EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We use a state-by-state list of number of missing people in 2019 to
determine which types of UFO activity appear to closely correlate.
- We also check some other interesting state demographics along with
the UFO activity.
- It seems some UFO types are related to increased number of missing
people; other types are robustly related to lower levels of missing
persons.
- At the same type HH firearms do not seem to reduce missing persons;
in some cases they may act as an "attractant". Perhaps those states
with a history of missing people are the ones that arm up.
- The number of Army bases in a state seems to have no effect on
missing persons related to some types of UFO activity. But other
types of UFO activity in the presence of Army bases seems to be
reduced.
- The presence of AFB have a similar spread as Army bases. Except some
types of UFO activity in the presence of AFB is seen to increase for
reasons unknown but maybe suspected. The surprise part is this is
2019 missing persons data, not 1960.


The data-scanning part of my s/w has managed to find a list of missing
people by US state. After downloading all the public FBI reports some
time back it seemed noone broke them down that way.

But someone must.

And this allows us to re-run some correlation studies to see if we can
find robust relationship between UFO activity over the US and volumes
of missing people -- even if it's only for the one year (2019).

So this won't be like most of the other studies where I want to ask
what data the s/w has on hand strongly correlates with this list of
missing person data; we want to just set up a model that involves some
of the things we've found in the past relate robustly to missing
persons and see what part UFO's play in that across the 50 states in
the dataset.

The summary information -- using the total UFO count between 2006 and
2020 per capita from NUFORC for each state -- looks like:

MODEL:
y = 1.28141*x + 22.951
beta in 1.28141 +- 0.50456 90% CI
alpha in 22.951 +- 11.7025
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999952
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.507347
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.27868947

Data:
State #UFOs pc #missing pc model-predicted missing pc TX 7.82697 45.36 32.9806
New.York 8.84026 30.6126 34.279
Louisiana 8.99218 56.9505 34.4737*
Illinois 10.4977 24.6501 36.4029
Maryland 10.8218 30.4675 36.8182
Mississippi 11.0282 38.4316 37.0826
Alabama 11.3193 41.9841 37.4557
Kansas 12.0207 27.8194 38.3544
Iowa 12.1643 27.5297 38.5384
Michigan 12.2952 56.0338 38.7062
California 12.5943 54.49 39.0895
Georgia 13.8034 24.4741 40.6388
Delaware 14.8002 61.3151 41.9161
North.Carolina 15.2348 32.5606 42.473
Ohio 15.3271 30.8264 42.5913
Massachusetts 15.601 18.5446 42.9423*
Nebraska 15.8212 32.1698 43.2244
Virginia 16.104 28.5101 43.5868
New.Jersey 16.2983 33.3779 43.8358
Kentucky 16.4968 56.044 44.0901
Indiana 16.6171 26.2853 44.2443
Pennsylvania 16.7936 31.322 44.4705
Oklahoma 16.874 64.4281 44.5735
Tennessee 17.2719 54.6945 45.0834
Florida 17.4138 61.7623 45.2652
Arkansas 17.4602 67.1546 45.3247*(1sd under) South.Dakota 17.473 26.7919 45.3411
North.Dakota 18.4958 40.9551 46.6517
Missouri 19.8893 51.9423 48.4373
West.Virginia 20.0637 65.0714 48.6608
Colorado 20.5257 53.5134 49.2528
South.Carolina 21.4454 37.5806 50.4313
Minnesota 22.406 32.6071 51.6622
Wisconsin 22.8717 25.8172 52.259*
Nevada 23.5225 66.4166 53.0929
Connecticut 25.0635 54.8611 55.0676
Utah 27.0368 35.7153 57.5962*
Washington 27.6137 89.6748 58.3354*
New.Hampshire 30.0614 26.3038 61.4719*
Rhode.Island 30.2945 18.9341 61.7706**
Oregon 31.2734 107.223 63.025**
Arizona 31.6341 134.006 63.4872**(2sd under obs) Hawaii 33.5288 74.7414 65.9151
Wyoming 34.1235 76.7778 66.6771
Vermont 35.1414 86.2562 67.9815
New.Mexico 39.3265 68.5815 73.3443
Maine 41.3743 81.2441 75.9684
Idaho 44.7149 61.0298 80.249
Montana 50.3413 68.7352 87.4588


Which (considering this is posting #3) renews the apparently robust
link between UFO activity/sightings and missing persons. Previously
links were over time -- a number of years of FBI reports -- but this
one is for one year across the various states.

We see for each UFO sighted in a state about 1 person is reported
missing (1.3+-.5).

2 stats tests were done on the data. A T-test to make sure the
relevant \beta was too +ve to be just due to chance. The s/w
calculates there's less than 1 chance in 10 it could be so large just
by luck.

And a 2nd non-parametric rank test was done and also found the order
of states by UFO sightings and by missing person numbers was far too
similar to be just luck.

Together, we have something like 1 chance in 1000 or less the link is
just due to luck.

There is 99.9% something going on.

So far this is pretty much what we found before. We recall with the
FBI data we could also check each of the missing persons categories
and find the link was robust for some types of missing person
(e.g. juveniles) but not for others (dementia cases). And we also
checked the same pattern broadly was seen in UK and AUS missing data.

But we can now push on and check which UFO types are "most strongly
linked" and maybe add a couple other things to the mix like the number
of army and AF bases in each state, and maybe the% of
households with firearms. How do all these things together affect
missing person numbers in each state?

Most of what you expect is seen. There is one surprise. Or maybe not.

I've run each UFO type NUFORC keeps track of. The types are assigned
by the curators of the data rather than witnesses. We can thank them
for that. :)

A table of the relevant regression models for JUST the coefficient of
the UFO type in each case and ordered from lowest \beta to highest
looks like:

UFO type coeff(beta) stderr T-val P-val
Egg -183.96387 63.99720 -2.87456 0.00971
Cross -87.74357 101.40186 -0.86531 0.39966 not sig Fireball -12.38200 9.32850 -1.32733 0.19801 not sig Circle 5.33948 3.12380 1.70929 0.10458
Light 6.72509 1.02260 6.57645 0.00000
Triangle 10.81420 6.37277 1.69694 0.10264
Sphere 18.78046 4.36408 4.30342 0.00026
Formation 19.13450 7.57560 2.52581 0.02009
Other 21.68958 4.89959 4.42682 0.00026
Flash 23.95456 14.70277 1.62925 0.12063 not sig Unknown 26.33085 4.76948 5.52070 0.00001
Changing 26.53809 14.07010 1.88613 0.07197
Diamond 35.24658 31.53746 1.11761 0.27480 not sig Oval 47.31150 7.03542 6.72476 0.00000
Disk 55.17567 11.43018 4.82719 0.00006
Cigar 56.78453 20.44833 2.77698 0.01163
Cylinder 72.09837 23.46344 3.07280 0.00538
Chevron 77.22041 22.82169 3.38364 0.00236
Rectangle 104.76048 24.30762 4.30978 0.00021
Cone 317.52548 57.52159 5.52011 0.00003
Teardrop 351.48764 37.86761 9.28201 0.00000

I've marked the lines where the p-val shows that coeff may be not
significantly different from 0. I'll assume anything that 10% or more
might be just down to luck of the draw can be ignored.

But of the rest, almost all UFO types seem to relate to missing persons.

As we've seen before, *some* types seem to relate to missing persons
being LOWER than they would have been otherwise. Other UFO types seem
to relate to HIGHER numbers of missing persons.

While this model can't tell whether the action of one type of UFO is *coordinated* with other types, that is one possibility. Another idea
is that different UFO types may have "different views" -- some might
try to "discourage" whatever activity other types engage in that
increase missing person numbers in some states.

We can also immediately see that some types are WAY more linked to
missing persons. E.g. Teardrop UFO's appear to be the most active
related to increased missing person numbers. For each Teardrop
sighting per capita there are 351 missing persons in a given state.

OTOH for each Egg UFO sighting -- the folklore suggests these may be
associated with people that like to land in orchards and sample fruit
but also maybe implicated in cutting off the face of the odd cow every
now and then -- there are about 183 LESS missing persons per capita in
that state.

And, finally, we can look at one of these models and check what other attributes of the state affect the missing person numbers.

I'll randomly select Cigar shaped UFOs:

REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
*****************************************
VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STAND. ERROR T - VALUE P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
gunown 1.56400 1.02311 1.52868 0.14201
ufo2020Cig 56.78453 20.44833 2.77698 0.01163
pop 16.77945 7.10022 2.36323 0.02836
army -6.56111 8.04489 -0.81556 0.42436
air -32.97066 13.83387 -2.38333 0.02719
CONSTANT 0.89398 59.28178 0.01508 0.98812
WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES = 53306.53906
DEGREES OF FREEDOM = 20
SCALE ESTIMATE = 51.62680

And here the surprises start. For each 1% of HH in a state with
firearms there is approx 1.6 more missing persons. You might imagine
if UFO's were kidnapping people then households with firearms might at
least make them think twice, slow them down. But no. Either our mental
model of what is going on is wrong or they just don't care about HH
firearms.

We see from the other coeff that for each 1 mn people in a state
there are around 17 missing people (not taking other considerations
into account).

For each Cigar UFO reported there are 57 missing people reported.

The number of Army bases in a state does not seem related to missing
persons in this context. This is not the same with all types of UFOs.

But the presence of AIR bases robustly seems related to lower missing
persons reports. For each AFB there are 33 fewer missing people
reported.

The mental model seems to come up -- Cigar type objects may be related
to missing people, but Air bases dissuade them from being as active as
they might have been otherwise.

The full list of 21 types of UFO makes interesting reading. Some
types definitely are less active with more Army bases; some types are
more active with more air bases; etc. And a lot of these patterns are
exactly the same as we've seen before using the FBI missing person
reports as well as other data that was at hand.

The case that "something is going on" builds.

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)