From:
slider@anashram.com
As Spain, France and Germany start to struggle with rising Covid-19 cases, alarm bells are ringing again in the UK. Over the weekend, 3,000 new
people tested positive for Covid-19 in a 24-hour period, and dozens of
schools in England and Wales have reported outbreaks. While the number of hospitalisations is still low, the trajectory of the US, France and Spain suggest that hospitalisations tend to follow increased case numbers by
several weeks. It’s impossible to have a high number of infections and community transmission and not have vulnerable or elderly individuals hospitalised. They live with and among all of us.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/08/coronavirus-cases-rising-uk-second-wave
It’s worth remembering that case numbers now aren’t comparable to those in March. Before, tests were only done on people who had been admitted to hospital. Now, symptomatic people are being tested outside of hospitals
and in the community, along with their contacts. This means that we’re picking up infections and positive cases that we weren’t previously
testing for.
Nonetheless, after enduring the considerable pain of a prolonged lockdown, nobody wants to see the UK going backwards on the progress it has made. As numbers rise, ministers face difficult decisions about how to get on top
of this situation and ensure schools remain open. If the government
doesn’t do anything and lets the virus spread, hospitalisations will increase, deaths will follow and ministers will be blamed for not doing
enough to suppress the virus.
The economy will continue to take a hit and schools will probably have to
move back to blended or fully online learning. This kind of situation is already playing out in Brazil, as well as some states in the US. A survey
of parents across the US by the New York Times revealed that only one in
seven children are attending school in person. Even Sweden closed upper secondary schools and universities on March 17 as its case numbers
increased.
But if the government moves early to limit the spread of the virus and
lower the number of cases, ministers will then be blamed for overreacting
and unnecessarily hurting the economy. This is a classic paradox in public health: prevent illness from occurring and then get blamed afterwards for enacting the measures that saved lives. Public health is about preventing illness, while medicine is about treating it. This also explains why governments often delay acting until public opinion has shifted or until
health services are already strained.
Several steps are necessary to manage the current situation. The
government should commit to what’s often referred to as maximum
suppression (“zero Covid” or “elimination strategy”), aiming to stop community transmission and keep the number of cases as low as possible. To support this, we all need clear, daily messaging from the UK government on
the number of daily cases and tests (both the number of people testing
positive and the number of people tested), and on how many cases are
arising from hotspots, such as factory outbreaks. We need transparency on
the underlying data, and blunt honesty from our leaders about the
difficult position we’re in. Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has not taken a holiday this summer, and continues to host a daily
coronavirus briefing. She consistently provides much of this information
to the public and explains the reasoning behind different measures.
Some have suggested that letting young people become infected might help
boost immunity in the population. But young people can also become
seriously ill (particularly those with underlying conditions, which they
might not even know about) and can pass on the virus to elderly and
vulnerable individuals they come into contact with. We have a collective responsibility to watch out for these members of our community and make
them feel valued and supported by following the guidance and changing our behaviour to avoid risky situations.
Once cases arise, the testing and tracing system needs to be ready to put
out fires. Testing needs to be accessible and available to individuals
with results returned within 24 hours in order to be useful for tracing contacts. The system in England is not up to scratch. People are having to travel hundreds of miles in order to receive a test. Scotland struggled
with increased demand for tests from children and young people in the
first two weeks after schools reopened. Demand for tests will only
increase in the coming weeks as people catch other winter viruses that
cause similar symptoms to Covid and schools and offices reopen.
“Super-spreading events” such as large house parties, religious gatherings and nightclubs can result in dozens of people becoming infected quickly.
When these occur, the testing and tracing system can become strained as
chains of infection move faster than tracers can identify contacts. At
this point, local restrictions limiting visits to certain indoor places – whether these be clubs, pubs or indoor house visits – for a length of time might be necessary to give time for the NHS testing and tracing teams to
do their work. These local restrictions should be introduced in a proportionate, and data-driven way and sectors that suffer as a result
should receive targeted economic packages.
It seems unlikely that the UK will have another national lockdown if these mechanisms are in place. For those feeling hopeless in the face of this pandemic, science is giving us reason for cautious optimism on a weekly
basis. We already have three treatments that mean survival from Covid-19
is improving. Several promising vaccines are in phase 3 trials and mass,
rapid, saliva-based tests are already being used in universities in the
United States.
Mass testing, or a vaccine, will eventually get us back to a more “normal” version of daily life, but these require time to deliver. And right now,
as much as we would like to forget it, we are in the midst of a major
global pandemic. No country in the world looks the same now as it did pre-coronavirus. Each government is making hard choices, and their
populations are having to live with their consequences.
### - looks like we're not gonna be getting-away with just a first-wave
alone of this virus crap then huh, that, just as all the kids were finally returning to school after nearly 6 months off and people slowly all
retuning to work, there's clear signs now of a second wave occurring
albeit this time it appears to be affecting a completely different age group/range? presumably because all the susceptible older generations
died-off and/or survived in the first wave...
the first wave affecting mainly the older generation(s) having apparently
now moved to affect a far younger range/group at the other end of the
scale in the 16 to 30 age range, the problem being that of the uk (and
other nations) not be able to afford another complete lockdown as before,
are thus applying a different approach that in some ways might even be
worse!
e.g., mass testing in order to identify those infected + 'covid-marshals' actively wandering around identifying any law-breakers and imposing huge
fines on anyone gathering in groups of larger than 6 in public places,
while those identified as being either infected and/or at risk of being infected having to remain at home, thus allowing some semblance of society
to continue functioning...
hopes in a quick vaccine solution being somewhat dashed/delayed due to
some reported 'adverse' aspects on those trialling it, and coz who knows
what effect some deliberately genetically altered strains may have on
people? something which could even inadvertently create an even worse
strain as that virus rebounds!
that basically then, it looks like it's not gonna be over soon at all and indeed may even be with us for decades to come, especially if any of the reports of 're-infections' with 'different' strains are correct?? a 'new normal' for society perhaps even becoming established!
our best hopes here, imho, then being that of 'everyone' eventually being exposed to it across all the age-ranges being removed from the equation,
either by dying from it or surviving and thus developing some immunity to
it that results in far lighter symptoms, but exposed to it everyone will perforce have to be at some point!
they've done their best to slow the process down only that wont stop it
from reaching everyone eventually! 'herd-immunity' ultimately being the
only real solution when more than 60% of the entire population has been
exposed to it?
accordingly then, the world is changing folks! and indeed may never go
back to the way things were!
new zealand potentially setting the precedent whereby all international
travel is completely closed down until no one at home has it, as being the 'only' way to stop reinfection reaching them again from outside?
and which could well eventually be the same for the rest of us too!
something which would definitely alter the world and the way it functions if/when international travel ceases altogether! whole countries possibly
even going bankrupt unless able to demonstrate some kinda complete self-sufficiency!
the concern being that of yet another new virus subsequently coming along
on top of this one, something that would then likely finish us all off altogether? that with dozens of species becoming extinct every year, whose
to say we wont eventually be one of them!
mother nature currently has us by the balls, will she let go or squeeze
even harder?
who knows!
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)