As Russia’s soldiers begin to pull back from the Ukrainian border, they >leave not just tank tracks and footprints in the mud — but a message to >Ukraine and its western supporters that Moscow remains a threat to
Europe’s south-eastern flank.
Russia’s announcement on Thursday that it would wind down its military >build-up eased fears that the Kremlin was planning for a full-scale >confrontation with Kyiv.
https://www.ft.com/content/65e2bdb6-6c1d-4033-b677-a07bb34716ae
The two nations have been mired in conflict since 2014, when Moscow-backed >separatists started a war in Ukraine’s Donbas region and Russia annexed >Crimea. Meanwhile, a peace accord signed in Minsk in 2015 has stalled over >Kyiv’s reluctance to give the separatist-controlled areas autonomy in its >constitution and Moscow’s refusal to give Ukraine back control over its >border before a handover of power in the Donbas.
But with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, pleading this month for >Nato membership and this week inviting Vladimir Putin to meet him in the >conflict zone, the signal from the Russian leader was clear: Moscow still >calls the shots in the Donbas.
Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin was a tacit acknowledgment that Ukraine >cannot renege on the Minsk deal, said Michael Kofman, a senior research >scientist at CNA, a US policy studies non-profit.
“They very much wanted to convince Zelensky that Kyiv needs to change >policy course,” he said. “They really wanted to make Kyiv sweat
and . . . to show Ukrainians exactly what they can do to them eventually — >that Ukraine will ultimately be largely on its own and that this is a
reality his administration needs to face.”
Putin’s build-up also showed the west “that from unfriendly rhetoric and >escalation there is a price. And the price is a risk of real conflict,
which nobody wants. The Kremlin’s words were heard,” said Alexander >Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The build-up may have convinced US president Joe Biden to de-escalate >tensions with Russia after Washington introduced new sanctions against
Moscow and warned of “consequences” if opposition leader Alexei Navalny, >who has been on hunger strike in a Russian jail, died in prison, Baunov
said.
As the build-up began, Biden outraged Moscow by calling Putin a “killer”. >Weeks later, the US president invited Putin to a bilateral summit — >indicating that, for all the new western sanctions against it, Moscow is >still welcome at the top table.
Reducing the pressure a day after Putin warned the west against crossing >Russia’s red lines showed that the Kremlin “understood that the level of >escalation reached was suitable, but that they need to pull back a little
to meet Biden’s proposal”, Baunov said. “Putin wants to meet Biden and to
try to charm him.”
Russia’s military drills went far beyond any operation Moscow had >previously conducted on the Ukrainian border since the signing of the
Minsk deal. In recent weeks, Moscow moved 100,000 troops to the border
with Ukraine from the east and the south, as well as tanks, aircraft,
naval forces, field hospitals and electronic warfare equipment.
Ceasefire breaches on the front line also rapidly increased, adding to the >more than 14,000 people already killed in the war.
The deployment gave Moscow enough military power to potentially conduct a >fairly substantial military operation in Ukraine while keeping its
intentions sufficiently vague to scare Zelensky, who called on Putin to
agree to restore the ceasefire.
“The Russian problem was that the Ukrainians need to change course. And >part of the reason they’re on this course is because they’re being backed >by Europeans and Americans into believing that they can just maintain this >position,” Kofman said.
Even as Russia’s troops withdraw, Moscow still has the option of
ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine in the future. Defence minister
Sergei Shoigu said Russia’s 41st combined arms army would leave its >equipment and weapons at a base near the Ukrainian border ahead of joint >military drills with Belarus this summer.
In recent months, Kyiv has sought to build up an alternative negotiating >framework known as the Crimea platform, which will hold a summit in August
to discuss reversing Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. More than 10 >mostly western countries as well as Turkey are believed to have expressed
a willingness to take part.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak, >said the border build-up had been a “strategic bluff” aimed at putting >pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. “Russia does not have the
physical capability to wage war against Ukraine,” Arestovych said.
He suggested the drills were aimed at distracting domestic attention from >Russia’s slumping economy and boosting patriotic sentiment ahead of >parliamentary elections in September.
But western powers’ reluctance to match Putin’s show of force on Ukraine’s
eastern border may make Zelensky’s search for an alternative resolution to >the conflict less tenable, Alyona Getmanchuk, director of Kyiv-based >think-tank New Europe Center, said.
“[The troop withdrawal] strengthens an argument that Putin didn’t have an >intention to invade but was using his trademark sabre-rattling tactics in >order to reach some diplomatic gains,” Getmanchuk said.
But if Ukraine’s western allies avoided the Crimea platform summit >following the Russian manoeuvring or failed to back its Nato aspirations,
she added, “Putin will find his military tactics successful and will
repeat it again and again in the future.”
### - and there ya have it folks heh, situation resolved because ukraine >isn't prepared to call russia out on their own coz they know they'll get >clobbered and prolly lose even more territory if they have a go at them...
ukraine ever joining nato now a forgotten/lost cause because the russians
can just sit there forever if needs be, and because no one wants ww3 over
a tin-pot nation like ukraine...
so then, not so much grandstanding on russia's part but that of >saber-rattling, their red lines clearly marked (and now remarked) for
anyone to see!
that although they've pulled their forces back it's not really the
russians in this instance who're 'backing-down', but the west whose
perhaps thought better of their plan to expand nato ever further via >ukraine...
but then those ruskies always 'were' masterful chess players huh...
anyway, looks like our gambit just didn't pay off and it's all back to
square one again, and wingeing/whining ukraine can just fuck off hah! :))))
cool :)
Talk about self delusion. Read the following for a master class :)
Esp. the "commentary" by master strategist, Brian Ahern.
lol
On Fri, 23 Apr 2021 14:25:19 +0100, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:
As Russia’s soldiers begin to pull back from the Ukrainian border, they
leave not just tank tracks and footprints in the mud — but a message to
Ukraine and its western supporters that Moscow remains a threat to
Europe’s south-eastern flank.
Russia’s announcement on Thursday that it would wind down its military
build-up eased fears that the Kremlin was planning for a full-scale
confrontation with Kyiv.
https://www.ft.com/content/65e2bdb6-6c1d-4033-b677-a07bb34716ae
The two nations have been mired in conflict since 2014, when
Moscow-backed
separatists started a war in Ukraine’s Donbas region and Russia annexed
Crimea. Meanwhile, a peace accord signed in Minsk in 2015 has stalled
over
Kyiv’s reluctance to give the separatist-controlled areas autonomy in
its
constitution and Moscow’s refusal to give Ukraine back control over its
border before a handover of power in the Donbas.
But with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, pleading this month
for
Nato membership and this week inviting Vladimir Putin to meet him in the
conflict zone, the signal from the Russian leader was clear: Moscow
still
calls the shots in the Donbas.
Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin was a tacit acknowledgment that Ukraine
cannot renege on the Minsk deal, said Michael Kofman, a senior research
scientist at CNA, a US policy studies non-profit.
“They very much wanted to convince Zelensky that Kyiv needs to change
policy course,” he said. “They really wanted to make Kyiv sweat
and . . . to show Ukrainians exactly what they can do to them
eventually —
that Ukraine will ultimately be largely on its own and that this is a
reality his administration needs to face.”
Putin’s build-up also showed the west “that from unfriendly rhetoric and >> escalation there is a price. And the price is a risk of real conflict,
which nobody wants. The Kremlin’s words were heard,” said Alexander
Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The build-up may have convinced US president Joe Biden to de-escalate
tensions with Russia after Washington introduced new sanctions against
Moscow and warned of “consequences” if opposition leader Alexei Navalny, >> who has been on hunger strike in a Russian jail, died in prison, Baunov
said.
As the build-up began, Biden outraged Moscow by calling Putin a
“killer”.
Weeks later, the US president invited Putin to a bilateral summit —
indicating that, for all the new western sanctions against it, Moscow is
still welcome at the top table.
Reducing the pressure a day after Putin warned the west against crossing
Russia’s red lines showed that the Kremlin “understood that the level of >> escalation reached was suitable, but that they need to pull back a
little
to meet Biden’s proposal”, Baunov said. “Putin wants to meet Biden and >> to
try to charm him.”
Russia’s military drills went far beyond any operation Moscow had
previously conducted on the Ukrainian border since the signing of the
Minsk deal. In recent weeks, Moscow moved 100,000 troops to the border
with Ukraine from the east and the south, as well as tanks, aircraft,
naval forces, field hospitals and electronic warfare equipment.
Ceasefire breaches on the front line also rapidly increased, adding to
the
more than 14,000 people already killed in the war.
The deployment gave Moscow enough military power to potentially conduct
a
fairly substantial military operation in Ukraine while keeping its
intentions sufficiently vague to scare Zelensky, who called on Putin to
agree to restore the ceasefire.
“The Russian problem was that the Ukrainians need to change course. And
part of the reason they’re on this course is because they’re being
backed
by Europeans and Americans into believing that they can just maintain
this
position,” Kofman said.
Even as Russia’s troops withdraw, Moscow still has the option of
ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine in the future. Defence minister
Sergei Shoigu said Russia’s 41st combined arms army would leave its
equipment and weapons at a base near the Ukrainian border ahead of joint
military drills with Belarus this summer.
In recent months, Kyiv has sought to build up an alternative negotiating
framework known as the Crimea platform, which will hold a summit in
August
to discuss reversing Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. More than 10
mostly western countries as well as Turkey are believed to have
expressed
a willingness to take part.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy
Yermak,
said the border build-up had been a “strategic bluff” aimed at putting >> pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. “Russia does not have the
physical capability to wage war against Ukraine,” Arestovych said.
He suggested the drills were aimed at distracting domestic attention
from
Russia’s slumping economy and boosting patriotic sentiment ahead of
parliamentary elections in September.
But western powers’ reluctance to match Putin’s show of force on
Ukraine’s
eastern border may make Zelensky’s search for an alternative resolution
to
the conflict less tenable, Alyona Getmanchuk, director of Kyiv-based
think-tank New Europe Center, said.
“[The troop withdrawal] strengthens an argument that Putin didn’t have >> an
intention to invade but was using his trademark sabre-rattling tactics
in
order to reach some diplomatic gains,” Getmanchuk said.
But if Ukraine’s western allies avoided the Crimea platform summit
following the Russian manoeuvring or failed to back its Nato
aspirations,
she added, “Putin will find his military tactics successful and will
repeat it again and again in the future.”
### - and there ya have it folks heh, situation resolved because ukraine
isn't prepared to call russia out on their own coz they know they'll get
clobbered and prolly lose even more territory if they have a go at
them...
ukraine ever joining nato now a forgotten/lost cause because the
russians
can just sit there forever if needs be, and because no one wants ww3
over
a tin-pot nation like ukraine...
so then, not so much grandstanding on russia's part but that of
saber-rattling, their red lines clearly marked (and now remarked) for
anyone to see!
that although they've pulled their forces back it's not really the
russians in this instance who're 'backing-down', but the west whose
perhaps thought better of their plan to expand nato ever further via
ukraine...
but then those ruskies always 'were' masterful chess players huh...
anyway, looks like our gambit just didn't pay off and it's all back to
square one again, and wingeing/whining ukraine can just fuck off hah!
:))))
cool :)
On Mon, 03 May 2021 11:28:52 +0100, o'Mahoney <libertidad@south.south.com> >wrote:
Talk about self delusion. Read the following for a master class :)
Esp. the "commentary" by master strategist, Brian Ahern.
lol
### - are you sure you even read that article correctly? (i didn't write
that article, i merely commented on it)
On Fri, 23 Apr 2021 14:25:19 +0100, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:
As Russia’s soldiers begin to pull back from the Ukrainian border, they >>> leave not just tank tracks and footprints in the mud — but a message to >>> Ukraine and its western supporters that Moscow remains a threat to
Europe’s south-eastern flank.
Russia’s announcement on Thursday that it would wind down its military >>> build-up eased fears that the Kremlin was planning for a full-scale
confrontation with Kyiv.
https://www.ft.com/content/65e2bdb6-6c1d-4033-b677-a07bb34716ae
The two nations have been mired in conflict since 2014, when
Moscow-backed
separatists started a war in Ukraine’s Donbas region and Russia annexed >>> Crimea. Meanwhile, a peace accord signed in Minsk in 2015 has stalled
over
Kyiv’s reluctance to give the separatist-controlled areas autonomy in
its
constitution and Moscow’s refusal to give Ukraine back control over its >>> border before a handover of power in the Donbas.
But with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, pleading this month
for
Nato membership and this week inviting Vladimir Putin to meet him in the >>> conflict zone, the signal from the Russian leader was clear: Moscow
still
calls the shots in the Donbas.
Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin was a tacit acknowledgment that Ukraine >>> cannot renege on the Minsk deal, said Michael Kofman, a senior research
scientist at CNA, a US policy studies non-profit.
“They very much wanted to convince Zelensky that Kyiv needs to change
policy course,” he said. “They really wanted to make Kyiv sweat
and . . . to show Ukrainians exactly what they can do to them
eventually —
that Ukraine will ultimately be largely on its own and that this is a
reality his administration needs to face.”
Putin’s build-up also showed the west “that from unfriendly rhetoric and
escalation there is a price. And the price is a risk of real conflict,
which nobody wants. The Kremlin’s words were heard,” said Alexander
Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The build-up may have convinced US president Joe Biden to de-escalate
tensions with Russia after Washington introduced new sanctions against
Moscow and warned of “consequences” if opposition leader Alexei Navalny,
who has been on hunger strike in a Russian jail, died in prison, Baunov
said.
As the build-up began, Biden outraged Moscow by calling Putin a
“killer”.
Weeks later, the US president invited Putin to a bilateral summit —
indicating that, for all the new western sanctions against it, Moscow is >>> still welcome at the top table.
Reducing the pressure a day after Putin warned the west against crossing >>> Russia’s red lines showed that the Kremlin “understood that the level of
escalation reached was suitable, but that they need to pull back a
little
to meet Biden’s proposal”, Baunov said. “Putin wants to meet Biden and
to
try to charm him.”
Russia’s military drills went far beyond any operation Moscow had
previously conducted on the Ukrainian border since the signing of the
Minsk deal. In recent weeks, Moscow moved 100,000 troops to the border
with Ukraine from the east and the south, as well as tanks, aircraft,
naval forces, field hospitals and electronic warfare equipment.
Ceasefire breaches on the front line also rapidly increased, adding to
the
more than 14,000 people already killed in the war.
The deployment gave Moscow enough military power to potentially conduct
a
fairly substantial military operation in Ukraine while keeping its
intentions sufficiently vague to scare Zelensky, who called on Putin to
agree to restore the ceasefire.
“The Russian problem was that the Ukrainians need to change course. And >>> part of the reason they’re on this course is because they’re being
backed
by Europeans and Americans into believing that they can just maintain
this
position,” Kofman said.
Even as Russia’s troops withdraw, Moscow still has the option of
ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine in the future. Defence minister
Sergei Shoigu said Russia’s 41st combined arms army would leave its
equipment and weapons at a base near the Ukrainian border ahead of joint >>> military drills with Belarus this summer.
In recent months, Kyiv has sought to build up an alternative negotiating >>> framework known as the Crimea platform, which will hold a summit in
August
to discuss reversing Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. More than 10 >>> mostly western countries as well as Turkey are believed to have
expressed
a willingness to take part.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy
Yermak,
said the border build-up had been a “strategic bluff” aimed at putting >>> pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. “Russia does not have the
physical capability to wage war against Ukraine,” Arestovych said.
He suggested the drills were aimed at distracting domestic attention
from
Russia’s slumping economy and boosting patriotic sentiment ahead of
parliamentary elections in September.
But western powers’ reluctance to match Putin’s show of force on
Ukraine’s
eastern border may make Zelensky’s search for an alternative resolution >>> to
the conflict less tenable, Alyona Getmanchuk, director of Kyiv-based
think-tank New Europe Center, said.
“[The troop withdrawal] strengthens an argument that Putin didn’t have >>> an
intention to invade but was using his trademark sabre-rattling tactics
in
order to reach some diplomatic gains,” Getmanchuk said.
But if Ukraine’s western allies avoided the Crimea platform summit
following the Russian manoeuvring or failed to back its Nato
aspirations,
she added, “Putin will find his military tactics successful and will
repeat it again and again in the future.”
### - and there ya have it folks heh, situation resolved because ukraine >>> isn't prepared to call russia out on their own coz they know they'll get >>> clobbered and prolly lose even more territory if they have a go at
them...
ukraine ever joining nato now a forgotten/lost cause because the
russians
can just sit there forever if needs be, and because no one wants ww3
over
a tin-pot nation like ukraine...
so then, not so much grandstanding on russia's part but that of
saber-rattling, their red lines clearly marked (and now remarked) for
anyone to see!
that although they've pulled their forces back it's not really the
russians in this instance who're 'backing-down', but the west whose
perhaps thought better of their plan to expand nato ever further via
ukraine...
but then those ruskies always 'were' masterful chess players huh...
anyway, looks like our gambit just didn't pay off and it's all back to
square one again, and wingeing/whining ukraine can just fuck off hah!
:))))
cool :)
On Mon, 03 May 2021 12:45:07 +0100, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:
On Mon, 03 May 2021 11:28:52 +0100, o'Mahoney
<libertidad@south.south.com>
wrote:
Talk about self delusion. Read the following for a master class :)
Esp. the "commentary" by master strategist, Brian Ahern.
lol
### - are you sure you even read that article correctly? (i didn't write
that article, i merely commented on it)
I took exception to your commentary, mainly this:
"but then those ruskies always 'were' masterful chess players huh...
anyway, looks like our gambit just didn't pay off and it's all back
to square one again, and wingeing/whining ukraine can just fuck off
hah!"
*Our gambit*? Really?
What exactly is your stake in this, to use such an inclusive term?
On Fri, 23 Apr 2021 14:25:19 +0100, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:
As Russia’s soldiers begin to pull back from the Ukrainian border,
they
leave not just tank tracks and footprints in the mud — but a message >>>> to
Ukraine and its western supporters that Moscow remains a threat to
Europe’s south-eastern flank.
Russia’s announcement on Thursday that it would wind down its military >>>> build-up eased fears that the Kremlin was planning for a full-scale
confrontation with Kyiv.
https://www.ft.com/content/65e2bdb6-6c1d-4033-b677-a07bb34716ae
The two nations have been mired in conflict since 2014, when
Moscow-backed
separatists started a war in Ukraine’s Donbas region and Russia
annexed
Crimea. Meanwhile, a peace accord signed in Minsk in 2015 has stalled
over
Kyiv’s reluctance to give the separatist-controlled areas autonomy in >>>> its
constitution and Moscow’s refusal to give Ukraine back control over
its
border before a handover of power in the Donbas.
But with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, pleading this month >>>> for
Nato membership and this week inviting Vladimir Putin to meet him in
the
conflict zone, the signal from the Russian leader was clear: Moscow
still
calls the shots in the Donbas.
Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin was a tacit acknowledgment that Ukraine >>>> cannot renege on the Minsk deal, said Michael Kofman, a senior
research
scientist at CNA, a US policy studies non-profit.
“They very much wanted to convince Zelensky that Kyiv needs to change >>>> policy course,” he said. “They really wanted to make Kyiv sweat
and . . . to show Ukrainians exactly what they can do to them
eventually —
that Ukraine will ultimately be largely on its own and that this is a
reality his administration needs to face.”
Putin’s build-up also showed the west “that from unfriendly rhetoric >>>> and
escalation there is a price. And the price is a risk of real conflict, >>>> which nobody wants. The Kremlin’s words were heard,” said Alexander >>>> Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The build-up may have convinced US president Joe Biden to de-escalate
tensions with Russia after Washington introduced new sanctions against >>>> Moscow and warned of “consequences” if opposition leader Alexei
Navalny,
who has been on hunger strike in a Russian jail, died in prison,
Baunov
said.
As the build-up began, Biden outraged Moscow by calling Putin a
“killer”.
Weeks later, the US president invited Putin to a bilateral summit —
indicating that, for all the new western sanctions against it, Moscow
is
still welcome at the top table.
Reducing the pressure a day after Putin warned the west against
crossing
Russia’s red lines showed that the Kremlin “understood that the level >>>> of
escalation reached was suitable, but that they need to pull back a
little
to meet Biden’s proposal”, Baunov said. “Putin wants to meet Biden and
to
try to charm him.”
Russia’s military drills went far beyond any operation Moscow had
previously conducted on the Ukrainian border since the signing of the
Minsk deal. In recent weeks, Moscow moved 100,000 troops to the border >>>> with Ukraine from the east and the south, as well as tanks, aircraft,
naval forces, field hospitals and electronic warfare equipment.
Ceasefire breaches on the front line also rapidly increased, adding to >>>> the
more than 14,000 people already killed in the war.
The deployment gave Moscow enough military power to potentially
conduct
a
fairly substantial military operation in Ukraine while keeping its
intentions sufficiently vague to scare Zelensky, who called on Putin
to
agree to restore the ceasefire.
“The Russian problem was that the Ukrainians need to change course.
And
part of the reason they’re on this course is because they’re being >>>> backed
by Europeans and Americans into believing that they can just maintain
this
position,” Kofman said.
Even as Russia’s troops withdraw, Moscow still has the option of
ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine in the future. Defence minister
Sergei Shoigu said Russia’s 41st combined arms army would leave its
equipment and weapons at a base near the Ukrainian border ahead of
joint
military drills with Belarus this summer.
In recent months, Kyiv has sought to build up an alternative
negotiating
framework known as the Crimea platform, which will hold a summit in
August
to discuss reversing Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. More than >>>> 10
mostly western countries as well as Turkey are believed to have
expressed
a willingness to take part.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy
Yermak,
said the border build-up had been a “strategic bluff” aimed at putting >>>> pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. “Russia does not have the
physical capability to wage war against Ukraine,” Arestovych said.
He suggested the drills were aimed at distracting domestic attention
from
Russia’s slumping economy and boosting patriotic sentiment ahead of
parliamentary elections in September.
But western powers’ reluctance to match Putin’s show of force on
Ukraine’s
eastern border may make Zelensky’s search for an alternative
resolution
to
the conflict less tenable, Alyona Getmanchuk, director of Kyiv-based
think-tank New Europe Center, said.
“[The troop withdrawal] strengthens an argument that Putin didn’t have >>>> an
intention to invade but was using his trademark sabre-rattling tactics >>>> in
order to reach some diplomatic gains,” Getmanchuk said.
But if Ukraine’s western allies avoided the Crimea platform summit
following the Russian manoeuvring or failed to back its Nato
aspirations,
she added, “Putin will find his military tactics successful and will >>>> repeat it again and again in the future.”
### - and there ya have it folks heh, situation resolved because
ukraine
isn't prepared to call russia out on their own coz they know they'll
get
clobbered and prolly lose even more territory if they have a go at
them...
ukraine ever joining nato now a forgotten/lost cause because the
russians
can just sit there forever if needs be, and because no one wants ww3
over
a tin-pot nation like ukraine...
so then, not so much grandstanding on russia's part but that of
saber-rattling, their red lines clearly marked (and now remarked) for
anyone to see!
that although they've pulled their forces back it's not really the
russians in this instance who're 'backing-down', but the west whose
perhaps thought better of their plan to expand nato ever further via
ukraine...
but then those ruskies always 'were' masterful chess players huh...
anyway, looks like our gambit just didn't pay off and it's all back to >>>> square one again, and wingeing/whining ukraine can just fuck off hah!
:))))
cool :)
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