WTPQ30 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2019 GONI (2019)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GONI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 14.3N, 121.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS AND LAND. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS
ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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