From:
slider@atashram.com
The Government’s method of giving out numbers on Covid-19 deaths and
testing is “not the trustworthy communication of statistics”, according to an expert.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter condemned ministers for using daily coronavirus figures as "number theatre" rather than providing "genuine information" to the public.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/david-spiegelhalter-covid19-statistics-coronavirus-government-a4436471.html
Sir David, who is chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, also said it is “extraordinary” that it is not known how many people have truly had Covid-19. He said "what's happened in this country" in terms of case
numbers and death toll "is not inevitable."
Asked about the Government’s communication to the public about coronavirus through its daily televised briefings, Sir David told the BBC's Andrew
Marr Show that he had watched Saturday’s and that he “frankly, found it completely embarrassing”.
“We get told lots of big numbers, precise numbers of tests being done – 96,878. Well, that’s not how many were done yesterday; it includes tests
that were posted out," he said.
“We’re told 31,587 people have died; no, they haven’t, it’s far more than
that.
“I think this is actually not the trustworthy communication of statistics."
Sir David said he wished data was being presented by people who know its “strengths and limitations” and could “treat the audience with respect”.
“It’s such a missed opportunity. The public out there who are broadly very supportive of the measures, they’re hungry for details, for facts, for genuine information, and yet they get fed this what I call ‘number theatre’, which seems to be co-ordinated really much more by a Number 10 communications team rather than genuinely trying to inform people about what’s going on."
The eminent statistician also claimed his views on the "uselessness of international comparisons" had been previously misrepresented, and sought
to clarify his stance.
He sent a tweet earlier this week asking ministers not to cite an article
he had written on international Covid-19 comparisons.
The article has been used by some, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson,
to support arguments against making any comparisons between the UK and
other nations in terms of statistics such a Covid-19-related deaths.
Sir David said his article was not suggesting that no comparisons should
be made, but warning against those that rank countries, such as those with higher numbers of deaths.
He said: "I just wanted to say that because of the enormously different
ways countries are reporting their data, it's an enormously vacuous
exercise to do a sort of Eurovision between whose the worst in Europe.
"I should have made much clearer that what I was talking about is the comparisons between the bad countries in Europe - the UK, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy.
"I was not saying we can't make any comparisons at all, because clearly,
it's important to note that we as a group is way above, in terms of
mortality, a group like Germany, Austria, Portugal, Denmark, Norway, who
have low fatality rates.
"If only to say, that what's happened in this country is not inevitable,
it doesn't mean it had to happen."
Sir David also raised concerns about a lack of information on how many
people have had the virus.
He added that some say the infection fatality rate - the proportion of
people infected with the virus who go on to die – is around 1 per cent.
Putting the number of deaths at around 35,000 deaths, if this is
multiplied up, it would mean that around 3.5 million people have been
infected.
But others put the infection fatality rate at a different percentage, with
some saying the infection fatality rate is half of one per cent, which
would mean that seven million have been infected, while others claim half
the country has been infected, he said.
Asked by Marr how scared we should be of Covid-19, Sir David said it is
“very important that we are aware of what the risks are”.
“I’m not saying how anybody should feel, or what they should be worried about, but my aim, as a statistician, was that people’s anxiety should be
at least roughly proportional to the actual risks that they face,” he said.
As an example, Sir David said there are 10 million children under the age
of 15 in England and Wales, and, up to April 24, there had been two deaths
in this age group.
“This is the tiniest risk you could ever think of, so I do think that when people start talking about protecting our children, this is a bit of a delusion,” he said.
“Obviously, I’m talking about risks to the individual themselves, we have to think about the potential for spreading the virus, and that’s
absolutely vital.
“But when we talk about personal risk, for young people, it’s staggeringly low.”
Among the 17 million under-25s, there have been 26 deaths recorded, Sir
David said, adding: “That’s about the risk we face over a couple of days
of general accidents and sudden death.”
In comparison, more than 1 per cent of those aged over 90 have so far died
from Covid-19, in a four-week period, he said.
“That is 10,000 times the risk of the younger people.”
### - hey it's about bloody time someone spotted this bs too? just the way
they 'announce' their daily numbers being completely misleading &
confusing all along?? lol i even had to stop mentioning it in case i was starting to sound like some kinda conspiracy nut hah! :D
the end result anyway of all their fucking with + massaging of the data
is, that no one actually knows the real figures of how many have died,
when they died, or even where they fuckin' died! their data STILL doesn't
make any sense lol (they're playin' it all down of course heh, they're
very careful, for example, not to 'over-estimate' the numbers huh... riiiiiight...)
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)