From: intraphase@gmail.com

October 21, 2019
The Empire Steps Back
by Jim Kavanagh

[] I moved the last paragraph to the top as a statement
[] of the articles core "Argument. It's a left side writer.
[] Good details of the colliding dynamics


"Kid yourself not. No matter what the formal articles of impeachment say, if Donald Trump is removed from office by impeachment, if more than twenty Republican senators vote to convict him, it will not be because of Russiagate or Ukrainegate of Bidengate
or any other ruse issues bleated about constantly in the media, but because he is just too “unpredictable and transactional” to be counted on to pull the trigger when it counts. 100%."


October 21, 2019
The Empire Steps Back
by Jim Kavanagh

What everyone is most upset about with regard to Syria isn’t the bloodshed or
anything having [to] do with human rights. It’s the decline in American control of the Middle East. This is 100% about US imperialism taking a hit.

— Rania Khalek, (@RaniaKhalek) October 14, 2019

A series of Donald Trump’s decisions, culminating in the decision to withdraw
US troops from Syria, has set off a cascade of effects that are dramatically changing the geopolitics of the Middle East and the internal politics of the United States.

Two months ago, I wrote an article opposing the impeachment drive and stating that Donald Trump is not going to be removed from office by impeachment proceedings. I said: “Donald Trump will be removed from office one way: by an
election.”

At that time, in the wake of the fizzling out of the Mueller Report and testimony on Russian “collusion,” the new smoking gun was “obstruction of
justice.” “The evidence is overwhelming,” Jamie Raskin said, echoing more
than 90 of his
Democratic colleagues, “10 different episodes of presidential obstruction of justice.” Walls closing in.

Somehow, even after Mueller’s “very, very painful” testimony, the impeachment drive by the Democrats had intensified to the point that it was de rigueur for every major Democratic presidential candidate, and for anyone calling themselves “
progressive,” to demand impeachment proceedings. Because “obstruction of justice.”

Of course, the Democrats were not going to create an irresistible political tide that would get enough Republican senators to vote to oust Trump with that “obstruction of justice” issue, and they knew it. The chance of that was effectively zero.

The odds on that are now changing significantly. What happened to change the impeachment calculus? That might move enough Republicans?

The answer is nothing that’s in the Ukrainegate smokingburger, which replaced
the obstruction-of-justice smokingburger, which replaced the Russiagate smokingburger. Interpretations of the Zelensky phone call are just that—interpretations. Stipulate
the worst: Trump tried to wheedle some personal political benefit from a foreign leader. Shocked! Shocked! Are we?

Really? Does anybody think that, if we read through the transcripts of every conversation between US presidents and foreign leaders over the last fifty years, we wouldn’t find scores of such transactions? And, uh, Hunter Biden, not to mention the
Clinton campaign and Foundation. The Republicans can bat that phone call away, and they will face no political groundswell among their voters, or even the general public, to take sides in a family feud among different corrupt factions
of a corrupt
political elite.

To say nothing of the most outrageous examples of using foreign leaders to political advantage. Richard Nixon conspired with the leaders of South Vietnam to prolong the Vietnam War, and LBJ knew it. Ronald Reagan conspired with the leaders of Iran to
prolong the confinement of American hostages, and a bipartisan commission covered it up. But they weren’t presidents at the time? Really, that’s an argument for dismissing these cases? What do you think these guys did when they
were presidents? No,
Nancy, now that I’m president I cannot seek a political benefit from a foreign leader! And why were these cases ignored and actively covered up, except because they were considered—even if a little extreme—SOP in US politics?

The success of the Democrats’ impeachment drive depends on one thing: getting
enough Republican senators to vote for conviction. No, nothing in the Trump-Zelensky phone call or anything like it is going to move Republicans to temper their defenses
against the Democratic onslaught, let alone move enough of them in the Senate to vote to remove him from office.

If Republicans do stop defending him against that, it will be because they have
become radically disaffected with him about something else.

That something else is real, though it probably will not be explicitly stated in impeachment charges. It’s the simmering bipartisan concern about Trump that has been brought to a boil by recent series of events and decisions: his unreliability as a
trigger-puller, his aversion to ordering big military attacks. This is certainly a damning fault in the eyes of most Republicans (as well as Democrats), a disqualifying failure or responsibility from the warden of the US
empire. That’s the impeachable
offense that could well get enough Republican votes to convict him.

During the 2016 campaign, Donald Trump expressed his opposition to wasteful foreign interventions clearly and repeatedly enough, and was skewered by the Democrats whenever he did, as they promoted lies and war and lies about war (specifically about
Ukraine, as I noted) for their political benefit.

He also expressed his disdain for the obligatory nod to US sanctimony, when he responded to Joe Scarborough’s complaint about Putin killing people: “I think our country does plenty of killing also,” and when he pushed back on George Stephanopoulos
regarding Ukraine: “The people of Crimea…would rather be with Russia than where they were.”

These kinds of thoughts are anathema to hawkish Republicans. They could only be
ignored because they assumed: 1) he wasn’t going to win, 2) it was empty campaign rhetoric, and 3) as President, he would be boxed in and managed by the
shepherds of the
national-security state. Only one of those assumptions turned out to be entirely false, and it’s the uncertainty about how the other two are now playing out that might undermine his support among Senate Republicans.

In the last few months, Trump has made decisions either to reduce US military presence or explicitly not to take military action that was expected and planned. These were rhetorically and substantively anti-interventionist positions that are anathema to
imperialist Republicans. The most consequent of these in the impeachment context are those regarding Iran, and, relatedly, Syria.

The dangerous fuse of Republican discontent with Trump was lit with Trump’s decision in June to call off the military strike on Iran, after Iran’s downing of a US drone. That event followed attacks on Norwegian and Japanese tankers in the Persian
Gulf that the US government blamed on Iran. A narrative had been established for US politicians and media: Every nasty thing that happens in the Middle East
is to be blamed on Iran. It’s a narrative with a specific target and a specific goal: to
manufacture consent for a military attack on that target—Iran—when a good opportunity was either concocted or presented itself.

Iran’s acknowledged destruction of a valuable US military asset provided that
opportunity. Trump’s decision—on the profound advice of Bolton, Pompeo, et.
al.—to launch an attack on Iran was the inevitable next scene in the script. His decision,
made a few hours later, to cancel the attack was something else again. It was a
decision made “without consulting his vice president, secretary of state or national security adviser,” with “forces… already in motion… more than 10,000 sailors
and airmen….on the move,” and with “only 10 minutes to go.” Per the NYT, that decision “stunned,” ”flabbergasted,” and outraged his closest
advisers and key Republican allies. It was an unprecedented deus ex machina, an
impermissible
interruption that, especially for Republicans, just doesn’t fit in the epic story of American “presidentialness.”

Leftish Trump opponents have not, I think, recognized what an extraordinary important, and praiseworthy decision this was by Trump. Has there been a more positive decision of such consequence made by any president in the last thirty years?

Yes, it was the reversal of a prior, terrible decision of his. And, yes, it’s
subject to reversal again because of his inconsistency and his many other terrible decisions regarding Iran and the region. But on its own, it stopped an
onslaught of immense
destruction. That it was a reversal of something he had set in motion only makes it more extraordinary as a presidential act.

Moreover, Trump was not alone in the process of re-thinking his decision. The Washington Post tells us that, from the get-go, the decision to strike Iran had
“divided his top advisers, with senior Pentagon officials opposing the decision to strike and
national security adviser John Bolton strongly supporting it.” And during those hours of reconsideration, as the NYT reports: “there continued to be pushback from Pentagon civilians and General Dunford.”

In other words, this wasn’t just a matter of peripatetic Trump; it was a matter of an ongoing tension between the fervently Zionist neocons, represented
by the likes of Bolton and Pompeo, and the military realists, as represented by
Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs Dunford. Let’s not—as hawkish Republicans and Democrats certainly will try to—hide that tension in the tale of Trump’s personal inconsistency.

That tension defines something that Trump and every American president is inconsistent about. In the US context, that Trump changed his mind in the direction he did at the last minute is, again, extraordinary—one might even say “courageous.”

Sure, better not to have ordered the attack in the first place, but, in such circumstances, I’ll take reconsideration and second thoughts to sticking to one’s guns.

What we see here is that, for all his bluster, Trump knows when to be scared of
a fight that will certainly hurt and not benefit the US, unlike the missionary (whether Zionist, Christian, or secular “humanitarian”) interventionists—including past
presidents Obama and Bush, the man “progressive” impeachers would have president, Mike Pence, and every one of the present Democratic contenders, with
the possible exception of Sanders or Gabbard. Certainly, in the same circumstances (having decided
for the neocons, still getting pushback from the military), none of those Democrats, with the noted exceptions, would have made the re-consideration Trump did, and we would be at war with Iran now.

Anti-Trump lefties may not want to recognize how radical Trump’s decision to call off the Iran strike was, but senior Republicans sure do.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a not unimportant player in the unfolding impeachment drama, said Trump’s decision to cancel the Iran strike “was clearly seen by
the Iranian regime as a sign of weakness.” To which Trump responded, in tones
matching Obama’s
best anti-stupid-interventionist campaign rhetoric: “No Lindsey, it was a sign of strength that some people just don’t understand!” Republicans were likening Trump’s refusal to strike Iran over the drone downing to Obama not striking Syria over
the chemical weapons “red line” pretext. Having Republicans and his own advisors see him as “all too reminiscent … of Mr. Obama” is not a look that will help Trump among imperialist Republican senators.

Indeed, that remark of Graham’s was made after Trump’s second dramatic failure to respond with military action—this time to the September 14th Houthi attack on Saudi oilfields, which was framed by neocon Pompeo as an “act of war” by Iran and,
implicitly, against the United States. Even the liberal NYT accepted the framing that Trump “let down his Arab partners by failing to respond more forcefully to Iranian aggressions.” quoting one Gulf political scientist that: “Trump, in his
response to Iran, is even worse than Obama.”

What’s important for the purposes of impeachment possibility, of course, is whether Trump’s Republicans allies see it that way. And they do. Here’s Graham again: “This is literally an act of war and the goal should be to restore deterrence
against Iranian aggression which has clearly been lost.” There it is: Trump “lost” deterrence against, is “losing” the Middle East to, Iran.

Former C.I.A. official Reuel Marc Gerecht echoes and amplifies the line to NYT reporters at the ultra-neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies: “The president’s repeated failure to militarily respond to Iranian actions has been a serious mistake.�
��

It was a week after this putative “act of war” by Iran and non-military response by Trump, on September 23rd, that a group of “moderate” freshmen Democratic congresswomen who had “formed a bond over their national security background,” joined
by two freshmen male colleagues, also military veterans, wrote a Washington Post (WaPo) op-ed that, as CNN puts it: “changed the dynamic for House Democrats, and indeed — the course of history.”

These women call themselves the “badasses,” a name that one of them, Chrissy Houlahan, says, “came organically from the group since we all had either served in the military or in the CIA.”

So, it was no squad of “progressives,” but a cohort of Democrats bound by national-security/intelligence “service” that “opened the floodgates,” and persuaded Nancy Pelosi to move with them “from hard no to hell yes on starting an
impeachment inquiry.”

They say their position changed so suddenly and dramatically that week in September because, as CIA veterans and all, they were shocked, shocked that POTUS “may have used his position to pressure a foreign country into investigating a political
opponent.” Reading their op-ed, you’ll find no hint that they share their colleague Gerecht’s concern about “the president’s repeated failure to militarily respond to Iranian actions.” No, no, these military and CIA badasses keep their “
steadfast focus” on “health care [and] infrastructure.” Sure.


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ISIS leader 'dead': Dramatic blast footage claims to show moment US Special Ops
forces 'blitzed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's Syrian lair as he detonated his own suicide vest'

Major ISIS target, believed to be Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, reportedly killed in Syria
US-led forces in Idlib, Syria descended on the ISIS leader's lair, reports suggest
Early reports suggests Baghdadi may have detonated his suicide vest in the raid
Donald Trump plans to make a 'major statement' at the White House at 1pm GMT
Al-Baghdadi issued a chilling call to arms in 2014 declaring an Islamic 'caliphate'
Under his leadership, smaller-scale higher-frequency attacks became the norm
The Westminster and Manchester Arena terrorist attacks were both linked to ISIS

By Rod Ardehali For Mailonline

Published: 23:13 EDT, 26 October 2019 | Updated: 08:59 EDT, 27 October 2019

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This is the moment ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is believed to have been killed while under a barrage of fire from US Special Ops forces during an overnight raid in north-west Syria.

Al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic caliphate, reportedly blew himself up during the targeted attack on his lair in Syria's Idlib province in the early hours of Sunday morning.

He arrived at area of the raid 48 hours beforehand, Turkish official said.

The ISIS leader was with his two wives, who were both reportedly wearing explosive devices, as well as his children which are believed to still be alive.

The video is as yet unconfirmed and the final confirmation of Baghdadi's death is underway while DNA and biometric testing is conducted, sources told CNN.

Scroll down for video
Caliphate leader: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is thought to have detonated his own suicide vest during the targeted raid on his lair in Syria's Idlib province. He
is shown in a still from a video released in April, having not been seen since he spoke at the
Grand Mosque in Mosul in 2014
+9

Caliphate leader: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is thought to have detonated his own suicide vest during the targeted raid on his lair in Syria's Idlib province. He
is shown in a still from a video released in April, having not been seen since he spoke at the
Grand Mosque in Mosul in 2014
Syrians ride a motorcycle past a burnt vehicle near the site where a helicopter
gunfire reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was reportedly among those who died in the attack +9

Syrians ride a motorcycle past a burnt vehicle near the site where a helicopter
gunfire reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was reportedly among those who died in the attack


Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said on Sunday they had worked with the US on a 'successful' operation against Islamic State.

'Our strong and effective operations once again confirm our strength and determination to go after (Islamic State),' the head of the SDF's media office said.

Officials say confirmation that the ISIS chief was killed in the explosion is pending, with President Trump is set to make a 'major statement' at the White House at 1pm (GMT).

The ISIS leader has been among US and Europe's force's most wanted figures since his chilling call to arms in 2014, which saw a shift away from the mass casualty attacks carried out by al-Qaeda in favour of smaller-scale acts of violence.
Al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic caliphate, reportedly blew himself up during the targeted attack on his lair in Syria's Idlib province in the early hours of Sunday morning
+9

Al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic caliphate, reportedly blew himself up during the targeted attack on his lair in Syria's Idlib province in the early hours of Sunday morning

Shifting away from the airline hijackings and other mass-casualty attacks that came to define al-Qaeda, al-Baghdadi encouraged smaller-scale acts of violence that would be harder for law enforcement to prepare for and prevent.

He encouraged jihadists who could not travel to the caliphate to kill where they were using whatever weapon they had at their disposal, resulting in a series devastating attacks in the UK and Europe.

His words inspired more than 140 terrorist attacks in 29 countries other than Iraq and Syria, resulting in the deaths of at least 2,043 people, CNN reports. RELATED ARTICLES

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Al-Baghdadi led ISIS for the last five years, presiding over its ascendancy as it cultivated a barbaric reputation for beheadings and horrific executions.

These recordings, often noted for their high production values, were distributed online along with the ISIS propaganda magazine Dabiq.

He remained among the few ISIS commanders still at large despite multiple claims in recent years about his death and even as his so-called caliphate dramatically shrank, with many supporters who joined the cause either imprisoned or jailed.
A picture taken on October 27, 2019 shows a burnt vehicle at the site where a helicopter gunfire reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha in the province of Idlib near the border with Turkey
+9

A picture taken on October 27, 2019 shows a burnt vehicle at the site where a helicopter gunfire reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha in the province of Idlib near the border with Turkey

Trump tweeted without explanation on Saturday, 'Something very big has just happened!'
+9

Trump tweeted without explanation on Saturday, 'Something very big has just happened!'

With a £19.5 million ($25m) bounty on his head, al-Baghdadi had been far less visible in recent years, releasing only sporadic audio recordings, including one just last month in which he called on members of the extremist group to do all they could to
free ISIS detainees and women held in jails and camps.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported an attack carried out by a squadron of eight helicopters accompanied by a warplane.

The attacks were on positions where ISIS operatives were believed to be hiding
in the Barisha area north of Idlib city, after midnight on Saturday-Sunday.

It said the helicopters targeted ISIS positions with heavy strikes for about 120 minutes, during which jihadists targeted the helicopters with heavy weapons.

The Syrian Observatory documented the death of nine people as a result of the coalition helicopter attack, adding that the death toll is likely to rise due to the presence of a large number of wounded.

The strike came amid concerns that a recent American pullback from northeastern
Syria could infuse new strength into the militant group, which had lost vast stretches of territory it had once controlled.

The purported audio was his first public statement since last April, when he appeared in a video for the first time in five years.

In 2014, he was a black-robed figure delivering a sermon from the pulpit of Mosul's Great Mosque of al-Nuri, his only known public appearance.

He urged Muslims around the world to swear allegiance to the caliphate and obey
him as its leader.

'It is a burden to accept this responsibility to be in charge of you,' he said in the video.
Reports suggest that al-Baghdadi, the elusive militant who has been the subject
of an international manhunt for years, had been killed in Idlib, Syria
+9

Reports suggest that al-Baghdadi, the elusive militant who has been the subject
of an international manhunt for years, had been killed in Idlib, Syria

'I am not better than you or more virtuous than you. If you see me on the right
path, help me. If you see me on the wrong path, advise me and halt me. And obey
me as far as I obey God.'

The reported death of such a high-value US target comes amid a difficult political backdrop fro Trump, who has been frustrated heavy media focus on the Democratic-led impeachment inquiry, which he calls an illegitimate witch hunt.

He has also faced withering criticism from both Republicans and Democrats alike
for his US troop withdrawal from northeastern Syria, which permitted Turkey to attack America's Kurdish allies.

Trump was expected to make the statement in the White House Diplomatic Reception Room, which he has used to make a number of major announcements.

Just last week he used the same room to announce that a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurds had taken hold.
The rise and fall of the Islamic State

The Islamic State group erupted from the chaos of Syria and Iraq's conflicts, declaring itself a 'caliphate' after conquering a giant stretch of territory.

Its territorial rule, which at its height in 2014 stretched across nearly a third of both Syria and Iraq, ended in March with a last stand by several hundred of its militants at a tiny Syrian village on the banks of the Euphrates
near the border with
Iraq.

But the militants have maintained a presence in both countries, and their shadowy leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had continued releasing messages urging them to keep up the fight.

Here are the key moments in the rise and fall of the Islamic State group:
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - who was also known as Caliph Ibrahim - released a propaganda video in 2014 where he addressed Muslim worshipers at a mosque in Mosul
+9

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - who was also known as Caliph Ibrahim - released a propaganda video in 2014 where he addressed Muslim worshipers at a mosque in Mosul

April 2013 - Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announces the merger of his group with al-Qaeda's franchise in Syria, forming the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.

January 2014 - Al-Baghdadi's forces overrun the city of Fallujah in Iraq's western Anbar province and parts of the nearby provincial capital of Ramadi. In
Syria, they seize sole control of the city of Raqqa after driving out rival Syrian rebel factions,
and it becomes their de facto capital.

February 2014 - Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri disavows al-Baghdadi after the
Iraqi militant ignores his demands that IS leave Syria.

June 2014 - IS captures Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, and pushes south as Iraqi forces crumble, eventually capturing Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit and reaching the outskirts of Baghdad. When they threaten Shiite holy sites, Iraq's top Shiite
cleric issues a call to arms, and masses of volunteers, largely backed and armed by Iran, join militias.

June 29, 2014 - The group renames itself the Islamic State and declares the establishment of a self-styled 'caliphate' in its territories in Iraq and Syria. Al-Baghdadi is declared the caliph.

July 4, 2014 - Al-Baghdadi makes his first public appearance, delivering a Friday sermon in Mosul's historic al-Nuri Mosque. He urges Muslims around the world to swear allegiance to the caliphate and obey him as its leader.

August 2014 - IS captures the town of Sinjar west of Mosul and begins a systematic slaughter of the tiny Yazidi religious community. Women and girls are kidnapped as sex slaves; hundreds remain missing to this day.

August 8, 2014 - The U.S. launches its campaign of airstrikes against IS in Iraq.

September 22, 2014 - The U.S.-led coalition begins an aerial campaign against IS in Syria.

January, 2015 - Iraqi Kurdish fighters, backed by U.S.-led airstrikes, drive IS
out of several towns north of Mosul. In Syria, Kurdish fighters backed by U.S. airstrikes repel an IS onslaught on the town of Kobani on the border with Turkey, the first
significant defeat for IS.

April 1, 2015 - U.S.-backed Iraqi forces retake Tikrit, their first major victory against IS.

May 20, 2015 - IS captures the ancient Syrian town of Palmyra, where the extremists later destroy archaeological treasures.

February 9, 2016 - Iraqi forces recapture Ramadi after months of fighting and at enormous cost, with thousands of buildings destroyed. Almost the entire population fled the city.

June 26, 2016 - Fallujah is declared liberated by Iraqi forces after a five-week battle.

July 3, 2016 - IS sets off a gigantic suicide truck bomb outside a Baghdad shopping mall, killing almost 300 people, the deadliest attack in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

October 17, 2016 - Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announces the start of the operation to liberate Mosul.
Iraqi Army soldiers celebrate as they hold an IS flag, which they captured during a raid on a village outside Mosul in November 2016
+9

Iraqi Army soldiers celebrate as they hold an IS flag, which they captured during a raid on a village outside Mosul in November 2016

November 5, 2016 - The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces launch
Operation Euphrates Wrath, the first of five operations aiming to retake Raqqa,
starting with an encircling of the city.

January 24, 2017 - Al-Abadi announces eastern Mosul has been 'fully liberated'.

May 10, 2017 - SDF captures the strategic Tabqa dam after weeks of battles and a major airlift operation that brought SDF fighters and their U.S. advisers to the area. The fall of the dam facilitated the push on Raqqa, about 25 miles away.

June 6, 2017 - SDF fighters begin an attack on Raqqa from three sides, backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes.

June 18, 2017 - Iraqi forces launch battle for Mosul's Old City, the last IS stronghold there.

June 21, 2017 - IS destroys Mosul's iconic al-Nuri Mosque and its 12th century leaning minaret as Iraqi forces close in.

July 10, 2017 - Iraqi PM declares victory over IS in Mosul and end of the extremists' caliphate in Iraq.

October 17, 2017 - SDF takes full control of Raqqa after months of heavy bombardment that devastates the city.

September - December, 2017 - Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air power and Iranian forces, recapture IS territory on the western bank of the Euphrates River, seizing the cities of Deir el-Zour, Mayadin and Boukamal on the border with Iraq.
Isis lost its hold over Mosul in July 2017 but the city suffered severe bombing +9

Isis lost its hold over Mosul in July 2017 but the city suffered severe bombing


August 23, 2018 - IS leader al-Baghdadi resurfaces in his first purported audio
recording in almost a year; he urges followers to 'persevere' and continue fighting.


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