WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 15.1N, 121.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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