451
WTNT33 KNHC 261756
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves
over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is
forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf
of Mexico later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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