XPost: alt.ufo.reports

In a prev post I looked at what the data shows about ufo sighting
distribution across the US vis a vis military bases.

It seems sighting density (e.g. per mn capita local pop) drops off in
areas with more army bases, but drops off even more in regions with
lots of AF bases.

Kinda rational behavior, you might think.

In a doc under prep for my UFO website I break that data down by UFO
type ("shape") -- something that might suggest which kind of sightings
respond most to presence of military bases and which least.

This may indicate which of the core sightings that corresp to the kind
of "aerial vehicles" seen hovering over the Pentagon or buzzing around
nr carrier groups off the Cal coast believe they are best armed or
armored and which least.

We can also presume some kinds of vehicles are more disposable that
others as far as (whatever/whomever) are concerned.

But today I want to look at data that might suggest how the UAP see us.

If UAP drop off near military bases, is the drop off linear with
distance, the square of the distance or what?

The form of the function can give us clues what UAP are likely avoiding.

If they don't want to tangle with military aircraft -- whether they can
easily out-perform or suddenly go radar invisible or not -- then the
flight time from the air base to current position should appear in the function. I.e. the sighting density should fall off around 1/r.

If the UAP are concerned about e.g. running into regular patrols then
maybe the density function will drop off as 1/r^2.

If we screw around enough with the numbers can we figure out which?
Or do we get a surprising result?

First off we have to calculate the "sighting density" for each region.
The US is by happy coincidence a gold mine to data scientists because
it's divided up into well-documented states.

So we can take e.g. the NUFORC data and chop it up into number of
sightings since 1900 per mn capita of current state population. I
also tend to adjust the numbers to account for "weekday correlations"
that seem to indicate people are WAY more likely to see something
later in the week than earlier in the week. Sat is often the favored
date for sightings and Mon the least favored. For some reason. ;)

Dropping in all these adjustments I get the following sighting density
for each state:

State Sightings 1900-2020 per mn (current) state pop
AK 828.4
AL 234.6
AR 276.7
AZ 522.8
CA 337.8
CO 461.0
CT 482.7
DE 385.6
FL 366.9
GA 204.5
HI 388.8
IA 310.3
ID 686.0
IL 283.6
IN 302.5
KS 328.9
KY 302.5
LA 199.7
MA 357.6
MD 263.2
ME 774.6
MI 331.0
MN 390.0
MO 392.6
MS 205.9
MT 861.9
NC 280.7
ND 290.2
NE 280.9
NV 436.5
NY 256.4
OH 385.3
OK 274.5
OR 699.9
PA 392.3
RI 639.0
SC 494.0
SD 447.4
TN 273.7
TX 170.7
UT 431.9
VA 288.9
VT 927.1
WA 731.9
WI 396.1
WV 430.3
WY 528.6

(Interestingly you can see density increases north and toward the
E&W coasts, particularly the Pacific, indicating perhaps the "source" of
some chunk of UFO's is the Arctic ocean. There are quite a bit of data that point in similar direction).

We can now take the distribution of military bases state by state to
produce a theoretical sighting density function based on UFO's trying
to optimize the threat they might perceive from (whatever) associated
with those bases.

I.e. we assume
sightingDensity(state) =
A
- B * sum(overStates) #airbases/dist^r
- C * sum(overStates) #armybases/dist^r

IOW the sighting density for a given state tends to be uniform over
the entire US apart from subtractions related to perceived threats
from air and army bases in all other states.

We then need to run a bunch of models varying "r" and see which is "best".

How well does the model fit and what does it say about the UAP?

Here's part of the summary output from my model runs:


"r" R2 of model ("explanation power" == proportion of variation
covered by the model)
0.549 0.56256 <-best model
0.578 0.56202
0.583 0.56179
0.584 0.56174
0.510 0.56138
0.608 0.56010
0.438 0.55405
0.430 0.55287
0.429 0.55272
0.669 0.55184
0.707 0.54372
0.374 0.54291
0.314 0.52944
...
2.900 0.15629
2.956 0.15597
2.972 0.15588
2.974 0.15587
2.982 0.15583 <-worst model


It seems the BEST model has an r approx the sqrt of the distance!
Certainly r==1 (UAP avoiding intercept from scrambled military
aircraft) and r==2 (UAP avoiding daily air patrols) are nowhere near
as good as r ~= .6.

(The relatively high R2 suggests the proportion of sightings of
random lights-in-the-sky and other flying knickknacks may be much
higher than the estimated "10% of sightings are interesting").

But what the heck does r ~= .6 indicate the UAP are avoiding?

What kind of thing maybe travels over a distance according to the sqrt
of the distance?

One possibility: a continuously accelerating missile.

We've seen some well-documented cases of UAP zipping around pulling
40g turns and supercruising at 100 ft at 1 km/s. But some missiles go
(last time I was in school) at 1.5 km/s and tend to start slow and
just keep accelerating until they hit something.

So it seems the UAP are being defensive. Despite apparent super air
performance and super stealth capability, they are mostly avoiding air
bases and apparently mostly concerned about being bothered by g2a missiles.

Again, it's probably instructive to break this calculation down by
sighting type. Do the triangles behave more defensive than the cylinders?

I'll leave that as an exercise for the energetic reader.

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