WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 105.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.5N 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 104.4E.
18SEP20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
WEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 27 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH HAS TRACKED INLAND AND IS LOCATED OVER LAOS. AN 180620Z ATMS
88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS
THE LLCC, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KTS BASED ON A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WEAKER WIND SPEEDS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OF 993-995 MB. DESPITE ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, TS 13W IS TRACKING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (20-30 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TS 13W TO
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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