WTXS21 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851Z MAR 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 68.5E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATTELITE IMAGERY AND A
281357Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 98S HAS POOR CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH (20-30KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ALTHOUGH OVER WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98S
WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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