EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We ask if UFO's are influenced by the appearance of seasonal storms
across the US. The answer seems to be "yes".
- In a form of passive radar, the location of tornadoes seems to
reveal there are at least 2 latitude bands where tornadoes seem to
prevent UFO's travelling along preferred routes. The influence of
more tornadoes on UFO sightings to the north of the tornado band vis
a vis to the south of the tornado band seems to support the idea
UFO's spend a lot of time in the atmosphere above the US, travelling
mostly from N to S.
- A future post will show there are some travel corridors inside the
continental US that seem to "de-emphasize" UFO travel from W to E.


Data analysis oftentimes requires the creative use of the tools
available rather than going out and making measurements that are
designed to determine an exact answer to some question.

Here we will present a method to track the flight routes of UFO's
without the need to create any expensive sensor networks. We'll just
use data on "natural obstacles" that UFO's may (or may not) avoid.

The NOAA has kept track of various types of storms since the 1950s -- tornadoes, wind storms and hail storms. There is a reporting network
and various protocols that sees reports from the general population
filter through a process of verification and analysis, generally
ending with investigators going into the field sometime later to
verify storm damage on the ground. Multiple reports are dis-entangled
an single "storm events" identified and recorded. Some storm types
have a definite location and track, and these are all recorded in
normally quite fine detail.

Moreover, tornadoes in particular generally have a well-defined and
measurable location and even storms that are reasonably long-lived
have a small track even compared with the size of the average US state.

Finally, tornadoes are a hazard to air travel. Aircraft are diverted
around them, generally by a good margin. We might speculate that even
unusual aircraft like UFO's might behave in the same way. If UFO's
move along more or less well-defined routes than seasonal tornadoes
may cause those routes to change from day to day during the height of
tornado season, and that kind of thing may show up in UFO sighting data.

If the location of a tornado or series of tornadoes causes sightings
in one region to increase and in some other region to decrease we
might speculate that is evidence UFO's are in the habit of travelling
from the region where sightings went up, *to* the region where
sightings went down. IOW the tornado/tornado cluster acted pretty
much like a wall.

Of course that's a lot of speculating. But this is the kind of thing
we can easily test with a little data analysis. If it pans out then we
have some (more) evidence that UFO's behave rationally, apparently
spend some part of their day travelling inside the atmosphere rather
than LEO, fell themselves to be somewhat vulnerable to wind and
supersonic 2x4s, and have somewhat habitual travel routes.

Already we have see a bit of evidence posted to these groups showing
at least some UFO's (in the N Am context) seem to travel from the N
polar region generally south, mostly along the E and W coats -- mostly
the W coast -- but do also travel inland (declining in density from
each coast toward the US heartland).

Do they also avoid tornado outbreaks and if so which ones?

I shall again use the "open source" NUFORC data -- this time aggregated
by month -- as a proxy for UFO activity. I'll use tornado data from
the NOAA (<www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports>) which I'll also aggregate
into months.

The basic idea will be to calculate the number of tornadoes in each
of several latitude bands -- about 500 km N to S running from the E to
W US coasts. UFO sightings will also be divided up into the same
bands, month by month.

The pattern we'll look for are 3 latitude bands A, B and C such that A
and C are UFO sightings and B is tornado reports such that more
tornado reports in band B appear to be associated with a decrease in
UFO reports in band A and an increase in UFO reports in band C. Or
vice versa.

IOW we are looking for a pattern where a series of tornadoes across
the latitude band B seems to "discourage" UFO travel between bands A
and C.

The s/w checks all the relevant statistics are handled properly and
the results are statistically relevant at least to the 90% confidence
level. (I.e. we know the pattern seen in the data could normally only
happen 1 time out of 10 if left to chance alone).

Then we will look across all the results found and see if there is a
simple underlying pattern that ties them mostly/all together and see
whether it is consistent with our assumptions.

The results are as follows:

A B C beta_ab beta_bc r2_ab r2_bc
20 25 40 -0.0639099 2.00629 0.05143174 0.03311065
20 40 45 -0.0120119 0.0587307 0.09354936 0.03138756
25 40 45 -0.0695122 0.0587307 0.07167597 0.03138756
30 40 45 -0.10667 0.0587307 0.04285343 0.03138756


The first 3 cols of the table are the 5-deg latitude bands. I.e. "20"
means the band 20N-25N. Beta_ab is the beta from a time-series regr of tornadoes in band B against UFO sightings in band A. Ditto for
beta_bc. The r2_xx are the relevant R2's.

We immediately see all the statistically relevant results found show
that more tornadoes (in the B band) are associated with a decline in
UFO sightings in the UFO band to the south and at the same time
associated with an increase in sightings in the UFO band to the north.

E.g. the first line shows tornadoes across the band 25N-30N seem to
boost UFO sightings in the band 40N-45N. For each tornado running in
25N-30N during a month there are 2 more additional UFO sightings in
the band 40N-45N and around .06 fewer UFO sightings in the 20N-25N band.

It's as if UFO's are forced to pile up 40N-45N to avoid travelling
into 25N-30N and are missing from 20N-25N in the same month.

The other lines of the table show the same pattern. Tornadoes in 2
different bands seem to be associated with more UFO sightings north of
that band and fewer south of that band.

This is all consistent with the idea UFO's are "mostly" traveling over
the US48 in a north-to-south direction that is disrupted by the height
of tornado season. And probably (given we also have wind- and hail-
storms in the relevant NOAA databases) other types of storms and
events as well.

So we seem to have some reason to believe UFO's seem to be "forced"
(under some circumstances) to travel at relatively low altitude and
also are not invulnerable to storms and know that.

In a subsequent post we'll repeat this process with longitude bands
and reveal a couple of UFO routes that are far from the sea. If we
build up a few of these we can run the reverse problem -- what is
special about the areas UFO's seem to "want" to travel over as opposed
to the rest of the US. Are they looking at something in particular? Or
are they just travelling along well-worn corridors and not too fussed
about changing anything that has worked for them in the past.


--
Upcoming events:
08 Apr 2012 NOAA $bn disastes Q1 release

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)