WTPS13 NFFN 161500
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 161514 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAZU CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 165.6W AT
161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 34
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. TC ZAZU LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ZAZU IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT
35 NAUTICAL MILES, YIELDING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 27.1S 163.8W MOV SSE AT 20 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 29.5S 162.9W MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 29.9S 161.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 29.4S 158.4W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TC
ZAZU.
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