From: intraphase@gmail.com

A thread for well written covid-19 articles

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March 4, 2020 3:05PM
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
By Alan Reynolds https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

[]


“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street Journal headline in print before it was toned down online. COVID-19 deaths at a nursing
home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virus spreading “across the U.S.�
� The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close
together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.

The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing home and Evergreen hospital represents high‐​risk concentrations of vulnerable seniors. Among those who died in Washington, all but two were in their 70s or 80s (the other
two in their 50s) and most had “underlying health conditions.” Evergreen hospital has two more in critical condition, in their 70s and 90s, both with underlying conditions.

What we just learned from Washington was already known from China’s experience A February 24 article by Katarina Zimmer in The Scientist provides an excellent summary:

“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre‐​existing illnesses and the elderly.While less than 1
percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory
disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in
China] proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older
were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”

The Scientist article point about the death rate being “less than 1 percent” among the healthy and also the point about the 2.3% Chinese estimate
being a “an overestimate” because “many mild cases might go undiagnosed” underscore similar
points I made in a March 2 blog. My concern is that misinformation about COVID-19 has fueled excessive fear of the virus by greatly exaggerating the actual death rate per hundred people infected (the infection fatality rate).

I suggested that if we took unreported mild cases into account, the actual death rate among infected people outside China may be as low as 0.5%. Skeptics greeted death rates of 0.5–1.0% as Panglossian heresy. Yet the rigorous February 10 study I cited,
from Imperial College London, concluded the global infection fatality ratio was
about 1.0. My estimate is lower than 1.0 because I exclude China where (I argue) high fatality rates in Wuhan were exaggerated by overcounting institutionalized elderly with
serious infection.

On February 29, Denise Grady, The New York Times’ veteran health and medicine
reporter, independently came to conclusions not unlike those Katarina Zimmer and I did within a few days of each other – namely than fewer than 1% of people infected with
COVID-19 are likely to die from it, and that the odds of death are lower that that for healthy non‐​elderly people. Ms. Grady explained these facts in The New York Times as follows [with emphasis added]:

“Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower
rate: 1.4 percent. The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most
experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom‐​free cases that have not been detected. The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal
flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr.
Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention.”

Despite two health science writers and one economist trying to warn people that
widely hyped mortality rates greatly exaggerate the risk (not to mention Drs. Fauci, Lane and Redfield) exaggerated estimates continue to grab the headlines.

On March 4, The New York Times reported, “Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the
organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that… ‘Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid‐​19 cases have died.” “By comparison,�
� he added, ” seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

To the newspaper’s credit, The New York Times apparently felt obliged to caution readers that the WHO’s 3.4 percent death rate is quite implausible, if not wildly inaccurate: “The figure does not include mild cases that do not
require medical
attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower. Still, it was the first time that the
organization had offered a global mortality rate for the disease.”

Ironically, my previous blog quoted Dr. Tedros Adhanom saying, “Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.”

Because most cases are mild, as he said, and because mild cases are excluded by
definition from “reported cases,” the WHO’s alleged 3.4% mortality rate is nothing more than sensationalist nonsense.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Worldwide Strategy

[]

Using Containment Tents Outside Hospitals

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-san-jose-good-samaritan-hospital-surge-tents-influx-cases-covid19/

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

South Korea - Strategy
Aggressive Testing Diagnostics - Lowers Mortality To 1%. https://sports.yahoo.com/south-korea-tests-hundreds-thousands-210000450.html

[]

Virus Testing Blitz Appears to Keep Korea Death Rate Low
Heejin Kim, Sohee Kim and Claire Che
Bloomberg
Mar 5, 2020, 1:18 AM



(Bloomberg) -- Highly contagious and manifesting in some with little or no symptoms, the coronavirus has the world struggling to keep up. But when it comes to containing the epidemic, one country may be cracking the code -- by doubling down on testing.

South Korea is experiencing the largest virus epidemic outside of China, where the pneumonia-causing pathogen first took root late last year. But unlike China, which locked down a province of more than 60 million people to try and stop the illness
spreading, Korea hasn’t put any curbs on internal movement in place, instead testing hundreds of thousands of people everywhere from clinics to drive-through stations.

It appears to be paying off in a lower-than-average mortality rate. The outbreak is also showing signs of being largely contained in Daegu, the city about 150 miles south of Seoul where most of the country’s more than 5,700 infections have emerged.
South Korea reported the rate of new cases dropped three days in a row.

It’s an approach born out of bitter experience.

An outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015 killed 38 people in South Korea, with a lack of kits to test for the MERS pathogen meaning infected
patients went from hospital to hospital seeking help, spreading the virus widely. Afterward, the
country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

When the novel coronavirus emerged, that system allowed regulators to collaborate quickly with local biotech companies and researchers to develop testing kits based on a genetic sequence of the virus released by China in mid-January. Firms were then
granted accreditation to make and sell the kits within weeks --a process that usually takes a year.

In a short space of time, South Korea has managed to test more than 140,000 people for the novel coronavirus, using kits with sensitivity rates of over 95%, according to the director of the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine.

That’s in stark contrast to countries like its neighbor Japan and the U.S., where the issues China experienced early on -- with unreliable and inadequate testing resulting in thousands of infected patients not being quarantined until
it was too late --
are now threatening to play out.

Read more: Limited Virus Testing in Japan Masks True Scale of Infection

Testing widely has meant South Korea knows where its infections are centered, and so far they’ve been able to keep them largely contained with outbreaks beyond Daegu in the minority. In the capital Seoul, home to 10 million people, there have only been
103 infections.

President Moon Jae-in has cast the virus fight as a battle, saying the country is “at war,” with a pathogen that’s killed 3,200 people globally and sickened more than 94,000. With parliamentary elections due in April, his government is under
pressure to curb the outbreak and has faced criticism for not closing the border fully to travelers from China. Moon’s administration is seizing on the
country’s testing apparatus as a solution.

The emphasis on diagnosis is also being credited with helping patients get treatment early, bringing the mortality rate from the virus to under 1% -- below every other affected country save Singapore, where the outbreak is on a much smaller scale.

How One Patient Turned Korea’s Virus Outbreak Into an Epidemic

“The coronavirus is highly contagious and even those without symptoms can transmit the virus, which makes it hard to stop infection among communities,”
said Lee Hyukmin, director at the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine and a professor at Yonsei
Severance Hospital. “Without enough testing capabilities, the death rate will
be high as the delay worsens the damage in the lungs.”

By late February, when South Korea’s outbreak began to accelerate, four local
companies had approval to sell kits to test for the virus. The country is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day. In neighboring Japan, only 2,684 people in total
have been tested as of March 3.

The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer. Officials in Seoul have started operating “drive-through” testing stations in three districts where people can get tested without
leaving their cars.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From: intraphase@gmail.com

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate of 3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have been the perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate
of 3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have
been the perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became
infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

### - that's the problem with stats innit though huh, it all depends on
how they're collected & manipulated etc...

for example: as of today there's now been a total of 225 confirmed cases throughout the US, 14 of which have died?

thus 14 x 100 / 225 = 6.222 fatality rate! (yak)

italy's figures on that basis suggests it's as high as 4.2!

the global tally suggesting something else again completely different (far lower)

so who knows where it's actually at? (or are we being deliberately misled again?)

my own, unorthodox figures, suggests a fatality rate of around 3.2% plus
or minus .5

but i guess we wont really know until after the fat lady has sung?

my money's on it being somewhere between 2 & 3% and so only slightly worse
than the spanish flu which killed 50 million, problem being there being
there was only a 2 billion total population back then and 4 times that
many now... so 200 million deaths world wide isn't a total impossibility...

otoh, it may just fizzle-out completely like the dreaded swine flu
pandemic did?

here's hopin' anyway...

at least until the next one comes along lol :)

(imho they can fuck off with all their 'threats' hah!)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

'This is war': Doctor leading search for coronavirus vaccine says it's the
most frightening disease he's ever encountered

A doctor spearheading the search for a coronavirus vaccine today said it
is the most frightening thing he has ever encountered and far more deadly
than flu - as he revealed fighting it will be like a war.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8082855/PM-pledges-extra-46m-coronavirus-vaccine-research.html

Dr Richard Hatchett, who heads up the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said governments need to adopt an 'aggressive' response to
tackle the virus as he revealed it could take between 12-18 months to
develop a vaccine and cost £1.5bn ($2bn).

It comes as Boris Johnson urged Britons to brace for 'substantial
disruption' that could last months as he pumped £46million into a
coronavirus vaccine and testing kits as a second Briton is confirmed dead.

In total, 164 people have tested positive for Covid-19, up from 115 cases reported at the same time on Thursday as Norther Ireland confirmed its
fourth case this evening.

Two people have died from the virus on British soil so far with the most recent, a grandfather in his early 80s, revealed to have died at Milton
Keynes Hospital after he was admitted on March 3 with suspected pneumonia.
He had recently returned from a cruise where he had visited several
countries.

On Thursday evening another patient, reported to be a woman in her 70s,
became the first person in the UK to die after being diagnosed with
Covid-19 while at the Royal Berkshire Hospital in Reading.

Dr Hatchett said that what we are seeing is a virus that is 'many many
times more lethal than flu' and a population that is 'completely
vulnerable to it' as he fears it might explode further across the globe
and the UK.

He cited a quote from a World Health Organisation official who returned
from China and described the situation as 'like a war'.

Dr Hatchett said: 'I don’t think it is a crazy analogy to compare this to World War II. The World Health Organisation is using those kinds of terms.
They have seen what this virus is capable of doing.'

Speaking to Channel 4 News, he said: 'I've been working on epidemic preparedness for about 20 years and completely dispassionately without elevating the temperature or speaking hyperbolically.

'This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career,
and that includes Ebola, it includes MERS and it includes SARS.

'I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death.'

Dr Hatchett leads the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations — a partnership of governments, industry and charities, created three years
ago to fight emerging diseases that threaten global health — is already sponsoring four Covid-19 vaccine projects .

He praised the Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty and says he
and his colleagues are doing a good job in the circumstances. But what
concerns him the most is the infectiousness of COVID 19 combined with its mortality rate.

He added: 'We have seen very lethal viruses, we have seen certainly Ebola
or Nipah or any of the other diseases that CEPI, the organisation that I
run, works on.

'These viruses have high mortality rates, I mean, Ebola's mortality rate
in some places is greater than 80%. But they don't have the infectiousness
that this virus has. They don't have the potential to explode and spread globally.'

He said we had not seen a virus like it since the 1918 Spanish flu which
is estimated to have killed between 50 million and 100 million people.

Dr Hatchett said coronavirus has the 'potential to cause a global pandemic
if we're not already there'.

He added: I do think the virus has demonstrated that it has a lethality
that is likely many fold higher than normal flu.'

Looking at how it has spread across the world, he said: 'Singapore and
Hong Kong did not shut themselves down but they have mounted very
aggressive responses. Contact tracing is very important. The voluntary quarantine of contacts is very important. The isolation of cases is
important. I think there may be a time to close schools.'

His comments come as a funding boost - which is coming from the UK's international development aid budget - brings the British Government's commitment up to a total of £91million.

However, Mr Johnson warned that even with the extra resources a vaccine
will not be ready for another year.

Number 10's top scientist today admitted the killer virus is spreading in
the UK – the World Health Organization says it has been for several days.

Meanwhile, the government has been stepping up its response amid fears it
is now only a matter of how long before a mass outbreak in this country.

Families are being urged to consider how they will cope if they need to go
into quarantine at home, or keep vulnerable friends and relatives away
from the danger of infection.

### - looks like it's just about ready now to explode here in london, with
29 infected locally (currently the highest cluster anywhere in the
country) out of a total of 164 confirmed cases nationwide + 2 deaths, both victims aged over 70 with existing serious medical conditions...

the way this thing spreads another 2 or 3 weeks being likely to see those figures rising steeply in london into the high 100's, if not thousands,
that is if the typical rate of spread elsewhere is anything to go by...

storm's a-brewin' here folks, it's all set, so if'n i disappear suddenly
for more than a week you'll prolly be able to guess the reason huh...

anyway, the show's just about to start here - so wish me luck...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv8GW1GaoIc

yee-harr you mofo! yee-harrr! :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

killer on the road.

stay positive and keep intending
what you want, don't put your
attention on what you DON'T want.
this includes corona fucking virus.

### - ahahaha accepted... but then i 'intend' to spit right in its eye?

so c'mere ya little virus fucker you and let me teach 'you' some lessons!
olay! olay! toro!

(slider later seen off-stage punchin' its fuckin' little head in lol...)

don't be scared maan, it's always a good day to die ;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

killer on the road.

stay positive and keep intending
what you want, don't put your
attention on what you DON'T want.
this includes corona fucking virus.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A good chart by country Switzerland .5 to China 5.9 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-2020-3


The under reporting skews the data.
I am sticking with .065 from the Diamond Princess ship results.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Important point here is Taiwan limiting itself to 45 cases.
This article slightly skews to overly reassuring. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/in-hong-kong-people-heading-outside-as-warmer-weather-and-fears-of-coronavirus-decline-taiwan-and-us-saved-by-early-decisive-actions/


[] Title

In Hong Kong People Heading Outside as Warmer Weather and Fears of Coronavirus Decline – Taiwan and US Saved by Early Decisive Actions
Joe Hoft by Joe Hoft March 8, 2020 70 Comments

[] Body of Article

The warmer weather has many in Hong Kong out and about this weekend with little
to no worries of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, Taiwan and the US are benefiting from travel policies instituted at the beginning of reports of the virus.

People in Hong Kong were out and about Hong Kong over the weekend as fears of the coronavirus wane:

People in Hong Kong are coming out everywhere. After 2 months of fear and caution data shows more people in HK died from flu than caught coronavirus. Companies getting back to work. #coronavirushoax pic.twitter.com/nO7qYcFq7y

— Joe Hoft (@joehoft) March 8, 2020

The number of cases of the coronavirus have finally matched the number of deaths from the flu during the flu season in Hong Kong which ended in mid-February. As of this morning, there are 113 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Hong Kong with 2 deaths.

We reported a week ago that since the beginning of the year, the flu in Hong Kong has been much more consequential than the coronavirus:

The Centre for Health Protection announced today [February 13, 2020] that the winter flu season has ended. During this period, 113 adults died of influenza and no deaths from children were recorded. The Centre reminds the public that although the
winter flu peak period has ended, citizens should continue to maintain personal
and environmental hygiene to prevent respiratory diseases.

As the reality of the coronavirus unravel, more people in Hong Kong are out enjoying the warmer temperatures with less fear of being infected with the virus. Companies are going back to work with more and more employers working towards full workforce in
the coming days.

Taiwan is benefiting from actions by mainland China in its actions to confront the coronavirus. Taiwan News reports:

In China, official data claims over 80,000 cases with more than 3,000 deaths so far, although the real figure is likely to be many times that. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been backing China and claims that it has the virus under control.

However, the cancellation of events like the Chinese Grand Prix and the Asia Rugby Sevens Series tournament, as well as the decision of countries like Japan and Taiwan to cancel visas and refuse visitors from China, suggests these
claims are not
believed.

In the middle of this sits Taiwan, a country with close economic and social
links to China, Japan, and South Korea. Yet in Taiwan, there are currently just
45 confirmed cases.

Think about what a remarkable achievement that is for a moment. Taiwan currently has fewer cases of Wuhan virus than countries like Switzerland, Belgium, Kuwait, and Norway.


Taiwan News continues:

The steps taken by the Taiwanese authorities to handle the outbreak are not
actually that radical. First, they ignored official denials by the Chinese Communist regime and its WHO puppets and began checking passengers from Wuhan for symptoms as far
back as December.

They also cut off flights from China far earlier than other Asian countries
and the rest of the world. This allowed it to keep a much closer eye on Chinese
visitors to Taiwan and contain any cases that did arrive.

The US is similar to Taiwan. In spite of having a population of roughly 350 million, the US only has 436 cases confirmed to date. China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain and Japan all have more cases than the US.
The US benefits from
President Trump’s quick action to halt flights from China long before other nations.

In spite of the President’s quick actions the far left MSM like Politico bashed him for acting so quickly and said he only did it because he is racist:

"The Trump admin's quarantine and travel ban in response to the Wuhan coronavirus could UNDERCUT international efforts to fight the outbreak by antagonizing Chinese leaders, as well as stigmatizing people of Asian descent, according to public health
experts and lawmakers."

— Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) March 8, 2020

Today, the same organizations say the President isn’t doing enough.

As time goes by these far left liberal talking points will see that their reports and characterizations of the entire coronavirus situation will be radical overstatements. As more numbers come available, the impact of the virus will be observable with
data and it will not reach the manic predictions of today’s media.
President Trump was right. As warmer weather and more data comes available, the US will make it through this overstated crisis fine and the markets will soon rebound nicely.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:01:00 PM UTC-5, slider wrote:

killer on the road.

stay positive and keep intending
what you want, don't put your
attention on what you DON'T want.
this includes corona fucking virus.

### - ahahaha accepted... but then i 'intend' to spit right in its eye?

so c'mere ya little virus fucker you and let me teach 'you' some lessons! olay! olay! toro!

(slider later seen off-stage punchin' its fuckin' little head in lol...)

don't be scared maan, it's always a good day to die ;)

Some good bits here
https://youtu.be/gcVMg2ynWYw

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Mayor of New York

At 2:20 the specifics of transmission are described.

https://youtu.be/_3Mn-mJdHUo

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

The under reporting skews the data.
I am sticking with .065 from the Diamond Princess ship results.

### - just seems a bit low considering it's at least on a par with severe
flu @ 1%?

rough total figures out today, for example, suggest 110,000 known/tested infected globally, producing 3800 deaths...

a 3.45% fatality rate overall amongst those who're known to have become infected, a figure that could quite easily be skewed/diluted by
unreported/mild cases, but even if we halve that figure to allow for
double the known amount of cases (220,000) that's still 1.72%... italy's
known cases of 7,375 and 366 deaths = 4.9% (or 2.48% allowing for nearly
15,000 cases)

place yer' bets on the 'final' figure percentage? (gamblers will bet on anything haha)

slider bets on a final figure of 2.5% plus or minus .25%

results coming around this time next year say? or earlier if/when it all fizzles out...

(the 'official' figure then whenever they eventually announce it with hindsight)

does your .065% still stand or would you like to change it? (the
plus/minus figure is an extra bet, smile...)

chris? haha stop pretending it doesn't exist and place yer' bet dammit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsYp9q3QNaQ

;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

we're fucked now, fucking stock market fell through
the floor, oil dropped crazy. what else can a poor
investor do? roll with it baby, here enjoy some
wipeout while you pray.:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YusHyd-duQ

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

we're fucked now,

### - haha tell me about it lol :)))

the news here today for example: (wooo)

1 hour ago.
Chief medical officer for England Professor Chris Whitty said that
“probably within the next 10-14 days” there will be “a situation where we say everybody who has even minor respiratory tract infections or a fever
should be self isolating for seven days afterwards”.

***

they defo should have done all this a fortnight ago and nipped it in the
bud then, now the pestilence has arrived (slider dramatically rents his garments cryin' unclean! unclean! lol...)

fucking stock market fell through
the floor, oil dropped crazy. what else can a poor
investor do?

### - invest in summat else less volatile perhaps? (old classic bikes
maybe, or gold)

roll with it baby, here enjoy some
wipeout while you pray.:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YusHyd-duQ

### - haha... we gots to accept there's NADA we can do about it... NADA!

so all one 'can' do (under the circumstances then) is to face it with
ultimate abandon and just do yer level best (iow: pay attention to
detail/small things) and actively weather it out come what may...

we can't stop what's coming? plus oddly enough the world is actually
wakin' up a bit via all this? they's gettin' a kick up the behind out of
it! (didn't think of that one heh...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArY0k-QkzO0

cheer up mon ami: "it's just our 19th nervous breakdown"

;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

cheer up mon ami: "it's just our 19th nervous breakdown"

how's that 'free will' workin' now for ya?

the only thing free are your assumptions.
you can make as many as you like.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

some days you should let your imagination
run away, and then other days you should
run WITH your imagination. If there is
anything godly in us (left) it is our
sweet imaginations. The trick is to know
when to follow it. It could be our direct
hook up with the cosmic commander that is
inspiring us. It could happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e65rzXbbM4

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

If there is
anything godly in us (left) it is our
sweet imaginations. The trick is to know
when to follow it. It could be our direct
hook up with the cosmic commander that is
inspiring us. It could happen.

### - the 'trick' is in accessing it reliably/enough-times to be able to
get summat worth having back out of it; of thus being able to access it
enough times to be able to follow things up...

and which is why dilds just don't cut-it in the final analysis; they're
too hit & miss to be useful beyond a point ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6soLcW1hxcQ

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

cheer up mon ami: "it's just our 19th nervous breakdown"

how's that 'free will' workin' now for ya?

the only thing free are your assumptions.
you can make as many as you like.

### - correct! life doesn't 'make' sense... it just... is :)

iow: making-sense of shit is thus only a human mania borne of fear & insecurity, scientists, for example, are just a bunch of similarly
obsessed peeps going around being all 'scientific' about everything haha
(makes 'em feel better i suppose...)

as for the fuckin' flu:

"He said that if I had to go
under it should be fighting, not apologizing or feeling sorry for myself,
and that it did not matter what our specific fate was as long as we faced
it
with ultimate abandon."

which sounds about right no? ;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

Whole of Italy placed on 'red zone' quarantine and all public events banned

'We have adopted a new decision based on an assumption: that there is no
time', PM says

The entire nation of Italy has been placed on lockdown with all public gatherings cancelled and all schools and universities closed until next
month, the nation's prime minister has said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-red-zone-events-cancelled-travel-latest-a9389151.html

Speaking at a televised press conference Giuseppe Conte said that a new government decree will require all people in Italy to demonstrate a need
to work, health conditions or other limited reasons to travel outside the
areas where they live.

The measures will take effect from Tuesday morning, extending those
effected from a population of 16 million in the north of the country, to
more than 60 million nation wide.

"There won't be just a red zone," Mr Conte told reporters referring to a lockdown of areas in the north, "there will be Italy" as a protected area.

Alongside travel restrictions schools and universities already shut down
across the nation will extend their closures until 3 April. Public
transport will remain operational - however Mr Conte urged the right
course for the country was for people to stay at home.

Italy has so far confirmed 9,172 cases of the virus and 463 deaths.

"We have adopted a new decision based on an assumption: that there is no
time", Mr Conte added.

"The numbers tell us that we are having an significant growth in
infections, in the people hospitalised in intensive and sub-intensive
care, and, alas, also in deceased people.

"Our habits therefore must be changed. They must be changed now."

It comes after the nation's Olympic committee confirmed all sports,
including football, will be suspended until further notice.

### - when 'individuals' with this are detected (or even just suspected
now) the best 'advice' to them is to self-isolate for 2 weeks?

well obviously then this also applies (or should apply) to nations as
well... italy, being the first to go on full lockdown; others now are
likely to follow suit albeit all a bit late in the day huh...

it's the only responsible thing to do! but we've fucked it up this time
around 'coz it's already everywhere by now? that as a global village we obviously didn't act soon enough this time!

that if this thing had been as deadly as say sars (which has a 20%
fatality rate) we'd have been in big trouble by now because we didn't collectively act soon enough??

valuable lessons for the future then huh...

i.e., we have to learn new ways to cope with new problems, and because the 'speed' at which this thing actually spread right around the globe was incredible!

the question being: how long after first detection should such full
lockdowns commence in order to be effective?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

"He said that if I had to go
under it should be fighting, not apologizing or feeling sorry for myself,
and that it did not matter what our specific fate was as long as we faced
it
with ultimate abandon."

which sounds about right no? ;)

we all have the same fate, we are fuckers who are going to croak.
remember now over 100 billion have already seen this movie. :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

### - an example of what 'actually' works to combat pandemics...


China halted the coronavirus using a 'social nuclear weapon' of extreme measures that other countries will struggle to replicate, an expert has
warned.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095965/China-halted-coronavirus-using-social-nuclear-weapon-extreme-measures.html

Nicholas A. Christakis, Sterling Professor of Social & Natural Science at
Yale University, took to Twitter yesterday to explain how China has
managed to rapidly de-escalate the threat of COVID-19 within its borders.

Christakis argues that China's unique collectivist culture, and
authoritarian government, have allowed it to combat the disease quickly
and efficiently.

'It [China] is well suited to fight a pandemic, if it indeed takes in
factual information and responds rationally,' Christiakis tweeted.

Earlier today, President Xi Jinping, told reporters that the disease had
been 'basically curbed' in Hubei province and Wuhan. China has 80,754
confirmed infections and a death tally of 3,136.

Christiakis traces China's success back to January 23, when the People's
Party imposed movement restrictions on provinces of over 930 million
people.

In early February, at least 48 cities and four provinces in China went further, issuing official notices for lockdown policies, with measures
ranging from 'closed-off management', where residents of a community have
to be registered before they are allowed in or out, to restrictions that
shut down highways, railways and public transport systems.

'[Closed-off management may] include: movement of people & vehicles is
checked with an exit-entrance permit[sic]; body temperature at entrance of community is checked; disinfection of vehicles; food delivery; permits for
only one person per household to go out,' Christiakis said.

The permits printed for the purpose of moving around the city, Christakis
said, are stamped with Chinese collectivist slogans, such as 'It is
everyone's responsibility to fight the virus'.

Another aspect of 'closed-off management' is the redirection of the labour force to serve the citizens trapped indoors.

In many regions, workers are being retrained and redirected to deliver
food to the public.

In some cities, people can only shop with a permit, or only one member of
the family can leave the property, Christakis said.

Children are now being taught from the safety of their home from Skype.

China is gradually lifting restrictions but officials are beginning to implement planning for the future, with inventive ideas being rolled out
across the country, Christiakis said.

One example is the sectioning of elevators into four equal parts, so that people keep an appropriate distance from each other.

In the lift, the sign reads: 'No more than four people in the elevator.
Please be patient and wait for the next elevator.'

A galvanising message below reads: 'Let's unite together to fight the
virus in this special period.'

China's unique political and social environment is what has helped it to
combat the virus so efficiently, Christakis claimed.

He said the US will struggle to mirror this with the tools at its disposal.

The last of Wuhan's 14 makeshift 'fang cang' hospitals closed today after treating 1,124 coronavirus patients, according to officials.

The Wuchang 'fang cang' hospital, which had been converted from Hongshan Gymnasium, discharged its last 49 patients at a closing ceremony, said the Wuhan government through its official social media account.

Wuchang hospital was the first 'fang cang' facility to open in the city.
It started to receive patients from February 5 and operated continuously
for 34 days.

A total of 833 patients recovered after being treated there and 291 people
were transferred to other medical facilities, authorities announced.

The city's health authorities ordered workers to turn sports halls and exhibition centres into temporary coronavirus medical centres on February
3.

Fourteen such facilities were set up, treating more than 12,000 people who suffered minor coronavirus infections.

On March 1, the 'fang cang' hospitals in Wuhan Gymnasium in Qiaokou
District became the first makeshift facility to close.

Two others shut on March 6 and March 8 respectively and another two
discharged their last patients yesterday.

***

which might all seem a bit draconian to the likes of us, but if it works??

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

"He said that if I had to go
under it should be fighting, not apologizing or feeling sorry for
myself,
and that it did not matter what our specific fate was as long as we
faced
it
with ultimate abandon."

which sounds about right no? ;)

we all have the same fate, we are fuckers who are going to croak.
remember now over 100 billion have already seen this movie. :)

### - not having deliberately bought tickets to come here, freewill exists
only in how one chooses to meet the prevailing conditions/circumstances
that we've been presented with :)

iow: the only freedom we have is to act either like a conditioned asshole
or as someone geared-up to more consciously try and meet those conditions/circumstances head-on... most not even bothering beyond maybe getting into some kinda work-ethic/money/home-thing about having a family, paying the bills and maybe having a little bit left over for vacations,
and that's it - for life! - never ever even really reviewing that
situation until they're already nearly worn out and whereon they don't
then really have any energy left to actually do much about it...

the vikings, for example, honestly believed that the only way to get into 'valhalla' (their conceptualised idea of heaven and/or of something more
beyond death; every culture has something similar) was to die in battle consciously facing the very odds we're presented with on a daily/moment-to-moment basis, that cringing and turning away from it
(hiding and/or pretending it's not there) was the worst possible thing
anyone could ever do! our whole 'society' basically represented by the
latter! (lol talk about a ship of fools huh??)

but then this is the human condition: in that it's far more easy to be an asshole (and basically do nada) than to go to all the trouble of living
one's life being more consciously aware of being alive... (we are assholes
by default lol :)))

one way automatically giving rise to wallyworld in all it's dumbest glory
& ignorance, the other obviously being (and producing) something
completely different because it 'precludes' ever living like such a
wallyjob...

examples? the australian aborigines have remained unchanged (at least
until now + expressly due to our doing) for probably 150,000 years if not
more, only 70,000 years of which were spent in australia and which
apparently revolves directly around aspects of dreaming - versus our
modern societies dating back only 5000 or so years by comparison: 'slave' societies basically! with no freedom at all except to help build the next fuckin' pyramid, empire and/or whatever!

that something dire must have happened to our branch of the species to
render it so completely materially minded, and which only seems cool to us because that's all we've ever known?

perforce, picking one's way through a minefield of religious +
semi-religious 'distortions' and aberrations, is par for the course for
anyone seeking to get-out of wallyworld, that is assuming they even wanna
get out in the first place hah!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_Rj47nm0Q

"look around you, what do you see?"

bs everywhere ya look haha ;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

"look around you, what do you see?"

bs everywhere ya look haha ;)

flyers everywhere, they are already out there.

### - haha no they's not... flyers?? riiight... :)))

we are all equally fucked. how did it ever
get this way?

### - something happened to us compared to the aborigines alright, plato
said he heard of an ancient story about some kinda disaster that nearly
wiped everyone out, the few survivors of which were left totally alone,
like orphans, to bring themselves up with no direct knowledge of their
previous technology other than stories, a bit like what would likely
happen to us today if there was such a disaster in that any survivors
would prolly be thrown back into the stone age...

the aborigines, otoh, have an unbroken line going back at least 100
millennia and quite probably a lot more... all their ways harking back to
some 'other' arrangement of perception altogether, one so culturally rich
& fulfilling that they never really bothered to develop/emphasise the
material side of life that much (kept it all to around only 2% compared to
our 5%?) 'their' ancient creation stories & myths all being about us (and everything else in this world) somehow magically emerging out of the 'Dreamtime' as in some kinda sorcerers tale! (a very curious idea anyway
huh + it ain't like we haven't heard summat like that before?)

spin the wheel, take your chances
on your next lifetime. Well.... does ya feel lucky ?

### - we make our own luck imho heh; fortune favouring the daring/brave
and all that?

it's also an injunction to 'act' rather than remaining passive about our
life situation (which is another reason i favour WILDs over dilds etc;
that dilds are too passive to be usefully manipulated unless you already
know what you're doing & why...)

so, and after a near lifetime of researching, the best have ever found?

standing at the midway point where access to 'knowledge-direct' becomes possible.

and because, right there, is yer' gen-u-ine 'portal of intent' & 'silent knowledge' for want of better description... and because we don't have any other names for this currently...

what people 'do' with all this though is entirely up to them; sociologists
will undoubtedly ask sociological questions, geologists will wanna know
about rocks & mathematicians will wanna discover new formulas, and will!
the more mundane will ask about lost keys and missing bill-folds + who did
what to whom & why lol, things is gonna get more complicated heh...

smile, and they'll prolly make lots of mistakes alright, but should
eventually unravel it all + gain hopefully valuable insights into our own (currently hidden) nature in the process...

laberge didn't emphasise it (he went all-in on dilds) but i do emphasise
it!

it's the hidden side of the coin! the missing piece of the puzzle!

it's the 'active' side of dreaming hah! (true...)

the volitional side of infinity? ;)

(haha crank-up the t-shirts pal, methinks we've hit the mofo-lode! :)))

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_Rj47nm0Q

"look around you, what do you see?"

bs everywhere ya look haha ;)

flyers everywhere, they are already out there.
we are all equally fucked. how did it ever
get this way? spin the wheel, take your chances
on your next lifetime. Well.... does ya feel lucky ?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

### - and by contrast:


Health expert: 'Coronavirus lethality in Italy higher than China'

Rome, Italy - A few minutes after Italy announced unprecedented travel restrictions on its 60 million people on Monday to control the deadly coronavirus outbreak in the country, Al Jazeera talked to Nino
Cartabellotta, a leading Italian public health expert, professor and
president of Gruppo Italiano per la Medicina Basata sulle Evidenze or
GIMBE - Italy's Group for Evidence-based Medicine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/health-expert-coronavirus-lethality-italy-higher-china-200310120514339.html

"Finally, the decision has been taken," Cartabellotta said in an interview
by phone, welcoming the extension of the quarantine zone to all of the
country.

"It was about time. This is the only way we can tackle the spread of the
virus effectively."

His research institute has been gathering data and following the
coronavirus outbreak since its onset in China and belongs to a taskforce recently set up to advise Italy's Ministry of Health.

Cartabellotta has been vocal throughout the epidemic, calling for strict containment measures to be implemented since late February.

Al Jazeera: How has the virus has spread so quickly?

Nino Cartabellotta: We noticed that the virus had first extended across
the Hubei province, then to its provincial neighbours, and eventually
across China. We knew the same dynamic would have repeated in other
countries. The more days that passed, the clearer it became that the virus would have reached everywhere, thanks to its high transmissibility and
through asymptomatic cases.

The virus arrived in Italy most likely in the first or second week of
January, much before the closure of the country's air traffic from and to
China on January 30, when people still thought suspending flights might
have spared us the infection.

Al Jazeera: Some say the current lockdown should have been implemented
earlier. Has a delay made the situation more critical?

Cartabellotta: Following the announcement of the first few cases in Italy,
we immediately understood we would have gone through such a vast epidemic.
The COVID-19 outbreak was driven by the spread in hospitals in Italy. In
such cases, the number of infected patients skyrockets very fast.

Before Monday, measures had been taken in fits and starts because of
political and economic factors amid an attempt to protect the national
economy, without considering in full all the evaluations that we had
presented at the institutional level.

Italian politics took a wait-and-see approach. More or less rigorous
measures have been taken based on what was unfolding on the ground. But
the virus doesn't work this way. The virus moves extremely quickly.

We would have needed to take such draconian containment measures for the
whole country since March 1. It doesn't make sense to put regional,
provincial or city borders in such a situation. A policy of
procrastination is not a solution amid an epidemic.

But Europe is just doing the same. There hasn't been any coordination at
the European level on this issue, no preparation plan in case of a
pandemic neither at the national nor at the bloc level. I'm not aware of
any European country having a plan against a pandemic ready to be rolled
out.

Policies like those implemented by China's ruling Communist Party that
closed down Hubei for about three weeks are those that really pay off at
the moment. We are seeing their positive results as China is now getting
out of the tunnel. All other partial containment measures are not
proportioned to the speed of the virus.

Politics hasn't understood how this virus spreads yet. Each country
thought of itself as being immune from the infection, as if the virus
would have never reached its borders.

Decisions are simply taken as events precipitate.

Al Jazeera: How will Italy's health system cope?

Cartabellotta: I am very worried about the resilience of our healthcare
system. All measures of social containment are meant to slow down the
spread of the virus and distribute the emergence of new cases over a
longer period. This could give the health system time to prepare. But this
was not possible to do in Lombardy and I fear that we won't be able to
prevent the infection escalation also in the other regions.

Italian citizens have been completely undisciplined, the government has
been playing at drawing new hypothetical borders on a map, depending on
the daily increment of the number of cases. We never acted with a clear
goal of preventing the infection from spreading. We have already problems
in the south to carry out normal healthcare routines, let's not even talk
about coping with an epidemic of this sort. I fear we will witness a very
high number of deaths.

Al Jazeera: How would you characterise the current situation?

Cartabellotta: We have been seeing an ever-growing increase of the number
of cases in other regions as of March 1. So far, there hasn't been any
positive effect resulting from the containment measures previously
implemented. Based on the data we gathered, we are recording a daily
increase of the cases by 25 percent. Until the moment that the containment measures start showing some results, this rate will stay pretty much
stable, unless a new vast outbreak emerges.

Lethality in Italy is higher than China because we are only doing swab
tests on patients with symptoms, while we have estimated that asymptomatic cases might be around 15,000 at the moment. We are just scratching the
surface of the virus diagnostics here. Also, the 6.1 percent lethality
rate registered in Lombardy, shows that the healthcare system no longer
holds. More people are dying because the system is saturated.

Al Jazeera: Are you suggesting containment measures are ineffective?

Cartabellotta: Draconian measures are always effective. Still, we cannot predict to what extent, as we don't know how widespread the virus is, especially in Italy's central and southern regions. It is important that
other countries understand that the later they implement severe measures,
the fewer the results. Every day of delay creates more infected, patients
in need of ICUs and deaths. China taught us this.

Al Jazeera: Has Italy ever dealt with a similar crisis?

Cartabellotta: Italy never faced such an epidemic in recent history. This
is not comparable to what happened during the 2003 SARS outbreak. There is
a generational lack of preparation to fight and handle a pandemic. The
absence of a plan set in place will also completely wear out our public healthcare system, which has been already severely hit by cuts and lack of investment in the past decade.

Al Jazeera: What should be done in case containment measures do not work?

Cartabellotta: There are no other measures available. Everyone should stay
home and obediently and completely stick to all the behavioural rules
given by the government. European countries should also implement our
stringent measures as soon as possible, as a similar destiny is coming to
their doors. The longer we wait the higher the number of deaths.

***

the solution in a nutshell :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

### - some breaking news here...

Health minister Nadine Dorries 'has coronavirus'

The MP who works for the Department of Health and Social Care has tested positive for Covid-19, The Times has reported.

Ms Dorries has been in parliament this week and attended a reception at No
10 with Boris Johnson.

### - how ironic that the 'health minister' should catch it? the boris
maybe next?

oh well, now the rich & famous are gettin' it too lol they'll no doubt
start gettin' their wallets out a bit quicker now to help solve the
situation :)))

plus god forbid one of them dies from it?? (hey old boris is gettin' on a
bit innit eh? karma might gets ya in the end for the bedroom tax boris!
haha + only kidding?)

;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 2:33:21 PM UTC-4, slider wrote:

we're fucked now,

### - haha tell me about it lol :)))

the news here today for example: (wooo)

1 hour ago.
Chief medical officer for England Professor Chris Whitty said that “probably within the next 10-14 days” there will be “a situation where

we

say everybody who has even minor respiratory tract infections or a fever should be self isolating for seven days afterwards”.

***

they defo should have done all this a fortnight ago and nipped it in the bud then, now the pestilence has arrived (slider dramatically rents his garments cryin' unclean! unclean! lol...)

fucking stock market fell through
the floor, oil dropped crazy. what else can a poor
investor do?

### - invest in summat else less volatile perhaps? (old classic bikes maybe, or gold)

roll with it baby, here enjoy some
wipeout while you pray.:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YusHyd-duQ

### - haha... we gots to accept there's NADA we can do about it... NADA!

so all one 'can' do (under the circumstances then) is to face it with ultimate abandon and just do yer level best (iow: pay attention to detail/small things) and actively weather it out come what may...

we can't stop what's coming? plus oddly enough the world is actually
wakin' up a bit via all this? they's gettin' a kick up the behind out of it! (didn't think of that one heh...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArY0k-QkzO0

cheer up mon ami: "it's just our 19th nervous breakdown"

;)

Yes, a common to unite mankind, and of course it's invisible,
and of course, it can get inside you and of course it tries to kill you.

Mother Nature stealing Father Times MOJO!! Yeah Babee!

https://youtu.be/fK8mneO8yvU

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Thu, 5 Mar 2020 14:25:58 -0800 (PST), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

A thread for well written covid-19 articles

Which is fine, but this thing is changing so fast that even something
only one or two days out of date is completely useless.

After you posted this, the entire NATION of Italy was locked down.
There's nothing forecasting that below.

[]

March 4, 2020 3:05PM
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
By Alan Reynolds >https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

[]

“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street Journal

headline in print before it was toned down online. COVID-19 deaths at a nursing
home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virus spreading “across the U.S.�
�� The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection
from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.

The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing home and Evergreen hospital represents high-?risk concentrations of vulnerable seniors. Among those who died in Washington, all but two were in their 70s or 80s (the other two

in their 50s) and most had “underlying health conditions.” Evergreen hospital
has two more in critical condition, in their 70s and 90s, both with underlying conditions.

What we just learned from Washington was already known from China’s experience A February 24 article by Katarina Zimmer in The Scientist provides an excellent summary:

“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed

cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre-?existing illnesses and the elderly.While less than 1
percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate
for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in China]
proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality
rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”

The Scientist article point about the death rate being “less than 1 percent” among the healthy and also the point about the 2.3% Chinese estimate

being a “an overestimate” because “many mild cases might go undiagnosed” underscore similar
points I made in a March 2 blog. My concern is that misinformation about COVID-19 has fueled
excessive fear of the virus by greatly exaggerating the actual death rate per hundred people infected (the infection fatality rate).

I suggested that if we took unreported mild cases into account, the actual death rate among infected people outside China may be as low as 0.5%. Skeptics greeted death rates of 0.5–1.0% as Panglossian heresy. Yet the rigorous February 10 study I cited,

from Imperial College London, concluded the global infection fatality ratio was
about 1.0. My estimate is lower than 1.0 because I exclude China where (I argue) high fatality rates in Wuhan were exaggerated by overcounting institutionalized elderly with serious infection.

On February 29, Denise Grady, The New York Times’ veteran health and medicine reporter, independently came to conclusions not unlike those Katarina Zimmer and I did within a few days of each other – namely than fewer than 1% of people infected with

COVID-19 are likely to die from it, and that the odds of death are lower that that
for healthy non-?elderly people. Ms. Grady explained these facts in The New York Times as follows [with emphasis added]:

“Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower

rate: 1.4 percent. The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-?free cases that have not been detected. The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr.
Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy
and
Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

Despite two health science writers and one economist trying to warn people that widely hyped mortality rates greatly exaggerate the risk (not to mention Drs. Fauci, Lane and Redfield) exaggerated estimates continue to grab the headlines.

On March 4, The New York Times reported, “Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that… ‘Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-?19 cases have died.” “By comparison,”

he added, ” seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

To the newspaper’s credit, The New York Times apparently felt obliged to caution readers that the WHO’s 3.4 percent death rate is quite implausible, if not wildly inaccurate: “The figure does not include mild cases that do not

require medical
attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than
elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower. Still, it was the first time that the organization had offered a global mortality rate for the disease.”

Ironically, my previous blog quoted Dr. Tedros Adhanom saying, “Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.”

Because most cases are mild, as he said, and because mild cases are excluded by definition from “reported cases,” the WHO’s alleged 3.4% mortality rate is nothing more than sensationalist nonsense.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Tue, 10 Mar 2020 17:57:52 -0000, slider <slider@atashram.com>
wrote:

"He said that if I had to go
under it should be fighting, not apologizing or feeling sorry for
myself,
and that it did not matter what our specific fate was as long as we
faced
it
with ultimate abandon."

which sounds about right no? ;)

we all have the same fate, we are fuckers who are going to croak.
remember now over 100 billion have already seen this movie. :)

### - not having deliberately bought tickets to come here, freewill exists >only in how one chooses to meet the prevailing conditions/circumstances
that we've been presented with :)

iow: the only freedom we have is to act either like a conditioned asshole
or as someone geared-up to more consciously try and meet those >conditions/circumstances head-on... most not even bothering beyond maybe >getting into some kinda work-ethic/money/home-thing about having a family, >paying the bills and maybe having a little bit left over for vacations,
and that's it - for life! - never ever even really reviewing that
situation until they're already nearly worn out and whereon they don't
then really have any energy left to actually do much about it...

the vikings, for example, honestly believed that the only way to get into >'valhalla' (their conceptualised idea of heaven and/or of something more >beyond death; every culture has something similar) was to die in battle >consciously facing the very odds we're presented with on a >daily/moment-to-moment basis, that cringing and turning away from it
(hiding and/or pretending it's not there) was the worst possible thing
anyone could ever do! our whole 'society' basically represented by the >latter! (lol talk about a ship of fools huh??)

but then this is the human condition: in that it's far more easy to be an >asshole (and basically do nada) than to go to all the trouble of living
one's life being more consciously aware of being alive... (we are assholes
by default lol :)))

one way automatically giving rise to wallyworld in all it's dumbest glory
& ignorance, the other obviously being (and producing) something
completely different because it 'precludes' ever living like such a >wallyjob...

examples? the australian aborigines have remained unchanged (at least
until now + expressly due to our doing) for probably 150,000 years if not >more, only 70,000 years of which were spent in australia and which
apparently revolves directly around aspects of dreaming - versus our
modern societies dating back only 5000 or so years by comparison: 'slave' >societies basically! with no freedom at all except to help build the next >fuckin' pyramid, empire and/or whatever!

that something dire must have happened to our branch of the species to
render it so completely materially minded, and which only seems cool to us >because that's all we've ever known?

So if your long lost great aunt died and left you 2 million pounds,
you'd be appalled and give it all to charity?

You're full of hypocritical shite Brian.

perforce, picking one's way through a minefield of religious +
semi-religious 'distortions' and aberrations, is par for the course for >anyone seeking to get-out of wallyworld, that is assuming they even wanna
get out in the first place hah!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_Rj47nm0Q

"look around you, what do you see?"

bs everywhere ya look haha ;)

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Tue, 10 Mar 2020 13:36:18 -0700 (PDT), luckyrat
<allreadydun@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_Rj47nm0Q

"look around you, what do you see?"

bs everywhere ya look haha ;)

flyers everywhere, they are already out there.
we are all equally fucked. how did it ever
get this way? spin the wheel, take your chances
on your next lifetime. Well.... does ya feel lucky ?

No other lifetime. This was your life pal. Hope ya didn't waste
it...



The cradle rocks above an abyss, and common sense
tells us that our existence is but a brief crack of light
between two eternities of darkness.

VLADIMIR NABOKOV,
Speak, Memory: A Memoir

--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Mon, 9 Mar 2020 13:18:06 -0700 (PDT), luckyrat
<allreadydun@gmail.com> wrote:

"He said that if I had to go
under it should be fighting, not apologizing or feeling sorry for myself,
and that it did not matter what our specific fate was as long as we faced
it
with ultimate abandon."

which sounds about right no? ;)

we all have the same fate, we are fuckers who are going to croak.
remember now over 100 billion have already seen this movie. :)

You keep mentioning this. You seem scared.


--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

No other lifetime. This was your life pal. Hope ya didn't waste
it...

as if you could buy a clue.
how does it feel to be stupid and full of hate?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A thread for well written covid-19 articles

Which is fine, but this thing is changing so fast that even something
only one or two days out of date is completely useless.

After you posted this, the entire NATION of Italy was locked down.
There's nothing forecasting that below.

I use this map to track the spread. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

According to my sister we had incidents of panic shopping similar
to Australia... tissue paper of all things was wiped out.

Glad I stocked up early.
Although three face towels and a sink full of antibacterial dish soap
followed by a bleach rinse and air dry could turn 10 face towels into
a permanent cycle of hygiene. No different than changing a baby using
extra cotton diapers as wipers. Panic is not good strategy.

[]

March 4, 2020 3:05PM
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
By Alan Reynolds >https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

[]

“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street

Journal

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A map to track the spread. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Another resource
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

In my area 14 became 49 became 97 in two days.
They closed Harvard University and cancelled our annual half marathon 13k race.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

My Model From Post Five In This Thread

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate of 3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have been the perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate
0.16 % Mortality Rate
6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

An extrapolation article.
[]

Is Trump Right About Covid-19 Death Rates?

https://www.libertynation.com/is-trump-right-about-covid-19-death-rates/?utm_source=whatfinger

The real corona virus death rate for a developed nation may be as low as 0.1%.

Recently, President Donald Trump said that he had a “hunch” that the death rate of Covid-19 is lower than what is officially reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). The partisan media are slamming him over this and other comments. Is the
criticism justified, or is Trump correct?
Confusion About Numbers

When WHO in March reported that the death rate was 3.4%, many people became alarmed because this is around 30 times higher than the regular flu and nearly twice previous estimates. This percentage is calculated by dividing recorded deaths by confirmed
cases of the virus. At the time of writing, these numbers globally are 4,004 and 114,078, respectively, giving a confirmed death rate of 3.5%.

The keyword here is confirmed.

It is far easier to identify if someone is severely ill or dead from the virus than detecting it in people who show no symptoms. Therefore, we can say with great certainty that the confirmed death rate is a max number. The real number is almost certainly
lower, and it depends on how many cases go undetected.

If the real number of infected is, for instance, ten times higher than recorded, the death rate is 0.35%, not much higher than the ordinary flu.
A Realistic Estimate

So far, we have only one group of people in which the infection can be fully documented, and that is those on the cruise ship Diamond Princess. Of the 696 cases, only seven have died, which gives a death rate of 1%. Complicating the matter considerably,
however, is the demographics of the ship. According to statistics from Northern
Italy, 99% of the people who die from the virus are 60 years or older. This age
demographic made up 58% of the passengers on Diamond Princess. Thus, the correct death rate in
a more representative population is lower than 1%.

South Korea, the developed country affected earliest by the virus, may give a more accurate picture of how lethal it is. As of writing, 7,478 cases have been
identified, of which 53 have died, which yields a death rate of 0.7%.

Many developed countries, such as Singapore, Austria, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Denmark, and Australia, have not had a single death, which indicates that in rich, healthy countries, Covid-19 may be no more deadly than the regular flu.

These low numbers prompted Assistant Secretary for Health at the Department of Health and Human Services, Admiral Brett Giroir, to say that “the best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for Covid-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%.”
Trump’s Handling

Thus, not only was Trump’s hunch that the death rate was lower than 3.4% correct, it would have been irresponsible of him not to make this comment. A panic is potentially far more dangerous than the virus itself. So far, the decisive actions of the
Trump administration have kept the infection at a meager rate of only 1.9 cases
per million. Compare this to Italy, which has 151.7 cases per million for the whole country, and nearly 330 documented cases per million in Northern Italy.

No other Western nation has handled the crisis better than the United States. Ideally, its residents should be worried enough to improve their hand hygiene and reduce unnecessary exposure, but not so scared that it causes panic, stock market crashes, and
unnecessary anxiety.

Covid-19 demonstrates that the mainstream media seem unable to talk about any topic without politicizing it. Not even a virus escapes their partisanship.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A technique from early medicine - plasma transfers - has proven very helpful. One recovered person can supply plasma for three recovering persons.


https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/1237892870331191297

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

### - denmark has gone into lockdown mode early even though they don't
have any reported infections there yet, so should be interesting to see
what happens there as a model for what might 'not'
have happened elsewhere if everywhere else had locked down early too?

advice being given here today of anyone over 60 taking extra care not to
get this thing at all being the best idea, to preferably stay home + limit contact with anyone else, although how such peeps are exactly gonna manage
that for months on end is less clear, but the advice now is to avoid
getting it altogether if you're aged 60 or over...

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

No other lifetime. This was your life pal. Hope ya didn't waste
it...

as if you could buy a clue.
how does it feel to be stupid and full of hate?

### - pay no attention/lol why bother? in truth he's prolly just some fat fuckin' 25-stone couch-potatoe living on its own with a severe mental disability and not a bean to his name all along, literally the 'opposite'
of everything he's ever claimed + boasted to be! (he protesteth & boasteth
far too much ya know?) and is obviously a bitter + twisted asshole to boot without even a modicum of social nor moral conscience to its name, quite possibly even a deeply disturbed + deranged psychopath with the mind of a child!

and who, with a bit of luck/karma, prolly wont be around for very much
longer after having now CURSED ITSELF with the coronavirus?? LOL (and it
did it all to itself too hah! perfection!) :)

and, who ultimately, was just another 'parasite' on the neck of humanity draggin' it all down by being ALL of the things he's ever accused everyone
ELSE of being! (totally hates itself, see?)

iow: was just another insane, no-hoper, nutjob :)))

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Studying the virus on surfaces. Three day survival on metal and plastic.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615348/heres-how-long-the-coronavirus-can-stay-in-the-air-and-on-packages/?utm_source=whatfinger

[] Article

Biotechnology
Here’s how long the coronavirus can live in the air and on packages
The virus prefers steel and plastic, materials commonly found in hospitals and homes. by Antonio Regalado
Mar 11, 2020

The contagious coronavirus can survive on a cardboard delivery box for at least
a day and lives even longer on steel and plastic.

A big question in the outbreak of Covid-19, which has already infected more than 110,000, is how the germ that causes it moves so easily between people. Although many viruses and germs can survive on ordinary objects, zeroing in on precisely how the new
coronavirus does it could help stem the epidemic.

To help find an answer, US researchers tried spritzing the virus on seven materials commonly found in homes and hospitals, to see how long it remained infectious.

The germ survived longest on plastic and stainless steel, where it clung for as
long as three days, according to Vincent Munster and a team at the National Institutes of Health virology laboratory in Hamilton, Montana, who describe their experiments in a
new preprint.

That suggests hospital equipment is a potential vector for disease, as are strap-hanger poles on subways.

So far, however, there is no definitive proof the virus is actually spread via inanimate objects. “We don’t know if you can pick up Covid-19 from contaminated surfaces or inanimate objects at this point. That’s the bottom line,” says Marilyn
Roberts, a microbiologist at the University of Washington School of Public Health.

Doctors testing patients know that the virus is present in large amounts in people’s upper respiratory tract, making it likely that it gets spread when they cough or sneeze, spraying tiny droplets and aerosols into the air and onto
surfaces.

“Virus stability in air and on surfaces may directly affect virus transmission, as virus particles need to remain viable long enough after being expelled from the host to be taken up by a novel host,” Munster and his team write.

Munster and his coworkers say spreading via the air likely explains “super spreader” events like one that appears to have occurred in Boston, where more
than 70 people are believed to have been infected at a conference held by the biotechnology
company Biogen.

The scientists looked at how long the virus lived on different materials, and also as it swirled in an air chamber. After waiting a few hours or days, they wiped the surfaces and checked to see if they could still infect cells in a petri dish.

Materials the virus liked best were stainless steel and plastic, where infectious germs could still be collected after three days and might endure quite a bit longer. It liked copper least: the virus was gone after just four hours. Swished around in the
air chamber, the germs remained for about three hours.

It will take detailed epidemiological studies to find out for sure exactly how the virus spreads, but the new lab findings indicate it can at least cling to cardboard boxes such as Amazon packages, or plastic cell-phone cases.

With some viruses, like influenza, touching a surface can sweep up millions of viral particles in just a few seconds. Other studies show that people touch their faces more than 20 times every hour. Cold temperature and low humidity let viruses live even
longer.

Health authorities are recommending that people wash their hands frequently and
use alcohol-based cleansers to disinfect surfaces. It’s known that coronaviruses are fairly easy to kill; rubbing alcohol and diluted hydrogen peroxide are among the
effective weapons.

In a February review of what’s already known about this type of virus, German
researchers said that within a minute of cleaning a surface, a million viral particles can be reduced to 100, likely reducing the risk of infection.

The NIH researchers compared the new virus with SARS and found that the two germs stuck around for similar lengths of time. SARS caused an outbreak in 2003
but was not so easily transmitted, which means other factors play a role in why
Covid-19 is
spreading faster.

While those reasons aren’t fully understood, the NIH researchers speculate that people with the new coronavirus could be shedding it even if they don’t have symptoms or that that it takes less of the virus for a person to become infected, a metric
known as the “infectious dose.”

The researchers say they are now looking at how long the virus lasts in snot, spit, and fecal matter, and under what temperatures and humidity levels.

— with reporting by Mike Orcutt

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Hotspo - S. Korea Death rate 0.7

https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/bbc-buries-lead-8th-paragraph-coronavirus-death-rate-only-07-s-korea-due?utm_source=whatfinger

BBC Buries the Lead in 8th Paragraph: Coronavirus Death Rate Only 0.7% in S. Korea Due to Thorough Testing
By Craig Bannister | March 12, 2020 | 11:58am EDT

(Getty Images/Andrea Verdelli)

A BBC article devotes seven paragraphs warning about the coronavirus threat in South Korea before mentioning that the country’s “trace, test and treat” policies may be proof that the fatality rate reported worldwide is greatly inflated because so
many asymptomatic cases are going unidentified.

The story, “Coronavirus in South Korea: How 'trace, test and treat' may be saving lives,” provides personal accounts of South Koreans who have either been subjected to, or who conduct, coronavirus testing. But, in the eighth paragraph, the article
drops a bombshell statistic – South Korea’s coronavirus fatality rate is nearly five times lower than that reported globally – before returning to its
narration:

“Health officials believe this approach may be saving lives. The fatality
rate for coronavirus in South Korea is 0.7%. Globally the World Health Organization has reported 3.4% - but scientists estimate that the death rate is
lower because not all
cases are reported.”

The BBC story also mentions that South Korea has the highest per capita coronavirus testing of any country in the world.

The implication: with more widespread testing, more people with coronavirus who
have either no, or very mild, symptoms are identified – making the number of deaths a smaller percentage of the number of recorded coronavirus cases. Thus, the fatality
rates being widely reported by the media may be greatly exaggerated.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/diagnostics/rapid-portable-tests-coronavirus-news


Wanted: Rapid, Portable Tests for Coronavirus

New devices may diagnose the virus in as few as 5 minutes. But in some cases, the government has slowed their development
By Megan Scudellari


BioMedomics rapid COVID-19 testing system.(picture)


At Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, a potential COVID-19 patient can now drive in to the ambulance bay, roll down their window, and ask staff to swab their nose and throat.

Those swabs will be sent to a state lab for a real-time PCR test, which amplifies any viral genetic material so it can be compared to the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. But this standard test must be carried out in a certified laboratory with trained
technicians, takes 3 to 4 days to deliver results, and produces some false negatives.

To speed and improve coronavirus testing, groups around the world are working to make rapid tests that can be done on-the-spot and diagnose the presence of the virus in just minutes.

Yet some companies have faced delays as they await government approval for testing or commercialization. On 29 February, the U.S. government finally released new rules that speed the approval process for new diagnostic tests, which may help the field
move forward.

“The big benefit of our test over the traditional molecular PCR test is speed, and also that it can be deployed at point-of-care,” says Kent Lupino, director of marketing at BioMedomics, which has a rapid COVID-19 test currently
being used in China
and Europe. The test detects the body’s immune response to the virus from a few drops of blood in 15 minutes. The company is in the process of seeking approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use.

Jiangsu Medomics, the China-based sister company of BioMedomics, has already sold nearly 500,000 of the rapid tests in China, where they are being used at doctor’s offices, hospitals, and screening checkpoints, such as train stations and airports, says
Lupino. The company does, however, recommend that a positive result from their rapid test be confirmed with a PCR test. BioMedomics currently has capacity to produce a million tests per week and could expand quickly, says Lupino.


Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech E25Bio already makes a rapid diagnostic test for dengue virus. Their technology relies on gold nanoparticles covered in
specialized antibodies that hook onto parts of a virus or proteins secreted by a virus,
producing a result in as little as five minutes, like a pregnancy test, says Irene Bosch, co-founder and CTO of E25Bio.

When coronavirus emerged, the company spent 23 days doing a high-throughput screen of their antibody library and produced several new antibodies based on the novel virus. “We were able to quickly iterate what we do in other viruses
and apply our tech
to SARS-CoV-2,” says Bosch.

E25Bio now has all the components of their test ready for coronavirus diagnosis, but no access to the virus to test it. “The scientific community in Boston had not been cleared by the Department of Public Health in Massachusetts to open a vial of virus
within secure facilities,” says Bosch. She has been waiting two months for access to the virus, despite running a laboratory that already works with zika,
dengue, and West Nile virus, among others. The company’s manufacturer said they can shift from
dengue to coronavirus and produce 100,000 coronavirus tests per day, says Bosch—once the test is ready. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences did not immediately respond to a request for
comment.

At the University of Cincinnati, Chong Ahn and colleagues are adapting a smartphone-based rapid test for infectious diseases such as malaria. Their three-part design, published in January in the journal Microsystems & Nanoengineering, uses a custom,
disposable plastic lab-on-a-chip; an optical detector that plugs into a smartphone and reads the chip; and a custom smartphone app that stores, analyzes and transmits the data.

With a single drop of blood or saliva on the chip, a smartphone will produce a result in 10 to 20 minutes, says Ahn, an electrical and biomedical engineer. His team is now adapting their platform to test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but
additional testing, clinical trials, and manufacturing could take six months to
a year, he adds.

Rapid point-of-care testing will be critical for handling pandemic diseases like coronavirus now and in the future, says Ahn. In addition to detecting infections, such tests will also be valuable to measure the effectiveness of antiviral drugs and
vaccines against the virus.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A very informative reassuring strategic pronouncement
by governments nation state and local involving all key partners
in the corporate world.

The State Of Emergency Declaration - Press Event

A Strategic Overview - With various tactical assessments and maps.
The stock market rebounded 2000 points upward on the information relayed.
Most importantly we are opening drive thru testing centers in Walmart
parking lots nationwide. All events and sports canceled, universities are switching to online classes only, zero visitors allowed in nursing homes
and hospitals unless it is an end of life goodbye.
Google has 1700 engineers building the test results website.
America is locked and loaded.

https://youtu.be/q_WM_pMp0Hg?t=3438

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

### - made + publicly posted this short vid/slide(r)show on fb today re
the effects this virus thing is starting to have on the peeps here...

https://www.facebook.com/100007907715384/videos/2599114417028790/

it's already collected 85 views through being shared...

and only remains to be seen if it goes viral or not? (no puns intended heh)

;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: allreadydun@gmail.com

https://www.facebook.com/100007907715384/videos/2599114417028790/

old Cream song, seems to fit somewhat:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho-teZSjgZY

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

America is locked and loaded.

### - and not a moment too soon either! we really gots to jump on this
thing before it gets too big!

in the uk, however, hah, they appear to have decided to just let everyone
here get it now?? (wtf!)

e.g., 2-weeks recommended isolation has now been reduced to only 7 days
for example, while discussions re: 'building up a body of immunity amongst
the population' against future reemergences of this same virus in the
years to come, has been deemed more important than bringing it all to a
total halt now by locking everything down...

that while, for example, countries everywhere else are closing their
schools as being obviously potential centers of rapidly spreading any
infection (i.e., because kids share colds & flu's etc very easily amongst themselves and then bring it home with them) here they've decided 'not' to close them yet?? that what they're 'really' worried about instead is
parents having to then remain at home too in order to look after their
kids if all the schools are closed!

iow: they're worrying more about the effect upon the fucking economy
rather than providing the 'best' care & advice available for the
population at large! damn! (mainly because if the schools were closed even
the police, for example, would likely become massively short-handed too...)

so then, plans are instead being made for 'accepting' mass infection here instead of warding it off, including (apparently) that of triaging the
sick to the point of not bothering to even treat those deemed to have
become too ill to likely survive so as not to over-stress the health
services when this thing peaks??? double damn!

imho, denmark has been the only one so far to have acted in a timely
enough manner by closing its borders and locking everything down 'before' they've even had their first case of it! (bravo denmark!)

with so many different such 'experiments' going-on globally, however, it
will be good to look back in a couple of years or so to see/record which approach actually afforded the most protection overall?

the lessons we're learning now about how to 'actually' handle these things correctly + effectively (and economically too) will surely prove
invaluable in the future when perhaps even more lethal shit starts doing
the rounds too, as it inevitably will!

accordingly then lol, we may indeed be decimated in the uk this time
around, but then not to worry peeps, our 'future' will be assured as we'll
no doubt be soon leading the world in the 'actual' immunity to covid19
stakes, while the rest of the world suffers year-on-year local epidemic
after epidemic because they *didn't* let enough people DIE the first time around?? (hard sarcasm lol)

at the rate it's going; perhaps 2 or 3 more (+ maybe also different)
future pandemics will thus train humanity to have to act more correctly/effectively in these matters then huh...

as it currently stands though, we don't appear to 'really' know what we're doing? it's all conjecture and simulated projections + grand political
speeches as opposed to having any hard facts in the matter to go on, in
which case we 'should' be erring on the side of caution instead of
worrying more about the economy innit, duh!

(lol rant done whew!) :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 10:32:22 PM UTC-4, slider wrote:

### - made + publicly posted this short vid/slide(r)show on fb today re
the effects this virus thing is starting to have on the peeps here...

https://www.facebook.com/100007907715384/videos/2599114417028790/

it's already collected 85 views through being shared...

and only remains to be seen if it goes viral or not? (no puns intended heh)

;)

Pretty cool.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A multi-post

Some very informative chart work.
It speaks to Slides rant about not deploying "social distancing"
as the virus tries to accelerate through a population and achieve
the exponential growth rates of doubling infections every 2-4 days.
Social distancing is the most profound barrier to stop the virus
when it is in "firestorm" mode and trying to suck every last
persons set of lungs in as a host.

I'll add to this post by highlighting the 3-4 charts that tell the tight stories.

Main Page

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/covid-19-exponential-threat-why-global-politicians-business-leaders-must-act-now

Chart - 04
As soon as Hubei goes into lock down the doubling rate is broken.
Proves the argument for social distancing as primary containment method. https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1_r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA_0.png?itok=WQGJ-YF7


There are good historical charts on Spanish Flu in USA.
Philadelphia didn't lock down and suffered catastrophe.
other cities locked down and lowered their death rate by multiples of 10-100%

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

### - update here overnight:

The number of people who have tested positive for the coronavirus in the
UK has soared to a total of 1,140, with the death toll almost doubling overnight to 21 .

The new figures were a stark jump from Friday's total, when it was
announced that 798 people had contracted the virus and 11 had died.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-live-latest-covid19-cases-a4387281.html

It comes amid plans to ban mass gatherings in the UK, as the Government
looks to implement beefed-up powers in the fight against the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the UK’s approach to developing "herd immunity" against
Covid-19 was called into question by the World Health Organisation (WHO),
who said the current situation requires "action".

Labour's outgoing leader Jeremy Corbyn has released a statement about the coronavirus.
In it, he says: "Instead of canvassing and campaigning, I would like
Labour members to get involved in supporting vulnerable people in our communities – ensuring this is done safely and on the basis of public
health advice."

He adds: "I fully understand the growing public concern around the virus
and the number of cases, and legitimate questions are being asked about
why the UK government's advice differs from that of neighbouring countries.

"Labour has supported a science-led approach, while recognising that
leaves room for more than one possible response. So we are asking the government to publish its scientific modelling and explain transparently
the conclusions it has drawn. We believe it is vital that the government maintains public confidence."

### - they're literally gambling with people's lives here in the uk now as
the death toll doubles overnight, the 'future of the herd' being put
before that of the individual safety of the vulnerable today, sheesh...

meanwhile, 'three' conservative mp's here have now tested positive for the virus (gud!) although their rather cavalier attitude towards just letting people die from a lack of expensive medical intervention (i.e., in order
to future-proof 'the herd' duh) obviously wont apply to them and so are
likely to survive while possibly 1000's of the less privileged in the population are, apparently, gonna be left to just rot on hospital
trolleys...

a perhaps better-case scenario being if maybe half of the current
government here then falls-ill/dies from it in rapid succession and an emergency government put together comprised of obviously more caring
left-wing types from across all parties? (we should be so lucky huh, riiiight... and because they'd likely bring in the army before ever
letting something sane like that happen!)

the public made a 'huge' mistake putting these bastards back into power
here, and now they're likely to experience the direct result of that
ignorance in public deaths + maybe even live long enough to rue the day
they ever returned these fuckers to power...

(singing...) whoopee, we're all gonna die!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXspsfoPX50

"gimmie an 'F', gimmie a 'U' (etc etc) what does that spell, WHAT does
that spell?"

'shit-storm' is what that spells haha :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Wed, 11 Mar 2020 08:00:14 -0700 (PDT), luckyrat
<allreadydun@gmail.com> wrote:

No other lifetime. This was your life pal. Hope ya didn't waste
it...

as if you could buy a clue.
how does it feel to be stupid and full of hate?

Like the sort of pure burning hatred you showed publicly against Dave
while he was in his terminal phase here? Invoking private stuff about
his wife? Boasting about your daughter's ready access to sidearms?

You're full of shit mate. You show your hypocrisy like a mad woman
shits on the walls - lurid, glaring and shamelessly.

Say hello to your wife, the poor thing needs comfort living with a
drunken slug like you.

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 09:27:44 -0000, slider <slider@atashram.com>
wrote:

No other lifetime. This was your life pal. Hope ya didn't waste
it...

as if you could buy a clue.
how does it feel to be stupid and full of hate?

### - pay no attention/lol why bother? in truth he's prolly just some fat >fuckin' 25-stone couch-potatoe living on its own with a severe mental >disability and not a bean to his name all along, literally the 'opposite'
of everything he's ever claimed + boasted to be! (he protesteth & boasteth >far too much ya know?) and is obviously a bitter + twisted asshole to boot >without even a modicum of social nor moral conscience to its name, quite >possibly even a deeply disturbed + deranged psychopath with the mind of a >child!

Lol. Run every day to the lake and back, about 4km. Muscled and
healthy and eating an Italian wife's med meals every day. Got family
to hopefully care for us if we fall to this virus.

And, yes, financially independent (so far, who knows what shape the
world will be in post-COVID?)

What have you got Brian? You boasted about having marijuana on tap
yet when Dave and I both posted to an image hosting site pics of our
stashes with handwritten notes to YOU to prove veracity, you couldn't.
And you didn't.

You boasted about having a proven IQ of over 160. For a person who
doesn't take drugs (who's gonna sell a sap like YOU drugs?), you were
clearly delusional or just such a pathological liar that you couldn't
help yourself and too stupid to check the facts.

Lol.

and who, with a bit of luck/karma, prolly wont be around for very much
longer after having now CURSED ITSELF with the coronavirus?? LOL (and it
did it all to itself too hah! perfection!) :)

You're pushing your luck cunt. I'm sure a cut and paste of your
murmurings about women and so on wouldn't look too good on twitter.

and, who ultimately, was just another 'parasite' on the neck of humanity >draggin' it all down by being ALL of the things he's ever accused everyone >ELSE of being! (totally hates itself, see?)

Fuck I've clearly cut you to the quick. I can imagine that pommy
deadshit slow and soft voice of yours raging against me in that little
flat of yours. It fills me with laughter.

Lol.

iow: was just another insane, no-hoper, nutjob :)))

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 07:05:13 -0000, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:

### - denmark has gone into lockdown mode early even though they don't
have any reported infections there yet, so should be interesting to see
what happens there as a model for what might 'not'
have happened elsewhere if everywhere else had locked down early too?

advice being given here today of anyone over 60 taking extra care not to
get this thing at all being the best idea, to preferably stay home + limit >contact with anyone else, although how such peeps are exactly gonna manage >that for months on end is less clear, but the advice now is to avoid
getting it altogether if you're aged 60 or over...

Wrong again. If you're over that age, then it's assumed you already
have some underlying health conditions. However, if (like me), you
are over that age but are quite ahead of the health normal
distribution for that demographic, you do not fall within the warning parentheses.

You are always wrong. And a fucking dead set liar and hypocrite to
boot. A bad and nasty bit of work which softshoes your way into
online lives but NEVER in real life because normal people wouldn't
tolerate you for a second.

Fuck off with your bullshit.

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 16:53:25 -0700 (PDT), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

Studying the virus on surfaces. Three day survival on metal and plastic.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615348/heres-how-long-the-coronavirus-can-stay-in-the-air-and-on-packages/?utm_source=whatfinger

[] Article

<snipped without malice>

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/flu-watchdog-spots-more-with-fever-and-cough-but-it-s-not-flu

Updated to 15 March on the page, not 14 March.

There is a major lack of testkits in the US and most of the world.
This virus particle is everywhere now.
Unfortunately.


We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark;
the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.

Plato

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Sat, 14 Mar 2020 02:31:47 -0000, slider <slider@atashram.com>
wrote:

### - made + publicly posted this short vid/slide(r)show on fb today re
the effects this virus thing is starting to have on the peeps here...

https://www.facebook.com/100007907715384/videos/2599114417028790/

it's already collected 85 views through being shared...

and only remains to be seen if it goes viral or not? (no puns intended heh)

No audio. Problem Brian?

BTW, if you're harvesting IPs in order to determine provenance of such
as I who visited in awe (lol), I only post through two consecutive
VPNs - one paid, the other in my Opera browser.

I wanna hear that voice again Brian. Don't be shy.

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Wed, 11 Mar 2020 19:30:39 -0700 (PDT), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

A thread for well written covid-19 articles

Which is fine, but this thing is changing so fast that even something
only one or two days out of date is completely useless.

After you posted this, the entire NATION of Italy was locked down.
There's nothing forecasting that below.

I use this map to track the spread. >https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

According to my sister we had incidents of panic shopping similar
to Australia... tissue paper of all things was wiped out.

Glad I stocked up early.
Although three face towels and a sink full of antibacterial dish soap >followed by a bleach rinse and air dry could turn 10 face towels into
a permanent cycle of hygiene. No different than changing a baby using
extra cotton diapers as wipers. Panic is not good strategy.

We've spent over $1k in the last week or so filling the pantry and one
of our spare rooms here. Mainly tinned food, rice, pasta and so on
and much more. Freezer is stuffed full and it's a big boy over 550
litres.

Gonna investigate a decent generator next week with a good sinewave so
I can run fridge, freezer and PCs without fear of blowing things up.

Our supermarket shelves are emptying out due to the standard JIT
logistics algorithms used across the board which will change soon one
hopes. However, I saw no circumstances of panic at all, just hurried
shopping for large quantities. No panic, I disagree with that. It's
not WW3.

[]

March 4, 2020 3:05PM
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
By Alan Reynolds
https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

[]


“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street Journal

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Sat, 14 Mar 2020 18:36:52 -0000, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:

### - update here overnight:

The number of people who have tested positive for the coronavirus in the
UK has soared to a total of 1,140, with the death toll almost doubling >overnight to 21 .

The new figures were a stark jump from Friday's total, when it was
announced that 798 people had contracted the virus and 11 had died.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-live-latest-covid19-cases-a4387281.html

It comes amid plans to ban mass gatherings in the UK, as the Government
looks to implement beefed-up powers in the fight against the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the UK’s approach to developing "herd immunity" against
Covid-19 was called into question by the World Health Organisation (WHO),
who said the current situation requires "action".

Labour's outgoing leader Jeremy Corbyn has released a statement about the >coronavirus.
In it, he says: "Instead of canvassing and campaigning, I would like
Labour members to get involved in supporting vulnerable people in our >communities – ensuring this is done safely and on the basis of public >health advice."

He adds: "I fully understand the growing public concern around the virus
and the number of cases, and legitimate questions are being asked about
why the UK government's advice differs from that of neighbouring countries.

"Labour has supported a science-led approach, while recognising that
leaves room for more than one possible response. So we are asking the >government to publish its scientific modelling and explain transparently
the conclusions it has drawn. We believe it is vital that the government >maintains public confidence."

### - they're literally gambling with people's lives here in the uk now as >the death toll doubles overnight, the 'future of the herd' being put
before that of the individual safety of the vulnerable today, sheesh...

meanwhile, 'three' conservative mp's here have now tested positive for the >virus (gud!) although their rather cavalier attitude towards just letting >people die from a lack of expensive medical intervention (i.e., in order
to future-proof 'the herd' duh) obviously wont apply to them and so are >likely to survive while possibly 1000's of the less privileged in the >population are, apparently, gonna be left to just rot on hospital
trolleys...

a perhaps better-case scenario being if maybe half of the current
government here then falls-ill/dies from it in rapid succession and an >emergency government put together comprised of obviously more caring >left-wing types from across all parties? (we should be so lucky huh, >riiiight... and because they'd likely bring in the army before ever
letting something sane like that happen!)

the public made a 'huge' mistake putting these bastards back into power
here, and now they're likely to experience the direct result of that >ignorance in public deaths + maybe even live long enough to rue the day
they ever returned these fuckers to power...

(singing...) whoopee, we're all gonna die!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXspsfoPX50

"gimmie an 'F', gimmie a 'U' (etc etc) what does that spell, WHAT does
that spell?"

'shit-storm' is what that spells haha :)

Takes a prick like you to laugh at people's misfortune. Try doing
that outside, you'll lose a few teeth (if you have any left, which I
doubt).

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@atashram.com

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate
of 3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have
been the perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became
infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

The Diamond Princess & South Korea data sets seem to match.

A second data set ( South Korea) is now supporting the above
death rate calculation of 3 deaths per 2000 infections as 0.165
from the Diamond Princess data

https://www.facebook.com/tommy.megremis/posts/3106285006071443

Is The Virus Getting Weaker?

Tommy Megremis
17 hrs �

I have a supposition which I believe may explain why we really aren't
seeing the rapid increase in COVID-19 here in the US. Look at the graph
by our own CDC as of March 12. Although there is incomplete data by our
lack of testing, it suggests that new cases are either stabilizing or
going down. What? I thought we were supposed to see a meteoric rise. Now
look at the Hubei China graph.It shows a bell curve lasting 3 months or
so. What makes the total cases go down after a the peak? The answer may
be the overall ability of the virus to infect goes down with time as it becomes less less potent. Otherwise everyone in Hubei would be dead..
Each virion going forward, although still highly transmittable, is now
less potent, and because we are on the backside of the Hubei curve as of middle of March, we are inheriting a less potent virus as it spreads to
the rest us, and to the rest of the world. This seems to be born out by looking at WHO daily numbers of new cases each day. In many areas of the world it is dwindling. If my theory is correct, it means we will get far
less cases than the experts are predicting.
South Korea is our best predictor of events because of their high
testing rate.
Indeed the S.Korea press announced decreasing numbers of cases for 3
days straight suggesting that they are on the downslope of their bell
curve having imported an earlier more potent virus. Here are the latest numbers from S. Korea. Number of tests = 261.335, the number of positive tests =25,720, with a total number of active cases as of midnight last
night of 8088. There have been 72 deaths. What does this all mean? This
means that 17,632 infected patients recovered . The death rate currently
for S. Korea if you tested positive therefore is 72/25720 x 100 = 0.28%.
That is 3 per 1000 people who tested positive.
It will be interesting from an academic standpoint to see what happens
here, but I don't believe that we will suffer like the Chinese did. Had
it originated here it may have been a different story. I realize this
goes against everything we are being told right now, but this is my
opinion based on the information in front of me. I am not recommending
to anyone to change any the precautions set out by our CDC and
government agencies.

Addendum this evening.
As I have been thinking more about about this, trying to figure out
where we are on the bell curve, and since we have done little testing
which in my opinion is only informational anyway, I believe the best
metric to decide if we are entering a crisis would be for the CDC to
start following ICU admissions. If there is a sharp uptick with
pneumonia then we can pretty much guess what it is. For all we know we
may be right in the middle of it with the CDC counting 41 deaths. I have
no doubt that the number of cases that are to be reported will go up dramatically because we are committed to testing now. That will not necessarily indicate that things are getting worse, it will probably
show what is already here. Going forward it will be difficult to
interpret any numbers coming from the CDC. The only treatment is
respiratory support so just like the flu, if we see admissions go up we
know it is there.

### - that's actually very hopeful, fingers crossed it's really as low as that...

ditto the genetic weakening factor, which 'might' even be down to
something to do with the host having a corresponding modifying effect upon
any intruder before passing it on; it affects us and we affect it in
return seeming to make some kinda intuitive sense as one thing naturally
adapts to another in many + sometimes surprising ways when brought/forced together like that, and as both organisms then try to survive...

on another note: how come 'Tamiflu' (the antiviral agent) isn't being considered this time?

everyone went mad to get that for (i think) sars wasn't it that time?

but which wasn't then required when the whole thing just stopped...

and which is now maybe still sitting around unused in many people's
medicine cabinets

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate of

3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have been the

perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

The Diamond Princess & South Korea data sets seem to match.

A second data set ( South Korea) is now supporting the above
death rate calculation of 3 deaths per 2000 infections as 0.165
from the Diamond Princess data


https://www.facebook.com/tommy.megremis/posts/3106285006071443

Is The Virus Getting Weaker?

Tommy Megremis
17 hrs ·

I have a supposition which I believe may explain why we really aren't seeing the rapid increase in COVID-19 here in the US. Look at the graph by our own CDC
as of March 12. Although there is incomplete data by our lack of testing, it suggests that new
cases are either stabilizing or going down. What? I thought we were supposed to
see a meteoric rise. Now look at the Hubei China graph.It shows a bell curve lasting 3 months or so. What makes the total cases go down after a the peak? The answer may be
the overall ability of the virus to infect goes down with time as it becomes less less potent. Otherwise everyone in Hubei would be dead.. Each virion going
forward, although still highly transmittable, is now less potent, and because we are on the
backside of the Hubei curve as of middle of March, we are inheriting a less potent virus as it spreads to the rest us, and to the rest of the world. This seems to be born out by looking at WHO daily numbers of new cases each day. In many areas of the
world it is dwindling. If my theory is correct, it means we will get far less cases than the experts are predicting.
South Korea is our best predictor of events because of their high testing rate. Indeed the S.Korea press announced decreasing numbers of cases for 3 days straight suggesting that they are on the downslope of their bell curve having imported an earlier more potent virus. Here are the latest numbers from S. Korea. Number of tests =
261.335, the number of positive tests =25,720, with a total number of active cases as of midnight last night of 8088. There have been 72 deaths. What does this all mean? This means that 17,632 infected patients recovered . The death rate currently for S.
Korea if you tested positive therefore is 72/25720 x 100 = 0.28%. That is 3 per
1000 people who tested positive.
It will be interesting from an academic standpoint to see what happens here, but I don't believe that we will suffer like the Chinese did. Had it originated
here it may have been a different story. I realize this goes against everything
we are being told
right now, but this is my opinion based on the information in front of me. I am
not recommending to anyone to change any the precautions set out by our CDC and
government agencies.

Addendum this evening.
As I have been thinking more about about this, trying to figure out where we are on the bell curve, and since we have done little testing which in my opinion is only informational anyway, I believe the best metric to decide if we
are entering a crisis
would be for the CDC to start following ICU admissions. If there is a sharp uptick with pneumonia then we can pretty much guess what it is. For all we know
we may be right in the middle of it with the CDC counting 41 deaths. I have no doubt that the
number of cases that are to be reported will go up dramatically because we are committed to testing now. That will not necessarily indicate that things are getting worse, it will probably show what is already here. Going forward it will be difficult to
interpret any numbers coming from the CDC. The only treatment is respiratory support so just like the flu, if we see admissions go up we know it is there.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A History Of Pandemics - Zoomable Chart https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg?itok=OAPNvJcO

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Sun, 15 Mar 2020 12:34:53 -0000, slider <slider@atashram.com>
wrote:

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate
of 3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have
been the perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became
infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

The Diamond Princess & South Korea data sets seem to match.

A second data set ( South Korea) is now supporting the above
death rate calculation of 3 deaths per 2000 infections as 0.165
from the Diamond Princess data


https://www.facebook.com/tommy.megremis/posts/3106285006071443

Is The Virus Getting Weaker?

Tommy Megremis
17 hrs ·

I have a supposition which I believe may explain why we really aren't
seeing the rapid increase in COVID-19 here in the US. Look at the graph
by our own CDC as of March 12. Although there is incomplete data by our
lack of testing, it suggests that new cases are either stabilizing or
going down. What? I thought we were supposed to see a meteoric rise. Now
look at the Hubei China graph.It shows a bell curve lasting 3 months or
so. What makes the total cases go down after a the peak? The answer may
be the overall ability of the virus to infect goes down with time as it
becomes less less potent. Otherwise everyone in Hubei would be dead..
Each virion going forward, although still highly transmittable, is now
less potent, and because we are on the backside of the Hubei curve as of
middle of March, we are inheriting a less potent virus as it spreads to
the rest us, and to the rest of the world. This seems to be born out by
looking at WHO daily numbers of new cases each day. In many areas of the
world it is dwindling. If my theory is correct, it means we will get far
less cases than the experts are predicting.
South Korea is our best predictor of events because of their high
testing rate.
Indeed the S.Korea press announced decreasing numbers of cases for 3
days straight suggesting that they are on the downslope of their bell
curve having imported an earlier more potent virus. Here are the latest
numbers from S. Korea. Number of tests = 261.335, the number of positive
tests =25,720, with a total number of active cases as of midnight last
night of 8088. There have been 72 deaths. What does this all mean? This
means that 17,632 infected patients recovered . The death rate currently
for S. Korea if you tested positive therefore is 72/25720 x 100 = 0.28%.
That is 3 per 1000 people who tested positive.
It will be interesting from an academic standpoint to see what happens
here, but I don't believe that we will suffer like the Chinese did. Had
it originated here it may have been a different story. I realize this
goes against everything we are being told right now, but this is my
opinion based on the information in front of me. I am not recommending
to anyone to change any the precautions set out by our CDC and
government agencies.

Addendum this evening.
As I have been thinking more about about this, trying to figure out
where we are on the bell curve, and since we have done little testing
which in my opinion is only informational anyway, I believe the best
metric to decide if we are entering a crisis would be for the CDC to
start following ICU admissions. If there is a sharp uptick with
pneumonia then we can pretty much guess what it is. For all we know we
may be right in the middle of it with the CDC counting 41 deaths. I have
no doubt that the number of cases that are to be reported will go up
dramatically because we are committed to testing now. That will not
necessarily indicate that things are getting worse, it will probably
show what is already here. Going forward it will be difficult to
interpret any numbers coming from the CDC. The only treatment is
respiratory support so just like the flu, if we see admissions go up we
know it is there.

### - that's actually very hopeful, fingers crossed it's really as low as >that...

ditto the genetic weakening factor, which 'might' even be down to
something to do with the host having a corresponding modifying effect upon >any intruder before passing it on; it affects us and we affect it in
return seeming to make some kinda intuitive sense as one thing naturally >adapts to another in many + sometimes surprising ways when brought/forced >together like that, and as both organisms then try to survive...

on another note: how come 'Tamiflu' (the antiviral agent) isn't being >considered this time?

everyone went mad to get that for (i think) sars wasn't it that time?

but which wasn't then required when the whole thing just stopped...

and which is now maybe still sitting around unused in many people's
medicine cabinets

Posting this days after the OP.

Like the one we had 100 years ago, this is an unknown ball thrown
to/at us by MN ("Mother Nature").

We should have prepared. We had a 100 years to do so. But we didn't
and now we pay.

It's as simple as that, you fucking moron.



We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark;
the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.

Plato

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Sun, 15 Mar 2020 20:08:04 -0700 (PDT), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

A History Of Pandemics - Zoomable Chart >https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg?itok=OAPNvJcO

Fuck history sport. We're living through history RIGHT NOW!!!



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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

A History Of Pandemics - Zoomable Chart >https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg?itok=OAPNvJcO

Fuck history sport. We're living through history RIGHT NOW!!!

Yeah. How are you ramping up for testing and patient overload there?

This article tells a sad story of how broken the US bureaucracy is.

I'd like to get tested but no luck.

If I have had it and recovered donating plasma with antibodies
is an essential contribution I coul make.

It's been six weeks since I went to the hospital and nine weeks sick.
Hard to say, but I am on the mend nonetheless.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

Yeah. How are you ramping up for testing and patient overload there?

### - here's how the aussies are dealin' with it lol :)))

https://www.smh.com.au/national/you-can-t-stop-people-from-living-bondi-beachgoers-defiant-as-nsw-government-cracks-down-20200321-p54cia.html

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate

Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT

See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients

On this page:

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan,
0.7% other areas)
Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1%
Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
Comparison with other viruses
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of
March 3

In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]

Initial estimate was 2%

Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a
mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29
[1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that
this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the
time it was said that:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people
have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right
now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those
who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what
the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to
the World Health Organization [1][2].


### - there's much more to this article that follows which imho is well
worth looking at...

various formulas being applied here trying to ascertain the correct
figures involved, one rather disturbing bit of info near the bottom of
this page re sars being estimated via similar formulas to be only a third
of what it 'actually' turned out to be? (yak!)

e.g.,

"Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of
4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%."

so this could be happening again!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

My best guess follows the Diamond Princess and South Korea rate of 0.165
For every 2000 infections 3 people die.

That's not to say it is not a serious illness to get.
I believe I had it already and it tops my list as my worst virus.
My list:

1970-age 11 (Three weeks sick & three more to recover)
1997-age 28 (same as above)
2009-age 49 ( H1N1 Swine flu / one nights hospital - 14 days total)
2015-age 55 (Three weeks sick & three more to recover)
2020-age 60 (Four weeks sick & four to recover 1/2 day hospital Xrays )

It's not the virus that kills people it's the immune systems over reaction.
I take prednisone which mutes and squelches my immune system so does my
mom, although she stayed in hospital two days, and she is 89 years old.

It's a potent virus but not as lethal as China or WHO claims.

If you'll notice USA numbers are doubling 5-10-20-50 thousand cases
only because testing became "slightly" more available. The virus has
been here since early January, but most people get much less symptoms
than me or my mom. So USA numbers look ominous but that's because
testing started en masse.

The reliable symptoms everyone gets is dry cough and shortness of breath.
All the other symptoms depend on the person who gets it. I was getting
over the usual annual flu when I got it.

It's something to avoid because it can own you for 6-8 weeks.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Sat, 21 Mar 2020 04:41:22 -0000, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:

Yeah. How are you ramping up for testing and patient overload there?

### - here's how the aussies are dealin' with it lol :)))

https://www.smh.com.au/national/you-can-t-stop-people-from-living-bondi-beachgoers-defiant-as-nsw-government-cracks-down-20200321-p54cia.html

Posting here @ 1812 hrs Thursday 26 March, it seems that your country
is just a little little bit worse for wear than we are. The state I'm
in (Western Australia) has problems with offshore German fucking
cruise ships (sink the infested cunts) but only 2 deaths to date.

However you cut it, you stupid fuck, this is the end of the present
order and the incoming advent of the new order. You are far too soft
to survive.



--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 18:02:53 -0700 (PDT), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

A History Of Pandemics - Zoomable Chart
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg?itok=OAPNvJcO

Fuck history sport. We're living through history RIGHT NOW!!!

Yeah. How are you ramping up for testing and patient overload there?

This article tells a sad story of how broken the US bureaucracy is.

I'd like to get tested but no luck.

If I have had it and recovered donating plasma with antibodies
is an essential contribution I coul make.

It's been six weeks since I went to the hospital and nine weeks sick.
Hard to say, but I am on the mend nonetheless.

That's just you. There's another 7 billion plus who are mortally
scared of what is happening to our world.

I'm a prepper son. On the lookout for a good gen at the moment,
thinking Yamaha 3KV in the frame, EF2800i - inverter, more than enough
to run my 2 freezers and one fridge, laptop, PC (nice sine curve) -
11litre tank, runs on petrol and framed. Gonna buy one tomorrow
except there's been a fucking RUN on gensets...

New world order just around the corner...

--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: thangolossus@gmail.com

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 06:56:42 -0700 (PDT), LowRider44M
<intraphase@gmail.com> wrote:

My best guess follows the Diamond Princess and South Korea rate of 0.165
For every 2000 infections 3 people die.

That's not to say it is not a serious illness to get.
I believe I had it already and it tops my list as my worst virus.
My list:

1970-age 11 (Three weeks sick & three more to recover)
1997-age 28 (same as above)
2009-age 49 ( H1N1 Swine flu / one nights hospital - 14 days total) >2015-age 55 (Three weeks sick & three more to recover)
2020-age 60 (Four weeks sick & four to recover 1/2 day hospital Xrays )

It's not the virus that kills people it's the immune systems over reaction.
I take prednisone which mutes and squelches my immune system so does my
mom, although she stayed in hospital two days, and she is 89 years old.

It's a potent virus but not as lethal as China or WHO claims.

If you'll notice USA numbers are doubling 5-10-20-50 thousand cases
only because testing became "slightly" more available. The virus has
been here since early January, but most people get much less symptoms
than me or my mom. So USA numbers look ominous but that's because
testing started en masse.

The reliable symptoms everyone gets is dry cough and shortness of breath.
All the other symptoms depend on the person who gets it. I was getting
over the usual annual flu when I got it.

It's something to avoid because it can own you for 6-8 weeks.

You're underestimating (sorry, you're a yank, it's
"misunderestimating" lol) the situation. This is a straight up
fucking catastrophe, along the lines of asteroid strike, gamma ray
strike, much worse than a solar flare....

I'm surprised at your lack of perspective on this. Entire countries
have shut down and entire industries are point blank dead in the
water. It's fucking BIG TIME!!

And, sorry Brian Aherne - Charles is infected now and it's possible
the Mother has it too. Both over 60 years old...


--
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:39:11 AM UTC-4, slider wrote:

### - as an added note to the russian research; they're only NOW just starting trials here of the hydroxichloraquine mr-t was on about?? they apparently tried it immediately on a select group of people literally
gasping their last in respirators with seemingly not much noticeable
effect, and have now moved their trials onto the above-50 year olds with serious complications group...

what annoys me here is how fucking SLOW they're moving forward with this here?? a slowness that can literally be measured in lives!

these are NOT dangerous untested drugs! hydroxichloraquine having been
around for the last 65 years for christsakes?? yet the 'experts' cannot sanction making it more generally available without first conducting
strict + prolonged medical testing!? a standard protocol which is fine in peacetime, only this isn't peacetime is it + any side-effects are already well known!

that a just as-valuable and revealing test could be being conducted upon 'volunteers' of all age group having/showing any kind of symptoms fairly safely? the younger & fitter you are being the less you're likely to even experience any side-effects from it!

a protocol that would defo save lives + an awful lot of discomfort if it turns out to work at all + which is relatively harmless if it doesn't!

there IS already SOME evidence of it having an effect! so ok, granted
that's not under ideal conditions of strict double-blind + prolonged
testing over many years (it's already been through 'those' tests for the
last 65 years!) but now, in a crisis, is not the time to start doing a definitive study but a perhaps more general one? and it would produce lots
of interesting data!

2 groups of people showing symptoms: those who'd like to try it and those
who don't...

Bullseye here ^^^^

records being kept for age grouping, gender, symptom severity & recovery
to be all analysed & compared later in an 'on-going' live trial, the
graphs from either group surely revealing any trends 'as' they emerge over time?

that these are not 'experimental' drugs! they're only experimental in
using them against this particular disease!

imho we're being far too SLOW with this! - that even if it only 'reduces' symptoms some, that still means less ventilators etc might be needed!

i mean, IF, in 6 months time, it turns that it DOES have some measurable effect, then just how many lives might have been SAVED if they'd started offering it straight away instead of waiting until then??

signed consent is the legal key here but is no good if it's not even
offered!

Same here in USA, the pro quinine and anti quinine forces.
Hard to remember and face, but 2-5% population are sociopaths or psychopaths.

I bet Boris is receiving Hydroquinoline and Zythromycin

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

Russia's Federal Biomedical Agency on Saturday said it has developed a
drug for the treatment of COVID-19.

The agency said its drug was based on mefloquine, which is used to prevent
or treat malaria.

https://www.dailysabah.com/life/health/russia-says-it-developed-covid-19-treatment-based-on-anti-malaria-drug

The drug will allegedly provide effective treatment for COVID-19 patients
with varying severity.

According to the agency's statement, the drug prevents virus replication
in cells and as a result, stops the inflammatory process caused by the
virus.

Veronika Skvortsova, the agency’s head, said Mefloquine has to be combined with antibiotics for the maximum effect, allowing an increase in the concentration of antiviral agents in blood plasma and lungs.

"This will ensure effective treatment of patients with various degrees of coronavirus infection," Skvortsova said.

The agency said it was developing an effective and safe scheme for the prevention of coronavirus on the basis of mefloquine.

The treatment was developed taking Chinese and French experience into
account, it added.

COVID-19 treatment, for now, focuses on relieving symptoms such as
breathing assistance.

Companies around the world are racing to develop vaccines. A few have
launched early safety testing in humans, but experts say it could take a
year or more to develop and test a vaccine.

### - another potentially promising treatment based on similar anti-malarial-type drugs? (they all end in 'quine')

mefloquine (branded as: Lariam) being a variation synthesised again from quina-quina (Cinchona), one of several newer 'synthetic' substances
produced to continue treating malaria in the face of a rising resistance
by the malaria parasite to such drugs...

i.e.,

"The artificial synthesis of quinine in 1944, an increase in resistant
forms of malaria, and the emergence of alternate therapies eventually
ended large-scale economic interest in cinchona cultivation, but academic interest continues, as many cinchona alkaloids show promise in treating falciparum malaria, which has evolved resistance to synthetic drugs.
Cinchona plants continue to be revered for their historical legacy; the national tree of Peru is in the genus Cinchona." (wikipedia)

the original (and therefore natural) substance being discovered in that quina-quina tree bark

unfortunately, many of these synthetic drugs have been subsequently discontinued (out of stock) due to an increasing resistance to them, so 'Lariam' may be hard, if not impossible, to find until they start making
more of it...

cinchona bark is still available on ebay though, although, when i checked,
the dude i got some from here has now increased the price of it by just
over 40%?? (the greedy profiteering fucker!)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

### - as an added note to the russian research; they're only NOW just
starting trials here of the hydroxichloraquine mr-t was on about?? they apparently tried it immediately on a select group of people literally
gasping their last in respirators with seemingly not much noticeable
effect, and have now moved their trials onto the above-50 year olds with serious complications group...

what annoys me here is how fucking SLOW they're moving forward with this
here?? a slowness that can literally be measured in lives!

these are NOT dangerous untested drugs! hydroxichloraquine having been
around for the last 65 years for christsakes?? yet the 'experts' cannot sanction making it more generally available without first conducting
strict + prolonged medical testing!? a standard protocol which is fine in peacetime, only this isn't peacetime is it + any side-effects are already
well known!

that a just as-valuable and revealing test could be being conducted upon 'volunteers' of all age group having/showing any kind of symptoms fairly safely? the younger & fitter you are being the less you're likely to even experience any side-effects from it!

a protocol that would defo save lives + an awful lot of discomfort if it
turns out to work at all + which is relatively harmless if it doesn't!

there IS already SOME evidence of it having an effect! so ok, granted
that's not under ideal conditions of strict double-blind + prolonged
testing over many years (it's already been through 'those' tests for the
last 65 years!) but now, in a crisis, is not the time to start doing a definitive study but a perhaps more general one? and it would produce lots
of interesting data!

2 groups of people showing symptoms: those who'd like to try it and those
who don't...

records being kept for age grouping, gender, symptom severity & recovery
to be all analysed & compared later in an 'on-going' live trial, the
graphs from either group surely revealing any trends 'as' they emerge over time?

that these are not 'experimental' drugs! they're only experimental in
using them against this particular disease!

imho we're being far too SLOW with this! - that even if it only 'reduces' symptoms some, that still means less ventilators etc might be needed!

i mean, IF, in 6 months time, it turns that it DOES have some measurable effect, then just how many lives might have been SAVED if they'd started offering it straight away instead of waiting until then??

signed consent is the legal key here but is no good if it's not even
offered!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: slider@anashram.com

there IS already SOME evidence of it having an effect! so ok, granted
that's not under ideal conditions of strict double-blind + prolonged
testing over many years (it's already been through 'those' tests for the
last 65 years!) but now, in a crisis, is not the time to start doing a
definitive study but a perhaps more general one? and it would produce
lots
of interesting data!

2 groups of people showing symptoms: those who'd like to try it and
those
who don't...

Bullseye here ^^^^

### - informed consent, that's all it takes...

i mean, IF, in 6 months time, it turns that it DOES have some measurable
effect, then just how many lives might have been SAVED if they'd started
offering it straight away instead of waiting until then??

signed consent is the legal key here but is no good if it's not even
offered!

Same here in USA, the pro quinine and anti quinine forces.
Hard to remember and face, but 2-5% population are sociopaths or
psychopaths.

I bet Boris is receiving Hydroquinoline and Zythromycin

### - you echo my thoughts exactly here, no question about it, he's
getting the best of all those + antibiotics, oxygen, food, doctors,
private nurses and all the rest of it, plus no laying in a corridor on the hospital floor for him, oh no! (like that person he stepped over that time
and then snatched the photographers camera away who filmed him doing so? riiiight... that's literally come back to bite him now!)

well, and while he's laying there feeling like crap, mayhap he'll remember
the vast majority of folks who are ALL sooo much worse off than he and
that were suffering horribly long 'before' all this virus business even started...

i hope so anyway + also then hope he survives in order to then change
things for all those peeps for the better instead of merely stepping-over 'lesser' people while feathering the nests of the wealthy at the express expense of them...

we'll see wont we ;)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

Hit send before paste.

https://arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-sltrib.s3.amazonaws.com/public/K3DOCCSBPZAZBKPITJ6LNF365A.gif

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 5:25:59 PM UTC-5, LowRider44M wrote:

A thread for well written covid-19 articles

[]

March 4, 2020 3:05PM
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
By Alan Reynolds https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

[]

“Death Toll Hits 9 as Outbreak Spreads,” was the scary Wall Street

Journal headline in print before it was toned down online. COVID-19 deaths at a
nursing home and hospital in Washington state were unrelated to the virus spreading “across the U.S.
” The facts tell us much more about the exceptionally high risks of fatal infection from COVID-19 (or pneumonia or flu) among elderly people living close
together in nursing homes or hospitals, many of them already sick.

The ongoing COPD-19 outbreak in Kirkland Washington at the Life Care nursing

home and Evergreen hospital represents high‐​risk concentrations of vulnerable seniors. Among those who died in Washington, all but two were in their 70s or 80s (the other
two in their 50s) and most had “underlying health conditions.” Evergreen hospital has two more in critical condition, in their 70s and 90s, both with underlying conditions.

What we just learned from Washington was already known from China’s

experience A February 24 article by Katarina Zimmer in The Scientist provides an excellent summary:

“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000

confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre‐​existing illnesses and
the elderly.While less than 1
percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory
disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in
China] proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older
were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”

The Scientist article point about the death rate being “less than 1

percent” among the healthy and also the point about the 2.3% Chinese estimate
being a “an overestimate” because “many mild cases might go undiagnosed” underscore similar
points I made in a March 2 blog. My concern is that misinformation about COVID-19 has fueled excessive fear of the virus by greatly exaggerating the actual death rate per hundred people infected (the infection fatality rate).

I suggested that if we took unreported mild cases into account, the actual

death rate among infected people outside China may be as low as 0.5%. Skeptics greeted death rates of 0.5–1.0% as Panglossian heresy. Yet the rigorous February 10 study I
cited, from Imperial College London, concluded the global infection fatality ratio was about 1.0. My estimate is lower than 1.0 because I exclude China where (I argue) high fatality rates in Wuhan were exaggerated by overcounting institutionalized
elderly with serious infection.

On February 29, Denise Grady, The New York Times’ veteran health and

medicine reporter, independently came to conclusions not unlike those Katarina Zimmer and I did within a few days of each other – namely than fewer than 1% of people infected with
COVID-19 are likely to die from it, and that the odds of death are lower that that for healthy non‐​elderly people. Ms. Grady explained these facts in The New York Times as follows [with emphasis added]:

“Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China, the epicenter of

the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower
rate: 1.4 percent. The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most
experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom‐​free cases that have not been detected. The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal
flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr.
Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention.”

Despite two health science writers and one economist trying to warn people

that widely hyped mortality rates greatly exaggerate the risk (not to mention Drs. Fauci, Lane and Redfield) exaggerated estimates continue to grab the headlines.

On March 4, The New York Times reported, “Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,

the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that… ‘Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid‐​19 cases have died.” “By comparison,
” he added, ” seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

To the newspaper’s credit, The New York Times apparently felt obliged to

caution readers that the WHO’s 3.4 percent death rate is quite implausible, if not wildly inaccurate: “The figure does not include mild cases that do not
require medical
attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower. Still, it was the first time that the
organization had offered a global mortality rate for the disease.”

Ironically, my previous blog quoted Dr. Tedros Adhanom saying, “Most people

will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.”

Because most cases are mild, as he said, and because mild cases are excluded

by definition from “reported cases,” the WHO’s alleged 3.4% mortality rate is nothing more than sensationalist nonsense.


Cool chart showing USA test results for worst infection rates 1 in 200-357

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

USA PROJECTED PEAK = APRIL 14
https://covid19.healthdata.org/


State by state projections using pull down menu.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)

From: intraphase@gmail.com

On Friday, March 6, 2020 at 1:52:37 PM UTC-5, LowRider44M wrote:

The NIH and CDC estimate the CFR to be less than 1%. The WHO estimate of

3.4% does not take into account those who may be asymptomatic.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship (concentrated environment) may have been the

perfect lab for this. Of the 3,700 passengers, 705 became infected and 6 died.

20 % Infection Rate

0.16 % Mortality Rate

6 X 100 / 3700 = 0.16216

My guess was off by a factor of ten - or an order of magnitude.
More exhaustive data collection is positing the mortality rate at 0.6

https://kslnewsradio.com/1922207/coronavirus-death-rate-is-lower-than-previously-reported-study-says-but-its-still-deadlier-than-seasonal-flu/

Still very high. If all 330 Americans got infected that's 2 million.
If the infection rate stays at 30% that's 600,000.

[]

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it’s still deadlier than seasonal flu
Share
By Arman Azad, CNN
March 31, 2020 at 6:10 am
This transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2—also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19 isolated from a patient in the U.S., emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. The research, published
in the medical
journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die. Credit: NIAID-RML

(CNN) — How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed — but it’s still
far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.

When undetected infections aren’t taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.

Early in March, for example, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that “if you just do the math, the math is about 2%.”

But he emphasized that the number could go down, saying that “as a group it’s going to depend completely on what the factor of asymptomatic cases are.”

That’s because death rates typically only consider reported coronavirus cases, which tend to be more severe, and thus brought to the attention of health care workers. Asymptomatic cases — or mild cases — may not always be
counted.

In this study, researchers tried to estimate the true “infection fatality rate.” In other words, out of everybody infected — not just those sick enough to get tested — how many people will die?

To find out, researchers looked at how widespread infections were among people repatriated to their home countries on flights from Wuhan, China.

According to the study, these people received PCR tests — a type of test that
would be able to identify how many of those travelers were shedding the virus, even if they didn’t show symptoms.

Researchers combined that data on “infection prevalence” with public information on reported cases and deaths, estimating the overall death rate to be about two-thirds of 1%.



That number, though, went up in older adults, with approximately 7.8% of those 80 or older estimated to die after infection. And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than 9, with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%.

For age groups younger than 40, the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study. Out of 1,000 young adults infected, then, about 1 or 2 could die, with the youngest people facing the lowest risk.

“There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal,”
said Azra Ghani, a professor at Imperial College London and an author of the study, in a statement.

Researchers looked at other data, too, including tens of thousands of cases inside and outside of mainland China, as well as 3,711 people who were aboard a
coronavirus-stricken cruise ship, the Diamond Princess.

The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it
takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.

The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus,
death came about 18
days after people started showing symptoms.

In an article accompanying the research, Shigui Ruan, a professor of mathematics at the University of Miami, emphasized that estimating the coronavirus death rate “in real time during its epidemic is very challenging.”

But understanding how many people die from a virus, he said, is an important piece of data that can help guide responses from governments and public health authorities.

Ruan, who was not involved with the research, also noted that the coronavirus fatality rate is low for younger people. But he stressed that “it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false,” with coronavirus
remaining far deadlier than the seasonal flu.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)