XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The AI's have been busy extracting data from UK missing persons
police reports.
- We check several random but representative regions from the ones
available to see whether there are similarities with the previous
look-see at FBI missing persons data. There are. There are also some
differences.
- Most UK regions show a strong +ve correlation between local UFO
sightings and missing persons. One of the 4 regions selected shows
a strong -ve corr; people are "re-appearing" in Manchester in
spooky statistical parallel with UK UFO sightings.
- US UFO sightings have a weak but statistically relevant corr with UK
missing persons -- but all are -ve. IOW more US sightings relate to
fewer UK missing persons; more UK sightings relate to more UK
missing persons. It seems the black triangles may be stretched and
operate on only one continent at a time!


Let's recall a prev post showing some statistical links between UFO
sightings and FBI missing person data.

It seems certain categories of missing persons have a suspiciously
similar "shape" to the month-by-month meanderings of UFO sightings.
Other groups show no statistical link with UFO sightings. The
patterns seemed consistent with the folklore that says perhaps "many"
people are abducted by persons unknown for reasons unknown but
connected with UFOs.

The AIs have been scrounging around for similar data from other
jurisdictions to compare with the patterns in the FBI data.

They have now managed to get detailed reports for 4 years that --
unlike the FBI reports previously analyzed -- break down missing
persons cases by region. The AI's are interested in having data broken
down geographically because it allows them to compare the trends
between regions with a slew of demographics they have on geographic regions.

In this case if they can establish regions with certain attributes are
more likely and others are less likely to see UFO-related missing
persons it could establish some kind of "reason" people are going
missing in patterns suspiciously similar to the wax and wain of UFO activity.

In the prelim decrypting of PDF's the AI's have selected several years
and several regions across England to establish some baselines.
Further data scrounging will aim to fill in more years with the same
kind of data to validate (i.e. replicate) these patterns. It's
standard practice to use part of the data to "estimate parameters" and
"unseen data" later to re-estimate the same parameters and see if they
are statistically identical to the first set. If so -- you have something. :)

The selection includes a couple of larger cities -- Manchester and
London -- and a couple of "rural" areas.

Interestingly, 3 of the 4 show identical patterns that further reveal
a possible pattern of UFO activity across the N Hem.

As usual the basic tools involve a time series regression of UFO
activity (at the granularity of months this time) to determine whether
the "waveform" of monthly UFO sightings is statistically similar to
the waveform of quarterly missing persons data from the selected regions.

To spice things up 2 subsets of the UFO data were selected -- the
overall monthly counts from NUFORC and those sightings just associated
with the UK. The NUFORC accepts sightings from around the world on its
web report form and they do receive a "representative sample" from
dozens of countries. While analysis shows the number of "outside N
Am" data is very small compared with specialised country databases
e.g. GEIPAN (France), and even aggregate data from Australia's
various state-based UFO groups, it does seem statistically relevant
and highly correlates with national data obtained elsewhere.

The summary table is thus:

Sightings UK region R2 Beta 95% CI
nuforcuk metro 0.95027414 129.292 21.3032
nuforcuk devon.and.cornwall 0.77594943 3.92015 1.20748
vadj northyorkshire 0.63070176 -0.0833505 0.0351008
vadj devon.and.cornwall 0.53745547 -0.196032 0.0597227 nuforcuk northyorkshire 0.43959080 3.21537 1.60521
nuforcuk manchester 0.43945404 -12.4379 7.18815
vadj manchester 0.34546658 -0.386339 0.205858
vadj metro 0.28905595 -0.394062 0.215392

The table is sorted by R2 ("explanation power").

"vadj" is the codename of monthly NUFORC sightings data. "nuforcuk"
is just the sightings that mention "UK" as either the location or
appears in the body of the UFO report.

The "best model" relates UK sightings with missing persons in metro
London. Each UK UFO sighting over the period 2009-2011 is associated
with 129+-21 missing Londoners. The month-to-month variation in UK
sightings tracks 95% of the month-to-month (the s/w converts the
quarterly reports into monthly data by just dividing by 3 -- a
conservative method that should, if anything, reduce the R2) variation
in missing persons. An incredible correlation.

of course we can't prove what the reason for the correlation is. Maybe
a Londoner hears a story about a UFO seen in the previous few days and
packs their bags and moves to Europe.

And of course there is the more direct causal connection: someone got
beamed up by a black triangle.

At the other end of the spectrum is the association between overall N
Am UFO sightings and missing Londoners. That model explains only
~29% of the missing persons data. And the \beta is -ve. Somehow more
UFO sightings in N Am are associated with fewer missing Londoners. The
AIs say this is unusual since missing person data shows distinct
seasonal trends and the UK and US have similar seasonal
patterns. We'll return to this point, below.

Of the 4 regions selected for this initial run Devon&Cornwall comes
next as a close connection. UK UFO sightings track about 77% of
missing persons in the region. The \beta is +ve. For each UK sighting
there is around 4 additional missing persons in the same month.

Again, when we look at how the region relates to total UFO sightings
(i.e. mostly from N Am) we again find a -ve beta but a good solid link
(R2). It seems now in 2 cases we have found "US" sightings are -ve
related to UK missing people; but UK sightings are +ve related.

So it sounds like something is either going on in N Am or is going on
in the UK. "Whatever" oscillates between the US and UK. At some
times the "whatever" is in the US and people are disappearing there in response. At some times the "whatever" is in the UK and people are
disappearing there.

The "whatever" sounds a bit stretched and seemingly can't operate in 2
well separated places at the same time (month/quarter).

This same pattern is roughly repeated for all 4 regions. The
"roughly" comes to a bit of a bump with Manchester where the beta is
slightly negative for the US-based sightings but VERY negative for
the UK-based sightings. It seems the "whatever" may be even more
stretched than we thought. It maybe only operates in some areas of
the UK. Or maybe people that disappear in London later turn up in the
North all seemingly associated with what UFO sightings are doing at
the time.


A later post will look to extend this initial dip into the UK data.
There are more years to look at. Many many more regions. And missing
persons, like the FBI data, are also broken down into various
categories. It will be interesting to see if like the US data
juveniles and cases where people seem to have left involuntarily
appear to be the subject of disappearances. Persons the FBI judge are
missing in relation to domestic violence or wander off because of
dementia don't.

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)