WTIN20 DEMS 200708
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 20.09.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 20.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 20.09.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL &
NEIGHBOURHOOD IN THE
EARLY MORNING (0000 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 20TH SEPTEMBER. AT 0300 UTC,
IT PERSISTS
OVER SAME REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED OVER NORTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL
& NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LATITUDE 10.0N GULF OF MARTABAN & NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER REST SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA ALSO OVER
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS:NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 230600
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.09.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
23.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23.09.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AND WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA
PRADESH. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH-EAST ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH-EAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER GULF
OF KUTCH AND GULF OF CAMBAY. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :


24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS:
NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 300614
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1000 UTC OF
30.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 30.09.2020.



BAY OF BENGAL:



SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL ADJOINING NORTHWEST OF
NORTH BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH & EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.



A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHWEST & ADJOINING WEST
CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF ODISHA COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 010629
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA)
VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 01.10.2020 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 01.10.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTH ODISHA COASTS.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL, SOUTH
BAY OF BENGAL, ARAKAN COAST, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, GULF OF MARTABAN AND
TENASSERIM COAST.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:


24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF
SOUTH ARABIAN
SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

REMARKS: NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 080645
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
08.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 08.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:

A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY
TO FORM OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL ON 9TH OCTOBER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH AND ADJOINING SOUTH ODISHA COAST AS A DEPRESSION AROUND 11TH
OCTOBER AFTERNOON/EVENING.



SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL .



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


LOW


MODERATE


MODERATE


NIL



ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA COAST.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :





24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL





























REMARKS:



MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND NEPS
ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER WITH WESTNORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ADJOINING SOUTH ODISHA COAST AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS AND CROSS TOWARDS SAME REGION.
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX IS ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL
ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL
BOB DURING 9TH \U2013 11TH OCTOBER.=
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