2

And when you compare the NHem (e.g. from NUFORC) and SHem data you get
the regression model:

Durbin-Watson d = 1.388633
d < dL (1.683684): Positive auto-corr at 5%
Auto corr detected: estimated rho = 0.312167
y = -0.00623419*x + 10.0599
beta in -0.00623419 +- 0.00440448 90% CI
alpha in 10.0599 +- 1.43569
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.989607
r2 = 0.0549856
calculated Spearman corr = -0.286898
Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%

The "critical number" is the \beta. It says for each 100 sightings in
the N Hem there are about 0.62 (+-.44) *fewer* sightings in the S Hem
in the month-by-month numbers.

The sightings data is VERY noisy as with anything to do with UFO's --
most of them are mistakes and something else, after all. ;) So the R2
is very tiny at 0.05 or so. Nevertheless the stats tests say the
probability the \beta is -ve is around 99%. Even the Spearman test
shows the ordering of the data by SHem numbers is so similar to the
reverse of the NHem numbers it is unlikely to just be down to luck.

So, given the NHem and SHem sightings data appear to have a -ve
correlation we can then reason this might be because there are a
constant number of "objects" and we might try to estimate if that is
true what that number might be.

Knowing "how many" might give us a very rough idea of how many
"people" might be involved in creating these sightings. :)

It's estimated about 4500 people developed and built the 1600-odd
'747s, for example.

To estimate "how many" we take the basic model:

y = -0.00623419*x + 10.0599

where y is the number of sightings in the S Hem in a given month, x is
the number of sightings in the N Hem for that month, and imagine we
can PUSH all the S Hem sightings up to the N Hem by setting y to 0 and
solve for x:

x = 10.0599/0.00623419 = 1613.67.

Wow! A fairly smallish number and REMARKABLY similar to the number of
jumbo jets manufactured.

BUT.

There are some other wrinkles we had better take into account.

The N Hem sightings are mostly down to the USA; the S Hem sightings (I
have here) mostly from AUS. And the 2 countries are a bit different.
The populations, for one thing.

If we assume the "ufo density" per month and per km2 over the earth is
approx constant we might predict sighting numbers will increased for
countries with larger areas and/or larger populations.

If we take those factors into account the S Hem sightings numbers need
to be multiplied by around 13.5 to be comparable with the N Hem.

I.e. the total number of objects responsible for all the sightings
might be "only" 1614*13.5 = 21789.

This is still not too outlandish. The "lights in the sky" seem to
behave in many ways more like unmanned drones than 747's. It's
estimated that (human ;) countries around the world operate a total
around 1.3 mn drone aircraft.

~ ~ ~

I set some "homework" last time to estimate the density of USA UFO
sightings as they relate to the location of military bases. I posted
last time that the "total" of UFO sightings in the US seems to follow
a "square root" distribution -- density of sightings rises according
to the sqrt of the distance to nearby military bases. The square root relationship was a mild surprise but could be related to UFO's in bulk
trying to avoid possible contact with ground-to-air missiles that --
no coincidence -- have a travel time roughly proportional to the sqrt
of the distance to the target (roughly continuous acceleration after
firing).

I was wondering if anyone might be able to break down the same data
according to UFO "shape" as given in e.g. the NUFORC database.

Here are my results, along with some interpretations ;):

Type a R2
Cone 0.009 0.98167 avoiding sighting by any base
no matter how distant
Disk 0.071 0.49194
Egg 0.219 0.44703
Flash 0.275 0.42819
Rectangle 0.408 0.19790
Oval 0.465 0.45325
Unknown 0.480 0.40102
Triangle 0.497 0.38545
Fireball 0.499 0.52735
Light 0.505 0.56578 avoiding missiles
(mostly from air bases)
Changing 0.529 0.26881
Cigar 0.559 0.26097
Diamond 0.582 0.34801
Circle 0.608 0.48534
Cylinder 0.618 0.23534
Other 0.633 0.36786
Sphere 0.637 0.37910
Formation 0.694 0.34061
Teardrop 0.820 0.09685
Chevron 1.083 0.10235 avoiding intercept
Cross 1.601 0.07000 1/2 avoiding regular patrols

Each UFO type falls off depending how close to military bases (mostly
air bases) according to 1/dist^a. The R2 shows how close the observed
sighting density is to this power curve. The "cone" type of sighting
seems to 98% change with distance from military bases according to 1/dist^0.009. This is almost constant IOW "cone" sightings are not
related much to presence of military bases. Either they are
"invulnerable" or are marginally avoiding something that is "not
dependent on distance" from a military base. Maybe something that
travels at constant speed and is very, very fast. E.g. radar or simply
being seen.

Types that have an "a" around 0.5 have a density that decreases with
the sqrt dist from a military base. One threat that is proportional to sqrt(dist) is an accelerating missile.

Types that have an "a" around 1 may be avoiding a perceived threat
that has a travel time roughly proportional to distance from a military
base. E.g. interception by a military aircraft.

Types that have an "a" around 2 may be avoiding "area patrols". The
table may indicate both offensive and defensive capabilities of the
different types as well as possible intention.

Despite ostensibly high speed, maneuverability and stealth
capability, most types seem to be operating on a defensive basis.
Only the "cone types" seem to behave as if military bases are not a
threat to them.

Tetrahedrons hovering over the Pentagon may also fall into the same
class.

--
Radiation warning issued to building site thief who stole nuclear moisture gauge
ABC News, 21 Dec 2020 07:17Z
South Australian police issue a warning after a construction industry device known as an "enhanced nuclear moisture density gauge" was stolen from a building site in Adelaide's inner south.

Space Force troops now called Guardians
Mystery Wire, 18 Dec 2020 06:25 PM MST
The Trump administration celebrated the first birthday
of the US Space Force on Fri by announcing that its members will
be known as "guardians."
Vice President Mike Pence made the announcement at a celebratory event
tracing the development of the newest branch of the military over the
past year.

[Mutant!]
Cases of UK's highly contagious mutant COVID strain detected in returned travellers in Australia
ABC News, 21 Dec 2020 01:42Z
New South Wales authorities say a mutated form of the COVID-19 virus has
been detected in returned travellers, however the new strain has not
featured in the northern beaches outbreak.

Russian scientist working on COVID-19 vaccine plummets to death in St. Petersburg
Fox News, 20 Dec 2020 23:13Z
Alexander "Sasha" Kagansky, 45, was in his underwear when he fell to his
death from his 14th-floor apartment, according to the Russian newspaper Moskovsky ...

California hospitals contemplate rationing care as they get more overwhelmed Fox News, 20 Dec 2020 02:40Z
California hospitals are battling to find beds to house patients amid fears that the exploding coronavirus infection rate will exhaust resources and
health care ...

Close to 200 organizations allegedly hacked by Russia: cybersecurity firm
The Hill, 20 Dec 2020 02:18Z
Close to 200 organizations were hacked by Russia as part of the
cybersecurity attack on SolarWinds, a third party software contractor, that
has compromised ...

China is opening the world's largest radio telescope up to international scientists
Livescience.com, 19 Dec 2020 17:22Z
Following the collapse of the historic Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, China has opened the biggest radio telescope in the world up to
international ...

Giant warrior robot towers over Japanese port city of Yokohama
Yahoo News, 19 Dec 2020 14:15Z
Japan got an early Christmas present this year, and it won't fit under any tree. A giant walking, gesturing warrior robot is now on display in the port city of ...

'600 sets of eyes out there': AI surveillance keeps a watch on
fire-hit wildlife
ABC North and West SA, 19 Dec 2020 21:59Z
It is estimated almost 3 bn native animals were in the path of the
devastating bushfires that ravaged parts of Australia last summer. Now, more than 600 cameras will be installed in some of the worst-hit areas to monitor the impact and recovery.

[The One Basket Model:]
Cyber security experts worldwide scramble to defend networks after attack in US ABC News, 19 Dec 2020 06:04Z
Suspected Russian hackers who broke into US govt agencies also spied
on less high-profile organisations, including groups in Britain, a US
internet provider and a county govt in Arizona, according to web
records and security sources.

Boeing 'inappropriately coached' test pilots in 737 MAX testing, report finds ABC News, 19 Dec 2020 07:04Z
A lengthy new US congressional report finds Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration "were attempting to cover up important information that may
have contributed to the 737 MAX tragedies".

[Intel Offside!]
Intel falls on report Microsoft plans to design own chips for PCs and servers CNBC, 19 Dec 2020 01:09Z
Intel has famously had a long-running partnership with Microsoft as the
primary processor maker for Windows PCs.

[AI Takes The Stick:]
Air Force Big News
The Debrief, 16 Dec 2020
According to an Air Force press release, during a training flight
Tue night, the Air Force allowed an AI algorithm named "ARTU�" to
the control sensor and navigation systems of a U-2 "Dragon Lady" spy
plane. Officials say this marks the culmination of a three-year journey
to become a digital force and is believed to be the first known use of
AI onboard a US military aircraft.

[Even Sweden?]
Sweden bumps up COVID-19 measures, but stops short of lockdown
ABC News, 18 Dec 2020 at 11:51p
Sweden introduces its toughest measures yet in the face of soaring COVID-19 infections, including a recommendation to wear masks at peak hours on public transport.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)