565
WTNT42 KNHC 231456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12
hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary
satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional
well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75
kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite
trends.

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster
speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day
or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge
located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward
the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be
moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very
similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus
models.

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will
actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as
it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however,
that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening.
Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the
next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate
any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening
should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually
increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream.
However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude
cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the
previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
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