EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We use N2O as a proxy of historical UFO activity.
- Comparing atm N2O data for the past 2000 years obtained from ice
cores in Antarctica we see a variation in N2O that seems to
correspond with planetary positions, notably Uranus.
- We recall modern UFO sightings/activity also has a strong
correlation with certain planetary positions, incl Uranus.
- It may be modern UFO activity goes back a lot longer than 70y.
- N2O data now goes back 800k years and, briefly, the same kind of
patterns are also observed in that data although with less certainty
as to when it might have started.


In previous posts we've seen there seems to be a strong relationship
between UFO activity and ocean plankton. In one post I showed UFO
activity (we use the sightings database from NUFORC as a proxy of
"global UFO activity") is predicted by plankton abundance. It seems
when plankton is blooming in the N Hem UFO activity over N Am is high;
when plankton is blooming in the S Hem UFO activity over N Am is
low. Even more detailed analysis suggests the approx 6 major blooms
around polar regions are "predictive" (aka "responsible") for
shuffling UFO activity to different parts of the world at different
times. Given the complex structure of the blooms -- each polar region
sees one major bloom and 2 minor blooms each year; with the seasons in
the Arctic and Antarctic offset by several months -- it seems almost
impossible a corresponding variation in UFO sightings can not be
causally related. While some of the variation is likely related to
weather across the US -- and therefore e.g. related to who often sit
out at night looking at the sky -- that can't explain all 6 bumps in
the relevant datasets.

And given plankton are responsible for some part of the variation in atmospheric N2O we may have a way to decide whether UFO activity is a
recent thing or goes back 100s, 1000s or possible 100s of 1000s of
years. We have data from ice cores that nowadays plot N2O over the
past 800ky.

We've looked at N2O data and UFO activity before. But, briefly, we can establish that atm N2O is highly predictive of UFO sightings across N
America (and, we assume, "therefore" global UFO activity). Using the
NUFORC data and modern N2O measurements we can perform the following
timeseries regressions:

N2O dataset UFO dataset Lag Filt Transf R2
(m) (sd)
mn2o_brw mvufo2020 12 1.5 - 0.49964528
mn2o_Global mvufo2006 12 1.5 log 0.68380828

These are the models with highest R2s for the different N2O and UFO
dataseries. The 2006 series is the NUFORC dataset as monthly counts --
with variance adjustment to allow for possible methodology change
between the 1st and 2nd halves, and missing values substituted by the
relevant means -- prior to 2006 when a web reporting form was implemented.
The change saw major changes in patterns of reporting that may make it difficult to robustly combine the pre- and post-2006 parts of the
dataset. The "2020" series is the post 2006 data upto the end of 2020.

We see the 2006-2020 data is about 50% explained by atm N2O as
measured at Barrow AK. It turns out different locations where N2O are
measured differ, sometimes significantly, in their correlation with
UFO activity.

We also see the ~1940-2006 data is 68% explained by atm N2O averaged
over the whole globe (the average of available stations during each
year of the N2O data).

The best correlation was found in both cases with a 12m lag.
I.e. relating N2O data against UFO data in the same month of the NEXT
year. Why there is a lag we might speculate relates to the seasonal
nature of plankton in different parts of the world (probably most
significantly in the Antarctic) vis a vis observation mostly occurring
in North America.

So the modern link between N2O and UFO activity seems clean.

In this post we'll then look at the last 2000y via the N2O data from
the "Law Dome" in Antarctica (a reading for almost every year in the
past 2000). In a subsequent post we'll look at the N2O data from the
EPICA Dome C that goes back 800ky (unf a density of only around 1
reading per 8000 years -- a bit of a challenge to handle for this kind
of work).

While the various relationships we'll discuss below are all determined
to be highly statistically significant via 2 tests we can't claim at
this point anything has been shown to any significant degree of
certainty. All these data studies are works in progress -- something
that characterises most applied data science in industry, commerce and
science. But we can claim they are highly suggestive and point at
areas we might investigate further with other tools.

The argument will run thus: UFO activity is predicted by seasonal
plankton blooms. Plankton blooms produce additional atm N2O. Both UFO
activity and atm N2O are predicted by the movement of certain
planets. Looking at the historical N2O data from 1AD to the present (<kymhorsell.com/law2006_n2o.gif>) we can see at least 2 features.
(a) There seems to be a periodic rise and fall in atm N2O before
e.g. 1000 AD.
(b) There is a very rapid up-tick in atm N2O starting around 1800.
Climate scientists ascribe (b) to human intervention and the
Industrial Revolution and modern industrial-scale agriculture and
widespread fertilizer use.

The (a) feature is more interesting. Given even in modern times there
is an annual variation underneath the huge trend in N2O increase, we
might suspect it could indicate something about UFO activity. Is the
waveform from e.g. 1AD to e.g. 1000 AD related to "something" or is it
just a random-walk of some kind?

It turns out -- no, it is not totally random.

Wouldn't it be interesting if the positions of e.g. the outer planets
highly correlate with atm N2O from centuries back? Exactly how the
distance between the Earth and Saturn might influence how much
plankton grows in the ocean might be suspected ("farming"), but
regardless of suspects it would be interesting.

We can test each planet in turn to see how closely it's e.g. position
in its orbit or distance from Earth correlate with the atm N2O we can
see in the record.

I'll assume here a sinusoid of the relevant frequency is a good enough
proxy of planetary positions over centuries to draw conclusions from
the results. The alternative is to develop very high precision solar
system simulations that are valid over 1000s of years; something at
least this author doesn't have that much time to write/adapt and debug. :)

The periods of the relevant planets are as follows:
Jupiter 11.86y;
Saturn 29.46;
Uranus 84.01;
Neptune 164.8y.
Setting up the relevant synthetic positions, including a time-shift
adjustment to maximize the relevant matches, we find the R2's of
appropriate timeseries regressions across the 2000y N2O dataset are as
follows:

Period Shift R2
(y)
84.01 4 .9988
164.8 23 .1736
29.46 66 .0104
11.86 0 .0039

A 2nd code made slightly different calculations and found the
following results:

84.01 5 .9935
164.9 32 .9871
29.46 34 .1236
11.96 16 .0804

The 2 result sets seem to point at the position of the (synthetic)
Uranus as explaining almost all the year-to-year variation in N2O data
in the Law Dome dataset. The 2 codes get quite different results for
Neptune. One code says everything except Uranus is not a very good
explanation for the N2O data. But the 2nd code says Neptune is roughly
as good and the others are not.

But there is the additional wrinkle that the planetary periods are
known multiples of each other (Bodes Law) meaning the 2nd method may
have fallen foul of a response to a harmonic of Uranus.

The 2 methods together support Uranus as the major influence for the
past 2000y of N2O data (apart from the rapid up-tick from the IR) with
maybe Neptune a 2nd influence.

In either case, it seems one possible explanation is that "something" associated with Uranus (maybe Neptune) has been influencing the growth
of oceanic plankton on Earth for the past 2000y.

Highly suggestive that the recent announcement that "the same type of
UFO has been observed by (military observers) over the past 70 years"
may be a wild under-estimate of how long the relevant relationship has
been in operation.

In a subsequent post we'll look at similar but less comprehensive data
on atm N2O that goes back over several glacial cycles to about 800ky
BCE. And, yes, similar findings will be noted. Another post may try to
prove whether full-blown "ice ages" in the period have changed any
patterns we observe "on average" over the 800ky.

--
[NB:]
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)