All the strategies above assume a UFO captain starts from some subset
of planets and has a free choice to go to any other in the solar
system. For completeness I also include the Sun (ouch ouch ouch!) as
both a source and destination. His destination choice is weighted by
how close each other planet is at the time. Closer planets are
weighted proportionally more likely to be chosen for the next trip.
Depending on the distance the trip takes a proportionate time. If the destination planet is Earth then we assume on approach to Earth the
UFO is seen, to be included int the sightings on that day. If the UFO
is *leaving* Earth for some other planet we assume it is sighted
leaving on the day the trip starts.

The strategies above then only differ by which planets are assumed to
be the possible starting points for trips. E.g "only6" means "only
Saturn". "dis1" is "everywhere except Mercury". "only76" is only
Saturn and Uranus. &ct.

So we see the stand-out best match of our "Let's Play UFO Captain" is
"Only Saturn". The set of correlations at the top of the post seem to unambiguously point at Saturn -- of course more likely one of its more interesting moons -- as the major origin of almost all UFO objects
sighted on Earth.

This is consistent with what we found using much simpler methods some
weeks back when we just looked at the correlations between sightings
and the distance of each planet. Saturn appeared at the top of that
(simple) list. So we have "simulated UFO flights" and found the same
answer so now have slightly more confidence that finding is correct.

What seems to have been ruled out is something that had seemed at one
time more likely -- UFO's originating on most planets in the solar
system. It seems the correlations we obtain for other planets --
either their distance from Earth or their apparent position in the sky
(as seen from Earth) -- are "by products" of the movement of all the
planets being coordinated by the laws of gravitation. :)

Of course this latest work is predicated on the simple assumptions
we've made are "correct", or approximately correct. If the true
situation is much more complicated then all bets are off and maybe
UFO's might originate from other planets than Saturn.

Finally, we can do the same tricks for different types of UFO's. Some
shapes or colors cause the AI used here to give up and not decide from
the observations which flying strategy is more likely. There is not
enough data (the high quality UFO sighting data I use from NUFORC
starts in early 2006) or the data we have is too noisy with mistakes
and hoaxes to choose between even the simple alternatives we have used above.

But a couple of key UFO types run through the simulate-and-match s/w fine.

E.g. the "light in the sky" UFO's are likely a grab-bag of all kinds
of things including mundane satellites, planets, and LED kites. But
also a few odd objects. But let's see whether the AI can drill down
into the data and find a planet where they might be coming from.

The list of correlations between planetary params and "lights" type
UFO sightings is:

Planet Param R2
saturn rg 0.52515325
uranus rg 0.48244359
mercury Dec 0.45859890
neptune rg 0.39373586
venus Dec 0.37491284
jupiter Dec 0.34234073
jupiter RA 0.30687365
mars rg 0.22915010
pluto rg 0.18996626

Wow. Right at the top is says the distance to Saturn is the major
correlation. Surely this *must* mean the AI will pick "Saturn only" again...

Using the simulate-and-match s/w the top strategies that match the
above list of correlations is:

Strategy R2 (likelihood of strategy producing the
correlations we see above)
only80-t 0.68358740
only8-t 0.60636297
only83-t 0.52888418
only84-t 0.51587928
only6-t 0.33140172
only87-t 0.30025828
only86-t 0.28551806

Interesting! Now it says the pattern for "Lights" suggests they are
coming from Neptune and the Sun! In 2nd place it says "Neptune only"
is a likely explanation for the observations. In 3rd place it says
"Neptune and Earth" and 4th is Neptune and Mars. It's only down in 5th
place it "takes the bait" of the large corr between distance to Saturn
and daily UFO sightings and says it might be all coming from
Saturn. But the relative chance of "only saturn" versus "only neptune"
is around a 2-to-1 difference in favor of Neptune.

Finally, we can take the complement of the "lights" and look at "Non
Light" UFO's. At least these should reasonably be expected NOT to be
confused with a long list of star-like suspects. Of course it's also
expected daytime or dark UFO's can be confused with aircraft and
drones and other mundane things. But we might expect a lower noise factor.

The list of planetary correlations for Not-a-Light UFO sightings is:

Planet Param R2 (planet param predicting daily sightings of
Non Lights)
mercury Dec 0.56434431
neptune rg 0.53736315
uranus rg 0.50838866
venus Dec 0.48216660
saturn rg 0.45602463
venus RA 0.39064275
jupiter RA 0.26042923
mars rg 0.25687112
pluto rg 0.24839742

This time Neptune comes 2nd in the list. Will the AI pick Neptune as
the source for Non Lights. Or is it "more complicated than that"?

The list of strategies that match the above correlations is found to be:

Strategy R2
only83-t 0.46722888
only86-t 0.35696505
only6-t 0.31287376
dis1-t 0.25339020

The most likely simple strategy that produces the observed pattern of correlations between planetary params and UFO sightings is "only83" --
that Non Light UFO's are coming from Earth and Neptune.

But now we have a problem. The AI picks Saturn for "all UFOs" but has
picked Neptune for Lights and Not Lights -- i.e. each 1/2 of "all
UFOs". It has not spotted (because it wasn't told about the
relationship between the UFO types) that these predictions are
somewhat logically inconsistent.

One resolution for us (apart from going back and making the s/w
understand that its solutions for "all UFOs" must jive with "Light"
and "not Light" being 2 non-overlapping subsets of the same thing) is immediately apparent. The No 2 pick for "Not Lights" is "only86" --
Neptune & Saturn.

So the overall solution might be "most UFO's appear to come from
Saturn", but "Light" UFO's mostly come from Neptune (and maybe the Sun?).
"Non Light" UFO's (mostly) come from Saturn and the rest from Neptune.

At least that's seemingly the simplest explanation for all the
correlations we have, above.

--
Upcoming events:

"Online Haters" Are Psychopaths, Recent Study Finds.
The Debrief, 6 Apr 2021
Recently published research finds that "online haters" or people who
post hateful comments on online forums and social media demonstrate
high levels of personality disorder traits associated with psychopathy.

Starlink satellites are beaming super-fast internet to Australians below,
but not everyone's happy
ABC Science, 13 Apr 2021 19:56Z
Starlink promises to give people living in the bush internet that's just as fast as in the city, but it's yet to prove itself.

Novel theory addresses centuries-old physics problem
Phys.org, 13 Apr 2021 16:47Z
The 'three-body problem,' the term coined for predicting the motion of 3 gravitating bodies in space, is essential for understanding a variety of astrophysical ...

After 48-year search, physicists discover ultra-rare 'triple glueball' particle Livescience.com, 13 Apr 2021 17:47Z
A never-before-seen particle known as the odderon has revealed itself in the hot guts of 2 particle colliders, confirming a 48-year-old theory.

100,000-year-old Neanderthal footprints show children playing in the sand Livescience.com, 13 Apr 2021 13:13Z
Fossilized footprints on a beach in Spain were made about 100000 years ago
by a family of Neanderthals, including children who jumped about as if
playing in ...

'It is growing exponentially': WHO warns COVID case and death numbers
are surging
ABC News, 13 Apr 2021 04:32Z
Global case numbers jumped by 9 per cent last week, with more than
4.4 mn cases reported -- compared with just 500,000 detected
weekly a year ago.

Roads produce 84 PER CENT of plastic dust in the atmosphere
Daily Mail, 12 Apr 2021 19:27Z
Roads and the vehicles using them are responsible for 84 per cent of microplastics found in the atmosphere, according to the results of a
new study.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)