XPost: alt.ufo.reports

Further to the correlations between daily UFO sightings in N Am and
Arctic seaice.

I've upped the resolution from humongous to very large. In the latest calculations that correlate daily seaice as roughly determined from
sat radar against NUFORC daily sightings less "lights in the sky"
(LITS) the central Arctic is divided into 16 regions and a predictive
model estimating N Am UFO sightings against seaice area created. Each
model estimates an optimal lag (days) between when a change in seaice
signals a future change in UFO sightings. Typically, the lag is around
60 days but some areas are up to 1/2 or 2x this rough average.

The minutia is pretty boring for nonquants but a plot of the results
is here: <kymhorsell.com/UFO/seaiceR2.gif>.

The numbers show the R2 ("explanation power") in% for each of
the regions.

We see the largest R2 is hovering around Noaya Zemlya in the Kara
Sea. Changes in seaice around there predict 75% of daily UFO sightings
across N Am 37 days later.

The corr is -ve. I.e. less sea ice cover means more UFO sightings
across N Am about 60 days later. There's a bit of a threshold effect
in that lower and lower seaice slowly leads to more and more UFO
sightings until a certain value when the "dam bursts" and sightings
are at a seasonal maximum. Less ice after that doesn't lead to
significantly more sightings.

The much-processed data from the model looks like:

Bin label (year/day) seaice #UFOS model-est #UFOs
(non-LITS)
2020197 0.339848 12.0333 12.1817
2020324 0.0375516 11.8889 12.485
2020122 0.175877 14 12.3462*(model 1sd under)
2020144 -0.338643 11.561 12.8624*(1sd over)
2020294 -1.12214 15.1111 13.6484*(1sd under)
2020233 -0.867378 13.2069 13.3928
2020304 -0.628837 13.84 13.1535
2019205 -0.977782 13.25 13.5036
2018247 -2.03636 12.75 14.5656*(+1)
2020334 -0.475332 13.95 12.9995
2020140 -0.153754 12.6286 12.6769
2020087 0.530346 9.79592 11.9906**(+2)
2015310 2.49676 10 10.0178
2019354 0.852691 10.3125 11.6672*
2019019 1.19483 10.9697 11.3239
2020167 0.68724 13.5128 11.8332*
2019350 1.0126 11.6154 11.5068
2020062 -1.70811 14.8 14.2363
2020222 -1.42042 15.2857 13.9477*
2016294 -2.65488 15.3333 15.1861 <- model gets
max sightings
here
2013322 2.36563 11 10.1493
2019297 1.32286 11.1818 11.1955
2016120 0.440933 12 12.0803
2018364 1.42812 10.8 11.0899
2020244 -2.26147 13.8889 14.7914
2018351 1.76733 9.2 10.7496*
2017062 2.08184 11 10.4341
2019182 -4.92884 16 17.4675*
2020264 -4.09186 17 16.6278
2020274 -2.37232 16 14.9027*
2020274 -2.37232 16 14.9027*

It's hard to avoid tentatively concluding the areas with larger values
of R2 in the graphic are associated with a travel corridor between N
Russia and N Am. Just by eye you can judge a list among the 16 regions
that suggest a "most likely" route at least from Russia to Canada &
the US.


--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)