WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.4S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.2S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.4S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.7S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.1S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.9S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 179.5W.
17DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY WELL ESTABLISHED EYE HAVING FULLY FILLED IN AND
DISSIPATED BY THE 0600Z HOUR, AFTER PASSING OVER THE ISLAND OF VANUA
LEVU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FIJI RADAR DATA WAS NOT
CONCLUSIVE, BUT DID PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CLARITY TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A
PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS), AND
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED, BUT
WEAKENING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE
SOUTH, WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28C). TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL-SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (NER-STR) COMPLEX
LOCATED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH, WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER ANOTHER STR DEVELOPS AND BUILDS NORTH OF
THE NEW ZEALAND, BECOMING THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
PUSHING TC 05P ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. THE COMBINATION
OF STEADILY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL OFFSET THE
CONTINUED ROBUST OUTFLOW, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU
96. AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 200MB LOW, IT IS FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM, COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
AND THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE TAU 72-120 RANGE HOWEVER,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GFS BEING THE SHARPEST AND FASTEST TURN, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EAST,
LEADING TO A NEARLY 600NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES FAIRLY CLOSE THE GFS SOLUTION, TO THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z,
180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
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