WTPN21 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 124.6E TO 12.8N 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 124.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.1E, APPROXIMATELY 45
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 071007Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC AND SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE
BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29
TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD
WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MODELS
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITH LIMITED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081500Z.//
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