468
AXNT20 KNHC 011743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 34.7N 73.1W at
01/1500 UTC, or 120 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm in the E
semicircle. On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast today.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011440.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/011440.shtml
for more details.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Nana is centered near 16.6N 77.9W at
01/1700 UTC, or 100 nm SSE of Negril, Jamaica and 595 nm E of
Belize City, Belize, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 250 nm of the NW quadrant and scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm of the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, Nana
will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday
and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on Thursday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011648.shtml
and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/011647.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 28W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 27W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 31W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N to 13N between 40W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
06N to 15N between 50W and 54W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the northern portion of the wave from 16N-19N between 63W-67W,
including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to
12N28W to 11N37W to 13N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 15N between 20W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to stretch across the Gulf with isolated thunderstorms off the Florida coast. Otherwise, no significant
convection is noted. Light to gentle winds are over the eastern Gulf
with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Seas
range 4-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft off the South Texas coast.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes
over the eastern Gulf through mid week.The high pressure will lift
north of the area later in the week ahead of a trough entering
eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
regarding T.S. Nana.

Scattered moderate convection is moving across the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic in addition to portions of
the Windward Passage. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen off
the coast of eastern Panama/NW Colombia in addition to the Gulf
of Venezuela. Outside of T.S. Nana, light to gentle trades are
observed across the basin with fresh winds in the Windward Passage.
Seas are 2-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the center of T.S. Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move to 16.4N 79.6W this evening, 16.6N
82.3W Wed morning, 16.7N 85.1W Wed evening, 16.8N 87.4W Thu morning,
then inland to 16.5N 89.6W Thu evening. T.S. Nana will become a
remnant low and move to 15.7N 91.7W Fri morning. T.S. Nana will
dissipate early Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information about Tropical Depression Fifteen.

A trough is analyzed north of Puerto Rico from 28N67W to 20N67W
with scattered moderate convection along the trough from 20N-25N
between 67W-70W. No other significant convection is noted across
the Atlantic. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the basin
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N47W. Winds are generally light to
gentle across the western Atlantic seas 3-5 ft. Winds are gentle to
moderate in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas 5-8 ft.

A ridge extending from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will
lift north today as trough currently south of 23N through Puerto
Rico moves northwest into the southern Bahamas by late today. The
trough will move west of the area Thu, supporting fresh to strong
winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windwards Passage Wed
night into Thu morning. The ridge will remain along 29N Thu and Fri,
supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 27N.

$$
AReinhart

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257
AXNT20 KNHC 021635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nana is centered near 17.1N 84.6W at 02/1500 UTC
or 130 nm ENE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle and
150 nm in the SW semicircle of the storm. Nana will intensify to
hurricane strength late tonight before making landfall in Belize.
It will then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression during the
day Thu, inland over Belize and Guatemala. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Omar is centered near 36.2N 67.4W at 02/1500 UTC
or 270 nm NNW of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Omar continues to experience significant
NW shear, with scattered moderate convection displaced well SE,
within 180 nm, of the center. Omar is expected to continue moving
E Thu, while gradually weakening to a Tropical Depression. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this afternoon
along 19W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 09N to 12N E
of 20W. This wave is expected to merge with a disturbance
centered a couple hundred miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands by
Thu night. Gradually development of this system is then possible,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it
moves west through the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
It has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours,
but there is a medium chance over the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 09N to 11N between 25W and 36W. Weak low pressure
developing in association with this low has some potential for
tropical development as it meanders over the central and eastern
tropical Atlantic ocean. There is a low chance of tropical
formation over the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward,
moving W 10 knots. No significant convection is observed.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed
behind this wave from 11N to 13N between 55W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
12N to 16N between 68W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections
of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 12N47W. The intertropical
convergence zone continues to 12N60W. In addition to the
convection described in the tropical waves section, Scattered
moderate convection is evident form 12N to 14N between 36W an
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, to a 1017 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N85W. The ridge continues
southwestward, to the coast of Mexico along 20N.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to
fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle
breezes over the eastern Gulf through tonight. The high pressure
will lift north of the area later in the week ahead of a trough
entering the eastern Gulf. The trough will dissipate over the
central Gulf by Fri. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall over
the northern Gulf Sat and dissipate through late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about T.S. Nana.

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted south of Cuba, with to 5 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere north of 15N
with light breezes south of 15N.

Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the central Caribbean
through Sun with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak trough has become ill-defined and dissipated over the NW
Bahamas this afternoon. A ridge is oriented along 28N. Moderate
to fresh E winds are noted south of 22N, with moderate SE winds
off northeast Florida. Light breezes are noted in between along
the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters outside of the
Bahamas.

A ridge extending from the central Atlantic to near Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas is lifting northward ahead of a westward
moving trough entering the southern Bahamas. The trough will move
west of the area tonight into Thu, supporting fresh to locally
strong winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight into Thu morning. The ridge will remain along 29N
Thu and Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 22N.

Farther east, broad ridging north of 20N is supporting moderate
trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over most of the eastern Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK


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673
AXNT20 KNHC 050925
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
524 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 36.2N 57.1W at 05/0900
UTC or 450 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate convection
is noted within 240 nm in the S quadrant of Omar. Omar is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Sun, and to
dissipate by late Sun or early Mon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A 1009 mb low is near 17N29W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 28W
and 33W, with an additional area of similar convection from 15N-
19N between 34W-37W which may be associated with a weaker, more
transient low. Gradual development of this low is expected as it
moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the
system reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 30W/31W from 03N-18N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 31W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 54W S of 19N to near the coast and
border of Suriname and French Guiana, moving W at 10 kt. No
significant convection is noted.

A tropical wave axis is along 68W from near the Mona Passage
southward to across the A-B-C Islands and into western Venezuela,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N-17N between 66W-67W.

A tropical wave axis is along 86W near the Gulf of Honduras S of
19N to central Honduras and continuing into the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N and W of the wave
axis to across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central
America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 11N30W to low pressure near 11N38W to 09N50W. The
eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean
Sea from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W to the northern coast
of Colombia near 13N72W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N-17N between 17W-20W, from 09N-12N
between 35W-42W, and from 09N to 11N between 79W-82W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N-14N between 14W-26W, from
07N-09N between 35W-44W, and from 13N-15N between 28W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from the S Texas coastal waters near
27N97W to across the offshore waters of Veracruz to S Mexico near
18N95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
S of 22N and W of 92W, and also within 180 nm E-SE of the Texas
and Mexico coasts. Mainly broad ridging covers the remainder of
the basin. Fresh to strong winds that were pulsing NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula have diminished in the past few hours. Mainly
moderate easterly flow prevails elsewhere, except light and
variable winds in the NE Gulf. A cold front was analyzed inland
from the South Carolina Upstate to across the Gulf coast U.S.
states.

The front will slowly dip S and will stall over the far N Gulf on
Sun, then dissipate by Mon. A stronger cold front may reach the
NW Gulf late Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula early this morning and then again tonight, then
moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the two tropical waves discussed above, high pressure
is noted N-NE of the basin. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 14N-17N between 72W-76W due to a mid to
upper level trough.

High pres N of the basin will contribute to fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere through today. An active tropical wave currently
in the E Caribbean will cause scattered showers and isolated as it
moves across the basin over the next few days. The trades will
diminish basinwide by the end of the weekend into early next week
as the high N of the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1020 mb is noted NE of the Bahamas near 29N79W,
while a forming cold front was analyzed offshore of the Carolinas.
Another cold front was analyzed inland over the western Carolinas.
Broad ridging dominates the open Atlantic waters N of 20N with
moderate to fresh trades S of 23N and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of 23N.

The cold front over the Carolinas may drop just S-SE of 31N by
the end of the weekend, stalling and dissipating through early
next week. Weak low pres and remnant troughing may linger in the
NE portion before dissipating by mid-week as high pres NE of the
area builds in.

$$
Lewitsky
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726
AXNT20 KNHC 060948
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
548 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low accompanied with a tropical wave located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic is near 18.5N38W moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
16N-18N between 38W-43W. Earlier scatterometer data showed that
this low was located more to the W-SW than previous fixes.
Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves
westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next day or two as the system reaches the
central tropical Atlantic.
This system has a high chance for development within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along the coast of Africa near 16W,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 11N-20N between 13W-23W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 13W-17W. This
wave will likely bring heavy rainfall to the Cabo Verde Islands
during the next couple of days.

A tropical wave axis is near 38W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N-19N between 37W-
39W and from 08N-10N between 37W-43W.

A tropical wave axis is near 59W/60W from 19N southward to the
coast of Guyana, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave axis is near 72W/73W from across Haiti southward
to near the western Venezuela/Colombia border, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
15N-19N between 68W-74W, with additional convection noted over
far NW Venezuela and portions of central and western Colombia
ahead of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 92W from near the Bay of Campeche
along the coast of Mexico southward into the eastern Pacific
Ocean basin, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted S of 21N in the Bay of Campeche and SW
Gulf of Mexico with additional activity inland ahead of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
Mauritania/Senegal border at 17N16W to 13N35W to 08N47W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N47W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 28W-33W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N-17N between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from just S of Apalachee Bay, Florida
to across the northern Gulf along 28N to near Matagorda Bay,
Texas. Only isolated showers are noted near the front. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Texas/Mexico border SE-S offshore of
Tampico and Veracruz to near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted W-SW of the trough
including over inland portions of Mexico. Winds W of the trough
are increasing to fresh to strong this morning, while an area of
fresh to strong easterly winds are E of the trough NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to an earlier wind surge. Otherwise,
scatterometer data indicates that gentle to moderate easterly flow
prevails. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the E central
Gulf from 24N-26N between 85W-88W due to a weak mid- level
trough.

The front will stall and dissipate through early Mon. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche,
diminishing early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds
and seas will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger
cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with
fresh to strong winds at a minimum behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection
near the tropical wave along 70W, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm W-NW of a line from near the Windward
Passage to 13N78W, while scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N-17N between 81W-85W associated with a
couple of mid to upper level troughs. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the
SW Caribbean.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the western
Caribbean by the early part of the week. The tropical wave in the
Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean during
the early part of the week. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the
basin will support moderate trades, locally fresh in the central
Caribbean, for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low
pressure near 18.5N38W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 27N from the Bahamas
westward to the Florida Peninsula. This convection is associated
with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is
currently located between the Bahamas and Cuba. Deep E/SE flow
will persist as the TUTT progresses towards South Florida. The
TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for
much of the week.

A 1018 mb high pressure area is analyzed near 30N72W with broad
ridging from 28N-31N across the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. A
surface trough is noted just E of 65W, from 32N61W to 27N63W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
27N-30N between 58W-65W near the trough axis. Moderate trades
prevail S of 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 25N.

The trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of
the week with low pres possibly developing along it before
dissipating by mid-week. High pres will build N-NE of the area by
mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing.

$$
Lewitsky
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348
AXNT20 KNHC 062226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2220 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is near 18/19W from 05N-21N moving W at 10-15
kt. Low pressure of 1006 MB has developed along this wave near
14.5N18.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 18N east of 21W to the coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
low, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next couple of days while it moves generally westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall is likely there Monday night and
Tuesday. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave axis is near 39W from 03N-22N moving W 10 kt. A
1005 mb low is along the wave axis near 16.5N40.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the
low. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development
within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 61W from 19N southward, moving W at
15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 74W S of 20N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N- 19N
between 72W- 77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also noted where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 17N16W to low pres near
14.5N18.5W to 12N25W to low pres near 16.5N40.5W to 09N51W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N51W to 10N59W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the special features section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 21W and 37W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 51W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 28N82W to
28N90W to near 28N96W. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N96W
to 19N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is W
of 93W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf,
with light to gentle winds over the northern Gulf.

The front will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche tonight.
A cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with
fresh to strong winds behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across
the western Caribbean.

Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail across the central
basin through Mon, then diminish to moderate the remainder
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with two
areas of low pressures across the eastern tropical Atlantic
waters.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N77W to Daytona
Beach Florida near 29N81W. A surface trough extends from 32N63W
to 27N65W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm east of the
trough S of 29N. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 28N
from the Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This
convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas and
Cuba. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South
Florida for much of the week.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters N of 20N.
Strong winds are noted within 270 nm N semicircle of low pres
near 16.5N40.5W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of
20N.

A trough just E of the NE offshore waters will drift W through
the early part of the week with low pres possibly developing
along it before dissipating by late Thu. High pres will build
N-NE of the area by mid-week with moderate to locally fresh E-SE
flow prevailing. An area of low pressure, with a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone, may affect the waters E of 65W by
the end of the week.

$$
AL
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762
AXNT20 KNHC 071730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 17.2N 42.2W at
07/1500 UTC or 1194 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands moving
WNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-20N
between 37W-45W. A general west-northwestward to northwestward
motion at a slightly faster speed is expected during the next
several days. Modest additional strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near 15.7N 21.2W at
07/1500 UTC or 160 nm E of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N-18N between
20W-24W. A westerly motion is expected over the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to
pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 65W from 20N southward to the
N central coast of Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 05N-10N
between 63W-68W.

A tropical wave axis is along 77W from the S coast of Cuba to
Jamaica to N Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends between the T.D. Eighteen and
T.S. Paulette from 15N27W to 16N38W. The monsoon trough resumes
W of T.S. Paulette near 13N46W to 10N53W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N53W to Trinidad near 10N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-14N between 26W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula.
A surface trough is in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough.
Otherwise, broad high pressure is building across the
basin from the Carolinas with mainly gentle to moderate easterly
flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less across the
NE half of the Gulf, and 3-4 ft across the SW half of the Gulf.

The trough over the SW Gulf will linger tonight before
dissipating. Moderate to fresh SE winds may develop Tue and
Wed in the NW Gulf in advance of a cold front that is likely to
approach the northern Gulf coast mid to late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.
High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across
the western Caribbean except moderate easterly winds S of 18N in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft across the basin,
except locally 5 ft in the central portion.

Tropical Storm Paulette is near 17.2N 42.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving WNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Paulette will move to 17.4N 42.5W this evening, 17.9N 43.2W
Tue morning, 18.7N 44.4W Tue evening, 19.6N 46.0W Wed morning,
20.3N 48.2W Wed evening, and 20.7N 50.0W Thu morning. Paulette
will change little in intensity as it moves well north and east
of the Leeward Islands early Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave S
of eastern Cuba across Jamaica to Colombia will move across the
western Caribbean through Tue and move out of the basin Tue night
while a second tropical wave moves from the eastern Caribbean
into the central forecast waters. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail across the basin through the week, occasionally and
locally moderate to fresh in the S central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Eighteen.

A stationary front extends from 31N80W to the N Florida coast
near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A 1010 mb low is near 30N67W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 240 nm of the SE quadrant. A ridge of high pressure
extends from NW to SE through 26N72W with mainly moderate
E-SE winds SW of the ridge, and gentle winds NE of the ridge
except stronger winds near the low pressure area on the NE side.

Scattered moderate convection is also noted from the Central
Bahamas westward through the Straits of Florida associated with
a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is currently
located near South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in
the vicinity of South Florida for much of the week.

Tropical Storm Paulette is near 17.2N 42.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving WNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Paulette will move to 17.4N 42.5W this evening, 17.9N 43.2W
Tue morning, 18.7N 44.4W Tue evening, 19.6N 46.0W Wed morning,
20.3N 48.2W Wed evening, and 20.7N 50.0W Thu morning. Paulette
will change little in intensity as it moves well north and east
of the Leeward Islands early Fri. Elsewhere, a stationary front
off the NE Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Low pressure
near 30N67W will drift west through the week north of the
Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail across
the basin through the week.

$$
Formosa
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092
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 18.4N 43.3W at 08/1500
UTC or about 1120 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands or 1125 nm
east of the northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the center, except 30
nm in the SE quadrant. Similar convection denotes and outer rain
band from 18N to 21N between 40-43W, and within 30 nm of line from
15N41W to 18N39W. Paulette will continue on its current motion
through tonight before a turn toward the west-northwest or west
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. Moderate additional strengthening is possible
today and Paulette could be near hurricane strength by tonight.
Gradual weakening is then expected by late Wed. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.5N 26.5W at 08/1500 UTC
or 90 nm west-northwest of the Santo Cabo Verde Islands moving
westward at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Satellite imagery shows that its convective bands are not
presently well-defined for the time being. The imagery depicts
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of
the center in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm of the
center in the southern semicircle. An outer broken convective
rain band consists of mainly moderate convection and is within
30 nm of a line from 14N27W to 16N29W and to 18N28W. Rene will
continue on its current motion through tonight, before it acquires
an expected motion toward the west to west-northwest over the
next two or three days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene
will move away from the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Rene is
expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are still
occurring over the western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands.
These winds will subside later today. Little change in strength
is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening Thu. through
Fri. Rene is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W south of
20N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the wave axis
from 11N to 13N. Isolated showers are within 120 nm west of
the wave axis from 13N-18N. The earlier scattered moderate to
strong convection over northern Colombia has dissipated.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W south of
19N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave shows no
signals both at the low and mid-levels in the latest model data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis has shifted southward since the overnight
hours as low pressure associated with a tropical wave develops
inland Africa. It is analyzed from a 1009 mb low near 12N04W to
the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and to near 06N14W, where it
beaks down. It resumes to the southwest of Paulette near 13N47W
and to 09N53W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 10N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-13N between 43W-
48W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 08W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across the northern Florida
Peninsula as high pressure over the Carolinas continues to
stretch southwestward to over the central Gulf. A slow moving
westward surface trough is analyzed from near just offshore of
the Florida Gulf coast near 27N85W south-southwestward to 24N85W
and to the northern Yucatan Channel. An upper-level trough is
over the eastern Gulf. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms
are within 60 to 90 nm of this trough. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms, moving to the northwest, are north of 25N and west
of 92W, and also over the far southern Bay of Campeche. Isolated
showers moving westward are elsewhere east of 90W. Both buoy data
and latest scatterometer data depict mainly gentle to moderate
east-southeast winds across the basin. Current altimeter data
passes and buoys reveal relatively low seas in the range of 1-3 ft
throughout the basin.

As for the forecast, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into late part of the week. The eastern Gulf surface
trough will continue to slowly move westward through the
remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure pattern persists over the area as
was shown in the latest pressure analysis. An elongated upper-
level low is located over the eastern Caribbean at 16N65W, with a
trough extending southwestward to near 13N67W. Upper-level ridging
exists between this trough and weak upper- level trough over the
western Caribbean that extends from western Cuba to 18N84W and to
the northeast coast of Honduras. The eastern periphery of upper-
level ridging is present west of this trough. Atmospheric
instability initiated mainly by the upper-level low near 16N65W
has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorm to be north of
16N and east of 64W and to over the Leeward Islands and
surrounding waters. Similar activity is over Puerto Rico and
waters that include those surrounding the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection aided by
the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
seen from 09N to 12N between 76W and 79W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 20N and west of 76W.

The tropical wave along 71W will continue westward through the
central Caribbean through Wed, then across the western Caribbean
during late in week. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle
to moderate trades throughout the basin. Little change in marine
conditions is anticipated through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
both Tropical Storm Paulette and on Tropical Storm Rene.

A weakening stationary front is analyzed over northern Florida.
It extends northeastward to offshore of the Carolinas. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the front. A 1012
mb low pressure area is near 30N68W along a trough axis N of 26N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing
within 90 nm of the low in the SW quadrant. Similar convection is
noted from 25N-28N between 66W-69W. The low pressure has a low
chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours as it
drifts westward well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas
during the rest of the week. Scattered moderate convection is
noted From 22N- 26N from across the Bahamas to offshore of the
Florida coast. This convection is mainly being triggered by very
moist southerly flow that is present to the east of a mid to
upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-30N between
55W-60W associated with an upper-level low near 27N59W and
related trough that extends from it northwestward to near 32N65W.

As for the forecast, the stationary front off the northeast
Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Large swells associated
with Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the
end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
moderate flow will prevail across the basin through the week.

$$
Aguirre
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461
AXNT20 KNHC 091004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 19.2N 45.6W at 09/0900
UTC or 1250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is sheared wtih
numerous moderate and scattered strong convection noted within
180 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 19N-24N between 40W-47W.
Paulette is moving toward the W and a slightly faster motion
toward the W-NW is expected later today, followed by a temporary
westward motion on Thu. A turn back toward the W-NW is expected on
Fri. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening anticipated on Thu and Fri.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 17.4N 30.5W at 09/0900
UTC or 380 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the W semicircle and
within 60 nm in the E semicircle. The depression is moving
toward the W-NW and this general motion is expected for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn to the NW. Satellite imagery
shows that the system is becoming better organized, and Rene is
expected to regain tropical storm strength later today and become
a hurricane in a couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is inland over Africa along 07W/08W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area is along the wave near
12N. Scattered moderate convection is noted well out ahead of the
wave including within 240 nm of the W coast of Africa from 05N-
14N. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This area has a low
probability of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave axis is along 78W from southern Cuba to across
Jamaica to near the Panama/Colombia border, moving W at 15-20 kt.
No significant convection is noted with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

No monsoon trough is noted in the eastern and central Atlantic due
to the circulations of Paulette and Rene. The ITCZ extends from
12N50W to just S of Barbados near 13N60W. The eastern Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
11N73W to near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W and
beyond. Scattered modreate convection is noted from 10N-33W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm E-SE of a line from 19N44W to 14N46W to 12N50W, and from
07N-10N between 57W-61W. Similar convection is noted over the SW
Caribbean Sea and northern Colombia from 10N-12N between 72W-77W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida SW to just N
of the Yucatan Channel near 24N86W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted SE of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure centered NE of
the basin extends into the area W of the trough. Gentle to
moderate E-SE flow is noted across the basin, along with seas of 3
ft or less, except 3-4 ft off the Texas coast where winds are the
strongest.

The trough will drift W across the basin through the week,
dissipating by the weekend with high pressure rebuilding from NE
of the area in the wake. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are
anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette.

Other than the tropical wave approaching the western Caribbean as
is described above, no significant surface features are in the
basin. Weak and broad high pressure remains N-NE of the basin
maintaining gentle to moderate E-SE flow. Seas are 3 ft or less W
of 70W, and 2-4 ft E of 70W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted across western Cuba N of 20N between
82W-85W due to a mid to upper leve low. Isolated convection is
noted along and off the SW coast of Haiti, SE of the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic, and across the Caribbean coastal
waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

The tropical wave will move W through the western Caribbean for
the remainder of the week, while the weak high pressure remains
N-NE of the basin. Large swells associated with Paulette may
spread through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene.

A 1012 mb low is analyzed well NE of the Bahamas near 30.5N73W
along a N to S trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
conevction is noted N of 22N between 67W-73W with additional
isolated convection noted from 20N-30N between 60W-67W under an
area of upper level diffluence. A stationary front is located
about 40-60 nm offshore of the Carolinas, with a trailing trough
continuing SW across Daytona Beach Florida to Tampa Bay Florida.
Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these features. Mainly
gentle to moderate SE-S flow dominates the SW N Atlantic basin,
except light and variable winds SW of the low pressure area. Seas
are 3 ft or less SW-W of the Bahamas, and 3-6 ft elsewhere in
mixed easterly swell.

The low and trough will move slowly W-NW toward the coasts of
South and North Carolina, and gradual development of the low is
possible during the next 2-3 days. The stationary front off the
Carolinas will linger, dissipating by the end of the week. The
surface trough extending SW of the front will drift W across the
Florida Peninsula through mid-week. Large swells associated with
Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end
of the week through the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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335
AXNT20 KNHC 101717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 21.5N 49.1W at 10/1500
UTC or 935 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or
greater are within 330 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 210
nm SW quadrant, and 360 nm NW quadrant with peak seas near 29
ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 180 nm N semicircle. Paulette remains a sheared tropical
storm with an exposed low-level center. A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. Some additional slight weakening
is expected during the next day or so, but then Paulette is
forecast to restrengthen by Sat. Paulette could become a
hurricane by Sun or Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.6N 35.8W at 10/1500 UTC
or 800 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater
are within 0 nm S semicircle, 90 nm NE quadrant and 60 nm NW
quadrant with peak seas near 14 ft. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm W semicircle. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest.
Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of
days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Sat. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 18W is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 16W and 22W. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days.
Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the
latest updates.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 18W south of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is described in the Special
Features section above.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 80W south of
18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 11N23W. The circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette
and Tropical Storm Rene have disrupted the typical monsoon flow
over the remaining eastern and central Atlantic waters.
Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends
across Central America from near the Costa Rica/Panama border at
10N83W to the northern coast of Colombia near 11N73W.
Significant convection is described above in the Special
Features and Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from the upper Texas coast near 29N96W
to the northern coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the far western Gulf in
the vicinity of the boundary. Elsewhere, a surface trough
extends across the eastern Gulf from 29N83W to 24N88W, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the trough axis over
the NE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail across much of the basin, with
some moderate easterly winds over the SW Gulf. A recent
altimeter pass, along with buoy observations across the western
Gulf, indicate seas are generally 2-4 ft.

A surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through
the remainder of the week. Surface ridging will extend across
the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through
the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the Caribbean waters
today. Recent scatterometer data show gentle winds prevail
across much of the basin, with moderate winds noted offshore the
northern coast of Colombia. A small area of moderate winds is
also noted south of Hispaniola. Seas of 4-6 ft are found through
the Atlantic passages in long-period, easterly swell. Elsewhere,
wave heights are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in
the western Caribbean. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are shown in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore Cuba
and Hispaniola.

Large swells associated with Paulette will spread through the
Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages through the upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean
will exit the basin by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave off the
west coast of Africa.

A low pressure trough is analyzed offshore the NW Bahamas,
extending from 30N76W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted east of the trough axis to 70W. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to perhaps locally fresh winds are found
well east of this trough across the northern offshore waters.
Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong winds is shown within
540 nm N semicircle of T.S. Paulette, and a recent altimeter
pass indicates 12-ft or greater seas extend well N of the storm
center. Swell from Paulette is spreading across the central
Atlantic waters towards the Leeward Islands, and recent
altimeter data show 8 ft or greater seas building over the
offshore waters E of 60W. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow
persists N of 20N between 35W and 65W. Farther east, fresh to
strong NE winds are ongoing between the Canary Islands and
Western Sahara.

Swells associated with Paulette are beginning to spread into the
waters E of the Bahamas and will continue to propagate and build
through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface trough NE-E of Florida
will drift W through the remainder of the week.

$$
B Reinhart
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783
AXNT20 KNHC 111714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette at 11/1500 UTC is near
23.6N52.2W and is 690 nm ENE of the northern Leeward Islands and
847 nm SE of Bermuda. Paulette is moving NW at 9 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 300 nm in the northern semicircle.
Seas are up to 26 ft near the center and the 12 ft seas extend
270 nm in the NE quadrant, 420 nm in the NW quadrant, 120 nm in
the SE quadrant, and 300 nm in the SW quadrant. On the forecast
track, a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest with some
increase in forward speed is expected through early Monday. The
center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rene at 11/1500 UTC is near 20.3N
39.9W and is 943 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Rene is
moving WNW at 11 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1004 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 140 nm of the NW quadrant. Seas
are up to 15 ft near the center and the 12 ft seas extend 60 nm
in the NE quadrant and 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Rene will
continue to move WNW at the same general speed today followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. This wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 08N-15N between 24W-
28W. This system is expected to develop into a tropical
depression within the next few days while the system moves
generally westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation through
the next 48 hours.

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern
and central Bahamas and adjacent waters continues to show signs
of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along
with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could
be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph,
crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance
could become a tropical depression while it is near South
Florida tonight but it is more likely to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days and
interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress. There is a medium chance of
formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is beginning to move across
portions of central America, with its axis along 85W from 21N
southward moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted across the NW Caribbean from 16N-22N between 84W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Mauritania near 18N16W
to 13N24W to 14N32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough from 12N-16N between 18W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf
from 30N49W to 23N86W. Scattered moderate convection is along
and near the trough from 24N-30N between 83W-91W. This system
could see some slow development while it moves westward and
then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through early next week. There is a low chance of formation
through the next 48 hours.

At 1500 UTC, a stationary front in the western Gulf extends
from the southeast Texas coast to Mexico, from 30N95W to 20N96W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the
front from 19N-28N between 91W-98W. A trough extends in the Bay
of Campeche from 23N94W to 18N93W. Light to gentle winds are
noted in the eastern Gulf with fresh winds behind the stationary
front as noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Seas are 1-3 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in the western Gulf along and behind the
stationary front.

The stationary front across the western Gulf will continue to be
stationary and weaken through Sat. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds behind the front near the coast of Mexico will
diminish tonight or early Sat. The surface trough across the
central Gulf will drift westward over the next couple days.
Another surface trough over the NW Bahamas will cross Florida
through tonight, then move into the eastern Gulf on Sat. This
could result in increasing winds and seas over portions of the
northern Gulf this weekend and into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough in the NW Caribbean was analyzed
from 21N80W to 16N85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-
22N between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 76W-83W. An upper level
ridge across the eastern Caribbean is inhibiting convection.
Moderate trades are north of Colombia with light to gentle winds
across the rest of the basin. Seas range 2-5 ft.

Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic
and Caribbean Passages through this weekend. A tropical wave in
the NW Caribbean will exit the basin tonight. Another tropical
wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters and the Lesser
Antilles early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
surface trough in the western Atlantic.

Outside of the western Atlantic surface trough and the two
tropical storms in the central Atlantic, surface ridging
extends across the basin. Some showers are moving eastward
across the eastern Atlantic, including the Canary Islands,
N of 26N between 12W-32W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
across the western and central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds
are in the eastern Atlantic with the strongest winds off the
Western Sahara coast. Seas range 5-8 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move to 24.6N 53.7W this evening,
26.1N 55.5W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 27.6N
57.5W Sat evening, 28.9N 59.9W Sun morning, then approach
Bermuda Sun night and Mon. Large swell associated with Paulette
will spread eastward into the waters offshore the Bahamas today,
and continue to build seas through this weekend. A surface
trough over the NW Bahamas will move westward across Florida
through tonight.

$$
A Reinhart
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185
AXNT20 KNHC 121133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/0900 UTC, is
near 25.6N 80.7W. NINETEEN is moving W, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection and tstms are from 21N to 27N
between 77W and 82W. NINETEEN is forecast to move across Florida
this morning, and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/0900 UTC, is near
26.8N 56.1W. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 310 degrees, at 14 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are from 26N to 31N between 53W and 62W. The
center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night
and Monday. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette
is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more
details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 12/0900 UTC, is near 22.5N
43.5W. RENE is moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 12 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 21N to 24N between 43W and 46W. A slower north-northwest
motion is expected over the next couple of days. Little change in
intensity is expected, and a weakening trend will likely begin by
late Sunday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more
details.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
19N with axis near 31W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1007 mb
low pressure center is near 11N31W associated with the tropical
wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N
to 17N between 20W and 37W. Development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The chance of
formation during the next 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea extending
southward from 20N with axis near 89W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and tstms are over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 14N20W to 12N27W, then
resumes near 10N36W and continues along 13N46W to 13N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 29W and
42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N
to 14N between 42W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Nineteen inland near 25.6N 80.7W 1004 mb at 5
AM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Nineteen will move to 26.1N 82.0W this afternoon, strengthen
to a tropical storm near 26.9N 83.8W Sun morning, 27.9N 85.4W Sun
afternoon, 28.7N 86.6W Mon morning, 29.3N 87.7W Mon afternoon, and
29.6N 88.5W Tue morning, then move inland to 30.5N 90.0W early
Wed. A line of scattered showers extends across the SE Gulf from
SE Louisiana to the coast of northern Cuba. A stationary front
extends across the western Gulf from the Texas/Louisiana border to
the western Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, A surface trough across
the central Gulf will drift westward over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Heavy showers and tstms associated with Tropical Depression
Nineteen continue to affect central Cuba and adjacent waters.
Scattered showers and tstms are over southern Haiti and SW
Dominican Republic being supported by upper level diffluent flow.
In the SW Caribbean, the extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough
to Colombia continue to generate scattered heavy showers and tstms
S of 11N. Otherwise, with a weak pressure gradient N of the area,
gentle to locally moderate winds dominate the Caribbean waters,
with the highest winds being in the central basin.

Tropical Storm Paulette centered near 26.8N 56.1W 987 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt.
Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic and
Caribbean Passages this weekend. Low pressure associated with a
strong tropical wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters
the middle of next week.

Please, see the Special Features section for further details on
Paulette.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene are located in the
central Atlantic, and a developing area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is centered near 11N31W. Please,
see the Special Features section for further details on Paulette
and Rene.

Tropical Storm Paulette near 26.8N 56.1W 987 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt.
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near 28.0N 58.0W this
afternoon, move to 29.2N 60.5W Sun morning, 30.3N 62.9W Sun
afternoon, move north of the area to 31.8N 64.8W Mon morning,
33.5N 65.2W Mon afternoon, and 35.2N 63.2W Tue morning.

Tropical Storm Rene near 22.5N 43.5W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Rene
will move to 23.7N 44.9W this afternoon, 25.4N 46.3W Sun
morning, 26.6N 47.3W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical
depression near 27.2N 47.7W Mon morning, 27.1N 48.1W Mon
afternoon, 26.7N 49.1W Tue morning, and 25.5N 52.0W early Wed.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is inland near 25.6N 80.7W 1004 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
40 kt.

Large swell associated with Paulette will spread eastward across
the offshore waters and continue to build seas this weekend into
early next week.

$$
Mundell
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266
AXNT20 KNHC 121723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/1500 UTC, is
near 25.6N 81.5W, about 35 nm SSE of Naples, Florida and is
moving W at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 200
nm of the southern semicircle. T.D. Nineteen will turn toward the west-northwest later today. A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern
Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/1500 UTC, is near
27.5N 57.2W, about 490 nm SE of Bermuda, and is moving NW at 13
kt. The estimated central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are up to 24
ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending 270 nm in the NE
quadrant, 150 nm in the SE quadrant, 270 nm in the SW quadrant,
and 240 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is
within 190 nm in the NW quadrant and isolated thunderstorms are
within 200 nm in the NE quadrant. Paulette is expected to
continue to move northwest or west-northwest through late Sunday.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is
forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday
night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette
will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more
details.

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Rene, at 12/1500 UTC, is
near 23.2N 44.4W, about 1200 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands
and 1000 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 11
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are
up to 13 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending 30 nm in
the NE quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Showers are within
150 nm in the NW quadrant. T.D. Rene will continue moving NW
through tonight. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is
expected on Sunday and Monday. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected to occur by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more
details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with an axis along 32W
southward from 19N is moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1007 mb low is
located along the wave near 11N32W. Scattered moderate convection
is west of the wave from 10N-15N between 33W-37W. Development of
this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. The chance of formation during the next 48
hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic with an axis along 23W
southward from 20N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave from 13N-
17N between 23W-27W. This convection is impacting the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions support some development for
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week
while the system moves slowly westward. By mid-week, upper-level
winds could become less conducive for development. The chance of
development during the next 48 hours is low.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Mauritania near 18N16W
to 14N25W to 10N38W. Outside of the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 275 nm south of
the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
T.D. Nineteen.

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough located in the north-central Gulf
of Mexico was analyzed from 29N93W to 24N89W. Scattered
thunderstorms are associated with this trough from 25N-30N
between 85W-93W. This trough will have the possibility of some
slow development of this system while it moves westward and then
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through the middle of next week. There is a low chance of
development within the next 48 hours.

A stationary front continues to be draped across the western
Gulf, from the TX/LA border near 30N94W to southern Mexico near
19N95W. Scattered thunderstorms are associated with this front
from 18N-27N between 93W-97W. Moderate winds are noted in the
northern Gulf and in the western Gulf behind the front. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 2-4 ft.

Tropical Depression Nineteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 26.2N 83.0W this evening, move to 27.1N 84.8W Sun morning,
28.0N 86.4W Sun evening, and 28.7N 87.6W Mon morning. Nineteen
will strengthen to a hurricane near 29.3N 88.5W Mon evening and
be near 29.8N 89.1W Tue morning. Nineteen will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in
the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough from 09N-13N between
75W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf of Honduras.
Light to gentle trades are noted across the basin with moderate
to fresh winds north of Colombia. Seas range 2-4 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will continue to move north away from
the area this weekend but large swell associated with Paulette
will affect the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend.
Rene has weakened to a tropical depression this morning well east
of the area. Tropical Depression Rene is not expected to
strengthen but could approach areas north and east of the Leeward
Islands toward the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
Paulette and Rene.

High pressure continues to dominate most of the basin outside of
the tropical systems. Isolated thunderstorms are moving eastward
toward the Lesser Antilles. Showers are also moving across the
Canary Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin,
with fresh to strong winds off the Western Sahara coast. Seas
range 4-8 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near
28.5N 59.1W this evening, move to 29.5N 61.4W Sun morning, 30.8N
63.6W Sun evening, 32.4N 64.8W Mon morning, 34.2N 64.2W Mon
evening, and 35.8N 61.5W Tue morning. Large swell associated with
Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and
continue to build seas this weekend into early next week.
Tropical Depression Nineteen has now moved west of the area into
the Gulf of Mexico this morning and its impacts will continue to
move away from the area into early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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688
AXNT20 KNHC 131053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.0N 84.0W at 13/0900 UTC
or 105 nm W of Port Charlotte Florida moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 23N- 28N between 80W-
85W. The center of Sally will move over the southeastern and
eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf
Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
Further strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 29.4N 60.8W at 13/0900 UTC or
270 nm SE of Bermuda moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 28N-31N between 58W-64W. The center of
Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.
Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 26.2N 47.1W at 13/0900
UTC or 1010 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
showers amd tstms are noted from 24N-28N between 44W-49W. On
Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast
to become a remnant low on Monday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.2N 35.5W at
13/0900 UTC or 1515 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-15N between 32W-46W.
Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and
the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and
it could become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo
Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave with axis along
26W, south of 21N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N-19N between 21W-32W. Environmental conditions
support some additional development, and a tropical depression
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
two or three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
By mid-week, upper-level winds should become less conducive for
development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC
waters. The wave's axis extends along 90W and south of 19N,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 20N-18N between 90W-95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 12N31W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either
sides of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Sally.

A surface trough extends from 26N94W to 22N92W with scattered
showers in the vicinity. Scatterometer data showed moderate to
fresh winds north of 26N and west of 93W, while light to gentle
winds prevail south of 26N between 86W-93W. Seas are 4-6 ft in
this region based on recent buoy observations.

Sally will move to 27.7N 85.4W this afternoon, 28.3N 87.2W
Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.7N 88.7W Mon
afternoon, 29.2N 89.7W Tue morning, 30.1N 90.0W Tue afternoon, and
weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 90.0W Wed morning. Sally
will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 32.8N
88.6W early Thu. Otherwise, the surface trough over the western
Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the middle of next week with
low chance of tropical cyclone formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue as Hurricane Paulette continue to move
northwest and then northeast over the north- central Atlantic
waters. Surface ridging will establish over the SW Atlantic waters
afterwards, resulting in moderate to fresh trades in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Moderate southeast winds are expected to
continue in the NW basin through Tue. Otherwise, large swell
associated with current Tropical Depression Twenty is forecast to
affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by
the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression
Twenty, and the active tropical wave moving across the basin.

Outside of the tropical systems named above, light to gentle
winds prevail across the Atlantic waters S of 20N and W of 35W.
Seas in this area are generally 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, swell associated
with Paulette has spread across much of the region W of 50W, with
seas 8 ft or greater in the offshore waters as far as 70W.

Paulette will move to 30.2N 62.5W this afternoon, 31.8N 64.4W Mon
morning, 34.0N 65.0W Mon afternoon, 35.9N 62.4W Tue morning,
37.8N 57.9W Tue afternoon, and 39.3N 54.0W Wed morning. Paulette
will change little in intensity as it moves near 42.0N 46.0W early
Thu. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread westward
across the offshore waters and continue to build seas today into
early next week.

$$
Torres/Ramos
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215
AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.5N 84.9W at 13/1500 UTC
or 115 nm W of St. Petersburg Florida moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant and 210 nm SE quad. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm NE quad
and 240 nm SE quad. The center of Sally will move over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, then turn to
the north-northwest Monday night as it approaches the north-
central Gulf Coast within the Hurricane Warning area. Sally is
expected to move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Further strengthening is expected over
the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane
on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before
landfall Monday night. A dangerous storm surge is expected for
coastal portions of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Sally is expected to be
a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding due
to very heavy rainfall for the central Gulf Coast Monday through
the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 29.9N 61.9W at 13/1500 UTC or
210 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt
with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the northern
semicircle and SW quadrant, and within 60 nm SE quad. The center
of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.
Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late
Monday through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 26.8N 47.6W at 13/1500
UTC or 1000 nm NE of the northern Leeward Islands moving NW at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the
center in the eastern semicircle. Rene is forecast to continue
weakening and become a remnant low on Monday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.3N 36.4W at
13/1500 UTC or 755 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends out 270 nm from the
center in the southern semicircle and 180 nm NW quadrant. A
motion to the west or west-northwest is expected to continue
through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northwest Tuesday
night or Wednesday. Strengthening is expected, and the system is
forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE...

A 1009 mb low along a tropical wave is located near 17N27W, or
about 100 nm west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The
low is moving to the WNW at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N-20N between 23W-31W. Although the low's
circulation appears somewhat elongated, the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development during the next day or so while the system
moves toward the NNW at 5 to 10 kt, and a tropical depression is
likely to form before it moves over colder waters and into an
area of strong upper-level winds by Tuesday. This system has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 27W is discussed in the Special Features
section above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W
to a 1009 mb low near 17N27W to 15N32W. The monsoon trough
continues from 10N40W to 09N43W to 11N49W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Special Features section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-13N
between 40W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is
currently producing seas to 14 ft near its center. Peak seas
associated with Sally are forecast to increase to near 24 ft by
Monday morning as it strengthens to a hurricane over the north
central Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section
above for more details on Tropical Storm Sally.

Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low near 25N93W is along a surface trough
that extends from 27N95W to 22N89W. Scattered showers and tstorms
cover much of the western Gulf of Mexico west of 92W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows moderate winds across the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico, with fresh NE winds north of 28N near the coast
of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane
near 28.5N 88W Mon morning, then move inland to near 30N90W Tue
morning and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.3N 90.5W Tue
evening. Sally will be near 31.5N 90W Wed morning, then
weaken to a tropical depression over Mississippi early Thu.
Elsewhere, the surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico
will move southwest through mid-week, with a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and tstorms seen over western Cuba are more
due to the daytime heating than to Tropical Storm Sally, which
is located well north of the basin over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico. The east Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered strong convection over the SW Caribbean south of 14N.
This convection is being enhanced by an upper-level low over
the SW Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate
trade winds across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over
the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin
through Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the
Caribbean Sea during the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression
Twenty, and the 1009 mb low west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Scattered gusty showers and tstorms are currently seen within 60
nm of the east coasts of Florida and Georgia. This activity is
associated with the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally,
which is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation
of Sally is still producing fresh SE winds offshore of Florida,
as shown by a recent ASCAT pass. Farther east, a tail of moisture
extending well southwestward from Hurricane Paulette is enhancing
scattered showers from the SW Bahamas to 27N between 66W-73W.
However, winds in that area are gentle.

Hurricane Paulette will move to near 33N65W Mon morning, 37N60W
Tue morning, and 41N49W Wed morning. Large swell associated with
Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and
continue to build seas early this week. Tropical Depression
Twenty will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13N38W this
evening, then strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 45W Tue
morning, then move to near 16N48W Wed morning and 19N51W Thu
morning.

$$
Hagen
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020
AXNT20 KNHC 141101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 28.3N 87.3W at 14/0900 UTC
or 150 nm SE of Biloxi, Mississippi moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is N of 27N E of 88W. Scattered moderate
convection in bands is elsewhere N of 23N E of 89W. The center
of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today,
and approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward,
Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the
northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Strengthening is expected
over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a
hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible
before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 32.3N 64.7W at 14/0900 UTC
or 0 nm E of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80
kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted N
of 29N between 61W and 67W. The eye of Paulette will continue to
pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours, followed by
passage of the southern portion of the eyewall. Additional
strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and
moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.4N 48.3W at 14/0900
UTC or 970 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving W at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is from 26N to 29N between 44W and 49W. A faster
motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to
begin later today and continue through dissipation. Weakening is
forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later
today, and dissipate by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...T.S. TEDDY...

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.4N 40.4W at 14/0900 UTC
or 960 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 40W-45W.
Scattered moderate convection in bands is elsewhere from 07N-15N
between 35W-48W. A continued west-northwestward motion is
expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the
northwest by mid-week. Additional strengthening is anticipated,
and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY-ONE...

Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 18.5N 28.3W at
14/0900 UTC or 290 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at
5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N to 24N between 21W and 32W. Some
slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the
depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that
time. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not
sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to the 1009 mb low near 18N28W to 14N34W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Special Features section,
scattered showers are noted along the remainder of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is
currently producing seas to near 17 ft near its center. Sally is
expected to strengthens to a hurricane over the north central
Gulf today. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N90W to 22N94W.
Scattered showers are noted west of 94W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is also noted in the SW Gulf from 23N-
27N between 94W to the southeast coast of Texas and Mexico.
Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, the surface trough and low over
the western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through
the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean south of
14N. This activity is enhanced by an upper-level low over the SW
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over
the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through
Tue. Large swell associated with Twenty is forecast to affect
the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details
on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm
Teddy, and Tropical Depression Twenty-One west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Elsewhere, scattered showers are currently noted within 120 nm
of the east coast of Florida. This activity is associated with
the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally, which is located
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the tropical
systems, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning. Tropical
Storm Teddy will move to 13.8N 42.4W this afternoon, 14.3N 44.8W
Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 46.7W Tue
afternoon, 15.9N 48.2W Wed morning, 16.9N 49.5W Wed afternoon,
and 18.3N 50.8W Thu morning. Teddy will change little in
intensity as it moves near 21.0N 53.1W early Fri.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.6N 28.6W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical
depression near 20.5N 29.6W Tue morning, move to 21.3N 30.9W Tue
afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.9N 32.8W Wed
morning, 22.4N 34.8W Wed afternoon, and 22.8N 36.9W Thu morning.
Twenty-One will change little in intensity as it moves near
23.4N 41.0W early Fri.

$$
Torres/Ramos
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570
AXNT20 KNHC 191050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.0N 92.5W at 19/0900 UTC
or 250 nm E of mouth of The Rio Grande moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. The hazards to the public and property will be: storm
surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 24.9N 58.2W at
19/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 200 nm
of the center in the S semicircle. TEDDY will be approaching
Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Large swells are affecting
the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas. The
large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern coast of the
United States of America later today. It is likely for these
swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more
details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 13.1N 36.9W at 19/0900
UTC or 770 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm of the center in
the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is 1008 mb located near 37N
31W...or just S of the western Azores this morning. The cyclone is
forecast to move south for the next day or two then stall over the
relatively warm waters several hundred miles S of the Azores. The
cyclone could then obtain tropical or subtropical characteristics
by early next week will it remains nearly stationary. There is a
medium chance of tropical or subtropical formation in the next 48
hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with
this system, see High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N20W, and to 15N24W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to 400 nm
of the monsoon trough between 14W and 18W. Also, scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 18W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida along
27N, to the western coast of Florida along 26N, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 25N87W. No significant deep convective precipitation
is associated with the cold front.

Tropical Storm Beta near 26.0N 92.5W 996 mb at 5 AM EDT moving N
at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Beta will move
to 26.6N 92.6W this afternoon, 26.9N 93.4W Sun morning, then
strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 94.3W Sun afternoon,
Hurricane Beta will be near 27.4N 95.2W Mon morning, 27.7N 95.9W
Mon afternoon, and 28.1N 96.3W Tue morning. Beta will weaken to a
tropical storm offshore the Texas coast early Wed A cold front
will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing
fresh to strong NE winds into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is moving through the area that
extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted
in Cuba. Isolated moderate to strong convection covers areas from
Honduras to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between
Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The
comparatively strongest convective precipitation is occurring in
parts of Belize and northern Guatemala, and in the western
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 14N63W to a 1010 mb low pressure
near 13N67W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 120 nm
on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 14N southward from 73W
westward.

Tropical Storm Wilfred near 13.1N 36.9W 1007 mb at 5
AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt. Wilfred will move to 13.8N 39.0W this afternoon, 14.8N 41.7W
Sun morning, 15.8N 44.4W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a tropical
depression near 16.5N 46.8W Mon morning. Tropical Depression
Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low and move to 16.8N
48.6W Mon afternoon, then dissipate Tue morning. Long period
northeasterly swell from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from
the area in the Central Atlantic, will continue to impact tropical
Atlantic waters through early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha moved inland over Portugal overnight
and will have no more impact on Atlantic waters.

A nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure center is located near
20N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the SW of the center

A cold front has emerged off the SE US coast and stretches from
31N74W to 26N81W. Behind this front, strong NE winds are being
observed.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy near 24.9N 58.2W 952 mb at
5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts
135 kt. Teddy will move to 26.3N 59.5W this afternoon, 28.0N
61.2W Sun morning, 29.5N 62.2W Sun afternoon, 31.6N 61.9W Mon
morning, 35.2N 61.1W Mon afternoon, and 39.2N 61.3W Tue morning.
Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A
strong cold front that moved off the coast of Georgia and the
Carolinas overnight will move SE and weaken, then stall early next
week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near
gale force winds NE are anticipated across a broad area of
Atlantic waters N of 25N from later today through Mon. Tropical
Storm Wilfred in the tropical Atlantic is expected to weaken and
dissipate before reaching the area early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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529
AXNT20 KNHC 201046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 27.0N
92.7W at 20/0900 UTC or 180 nm SE of Galveston Texas moving WNW at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are
currently 24 ft. Isolated moderate to strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. A slow WNW motion
is expected through Mon night before Beta should stall or begin
to turn NNW then NNE. The track brings Beta to the Texas coast
late Mon or Mon night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas
coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 28.0N 62.0W at 20/0900 UTC or
300 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently 55 ft. Scattered
to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm of the center, except 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Teddy is
expected to turn toward the north tonight followed by a faster
northward motion later on Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Teddy will pass just east of Bermuda Monday morning. A
weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Teddy has a very
large wind field. Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 28.0N 62.0W at 20/0900 UTC or
300 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm of the
center, but there is no convection in the SW quadrant. Wilfred
will continue moving toward the WNW or W for the next couple of
days until it dissipates by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered southwest of the
Azores near 35N29W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. The low is
drifting southward. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward
for the next day or so and then begin moving eastward in a couple
of days. There is a medium chance the cyclone could reacquire
tropical or subtropical characteristics early this week. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N70W to a 1012 mb low near 29N79W to
28N81W. To the north of the low and behind the cold front N and NE
gales will prevail through early Mon morning. This low is
producing a small area of thunderstorms near the central Florida
coast, and will likely move inland later today. Significant
development of this low is not anticipated. Seas are currently
12-18 ft in this area and are forecast to build to 15-22 ft by
tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along
23W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 16N-20N between 18W-24W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 13N28W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen well south of the monsoon trough along the west coast of
Africa from 06N-11N between 12W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to 27N84W, then
becomes stationary to 27W88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is near the west part of the stationary front from 27N-
29N between 87W-89W. Behind the front, strong NE winds are
occurring. Surface troughing over the Bay of Campeche is leading
to scattered moderate showers.

In addition to Tropical Storm Beta over the NW Gulf, the
aforementioned front will move through the northeast Gulf
into Mon, bringing strong NE winds through early week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
NW Venezuela to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted near
the eastern portion of this trough over the Leeward Islands.
Fairly dry conditions are noted elsewhere except for some showers
seen near the south coast of Cuba. Large, long period northerly
swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic is
penetrating into the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage
through the Leeward Islands, but is also active just outside of
the Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is
normally north of the region has been displaced by the tropical
cyclone activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and slight seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the
Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the
Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round
of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid week.
Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more
information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
the gales east of northern Florida, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical
Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along
the front mentioned above in the Special Features section,
mainly north of 28N and west of 77W. To the SE of that front,
a weakening surface trough extends from 32N68W to 25N77W. Isolated
showers and gentle winds are near this boundary. Gentle winds
generally prevail south of the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section and west of 70W.

Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone activity over the past
several days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.

Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The
cold front mentioned in the Special Features section above will
move SE across the Florida Peninsula and the west Atlantic while
weakening, then stall Tue from near Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Behind the front, gale conditions are expected N of 28N
through tonight. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane
Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into mid week.

$$
KONARIK
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786
AXNT20 KNHC 201723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 27.2N
93.0W at 20/1500 UTC or 180 NM SE of Galveston, Texas moving WNW
at 3 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 100 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Also,
further east, scattered moderate convection is noted north of
24N-29N between 86W-90W. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of
Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night, and
remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy near 28.3N 62.8W 964 mb at 20/1500 UTC OR 300 nm
SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt.
Peak seas are 42 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is 90 nm in the northern semicircle. Teddy will change
little in intensity as it moves to 53.0N 53.0W early Thu. On the
forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the
center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy
should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.


Tropical Depression Wilfred near 15.7N 44.2W 1008 mb at 20/1500
UTC or 1340 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 17 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted 80 nm in the northern semicircle. On the
forecast, Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading
toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until
dissipation. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered south of the Azores
near 35N29W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The low is
drifting southward. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward
for the next day or so and then begin moving eastward in a couple
of days. There is a medium chance the cyclone could reacquire
tropical or subtropical characteristics early this week. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to a 1012 mb low near 27N80W to
27N83W. This low is producing an area of thunderstorms near the
central Florida coast from 27N-29N. Significant development of
this low is not anticipated. This weak low pressure off the FL
coast and a cold front moving SE through the waters will lead to
Gale conditions N of 28N through tonight. Long period swell
generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact
the waters into mid-week. Seas are currently 12-18 ft in this
area and are forecast to build to 17-20 ft in the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 21W
from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 14N-20N between 16W-24W.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds noted west side of the wave
north of 14N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 15N22W to 12N28W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 14N-18N and well south of the monsoon trough along
the west coast of Africa from 06N-11N between 14W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to 27N80W, then
becomes stationary to 27W83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is north of the front from 27N-29N between 87W-89W.
Behind the front, strong NE winds are occurring. Scattered
moderate showers are noted south of 21N in the Bay of Campeche
between 90W-95W.

In addition to Tropical Storm Beta over the NW Gulf, the
aforementioned front will move across the eastern half of the
Gulf into Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and buildings seas will
Follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
NW Venezuela to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted near
the Leeward Islands and scattered thunderstorms in the southern
portion of the trough. Fairly dry conditions are noted elsewhere
except for some showers seen near the coastal areas of Venezuela
and Colombia. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted near 11N73W with
the monsoon trough extending westward across Panama and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of
the low and in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Large, long period
northerly swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic
is penetrating the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage through
the Leeward Islands, but is also active just outside of the
Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is normally
north of the region has been displaced by the tropical cyclone
activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and slight seas elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the
Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the
Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round
of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid-week.
Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more
information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
the gales east of northern Florida, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical
Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Scattered moderate convection is noted along the stationary front
mentioned above in the Special Features section, mainly north of
27N and west of 72W. To the SE of that front, a weakening surface
trough extends from 29N69W to 26N77W in the northern Bahamas.
Scattered showers and gentle winds are near this boundary. Gentle
winds generally prevail south of the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section and west of 70W and fresh to strong
north of 29N west of 80W.

Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone activity over the past several
days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.


Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The
cold front mentioned in the Special Features section above will
move SE across the Florida Peninsula and the west Atlantic while
weakening, then stall Tue from near Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Behind the front, gale conditions are expected N of 28N
through tonight. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane
Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into mid-week.

$$
Torres
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725
AXNT20 KNHC 211022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.7N 95.1W at 21/0900 UTC
or 80 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving W at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 360 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and 120 nm of the
center in the SW semicircle. Peak seas are currently 21 ft.
Although Beta has been moving W overnight, a WNW motion is
expected to resume today, bringing landfall tonight along the
middle Texas coast. Once inland, Beta will stall Tue then turn
northeast Tue night and Wed, bringing it into Louisiana. Little
change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 30.3N 63.2W at 21/0900 UTC or
140 nm SE of Bermuda moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
extends outward from the center 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 240 nm
in the NW quadrant, and 90 nm in the W semicircle. A general NNW
or N motion is expected through Tue, taking Teddy east then
northeast of Bermuda today. Teddy is forecast to be approaching
Nova Scotia Tue night or Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred nm south
of the Azores and is producing a small area of moderate convection
just SE of the center. The system will move east over the next
couple of days. The cyclone has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front
extends from 31N68W to Miami Florida. Behind this front, a wide
area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales ongoing N of 28N
between 68W and 75W. These gales should subside slightly later
this morning, but strong winds and rough seas, with wave heights
of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from along
28W S of 20N. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is from 14N-21N between 21W-25W. No significant
convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a 1012 mb low in the Cabo Verde Islands near
17N23W to 13N32W. The ITCZ is from 13N32W to 15N41W. No
significant convection is occurring along these features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary cold front extends from south of Naples
Florida to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
front. Strong to near gale NE and E winds will prevail N of the
front over the NE Gulf this morning, before diminishing to 20 to
25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S
across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong
NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Somewhat drier air is seen over the central Caribbean, where
upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean
through today between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands.
Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages for
the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check local
marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west
Atlantic.

The remnants of Wilfred are centered near 16N49W this morning and
are producing scattered moderate convection within about 60 nm of
the center. These remnants should fully dissipate later today.

Scattered moderate convection associated with a cold front
depicted in the Special Features section above is present from 24N
to 28N between 71W and the Florida coast. Light to gentle winds
are noted south of 25N and west of 72W. To the east, a 1018 mb
high is near 28N38W.

Hurricane Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today then move
northward toward Atlantic Canada, becoming extratropical by
Wed morning. A cold front moving SE through the waters will lead
to Gale conditions N of 27N this morning. Long period swell
generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact
the waters into late week.

$$
KONARIK
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306
AXNT20 KNHC 221713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Beta is centered near 28.9N 96.7W at 22/01500
UTC or 13 nm ENE of Victoria Texas moving NE at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection
extends out 150 nm from the center in the NE semicircle. A slow
motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon
and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with
increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over
southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and
Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Little change in
strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated
through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 39.6N 63.7W at 22/1500 UTC or
300 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection
extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern
semicircle...and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on
Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night
and east of Labrador on Thursday. Although some weakening is
likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong
post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 35.0N 22.3W at 22/1500
UTC or 291 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants.
An east to east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday.
A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast
then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A
southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low within the next day or so. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located along 21W S of 16N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between
20W-24W.

A weak tropical wave extends along 33W S of 20N, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 06N27W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Depression Beta inland over Texas.

As of 22/1500 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern
and central Gulf from 22N80W to 30N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. North of the front over
the NE Gulf, strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually
decrease to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In
the far western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N.
Impacts from Beta will remain confined to nearshore coastal
waters of Texas and Louisiana. A stationary front extending from
the north-central Gulf to western Cuba will move back northward
on Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure may form along this
frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is Cuba due to the stationary
front.
Mainly fair weather conditions prevail elsewhere across the
basin
under the influence of mid level high supporting dry air
subsidence. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the
Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Swell associated with Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as
well as generated by a cold front currently extending along
22N-23N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages
beginning tonight and continuing through at least Thu night.
Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin
through the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to
fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N64W to 22N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Strong NE winds
area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas.
Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A
weak 1011 mb low near 14N51W is along a NE-SW surface trough
that
extends from 17N47W to 12N53W. Another surface trough is from
23N42W to 18N45W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized
convection resides in the vicinity of these features from
11N-17N
between 42W-48W.

Swell generated by Teddy and a cold front that is slowing over
the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters
through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high
pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to
strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast
into tonight.

$$
Formosa
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368
AXNT20 KNHC 231731 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1731 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy is centered near 46.0N 61.3W at
23/01500 UTC or 130 nm NE of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNE at
23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 480 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant and 240 nm in the NW quadrant. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from
your local weather office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A weak Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N26W. No significant convection is occurring
along this trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Beta are located in southeast Texas. Winds and
seas have diminished on Gulf waters, and all convection is now
inland.

The tail end of a stationary front extends from Cuba near 22N80W
to 24N86W to the SE coast of Louisiana near 29N91W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front.

The stationary front from the Central to SE Gulf will remain
over the southeast Gulf and gradually weaken through the week.
Fresh E winds to the east of this front will gradually diminish
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 19N-21N between 62W-66W.

Scattered moderate convection associated with the Pacific
monsoon trough is occurring off the Panama and Colombia coasts,
S of 14N.

The upper level wind flow that is in the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward is moving away from an upper level ridge, and toward an
inverted trough. The trough is in the western sections of the
Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan Peninsula toward northern
sections of Colombia.

Northerly swell previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and an
early season cold front in the western Atlantic has arrived in
Atlantic passages and will continue into Thu night. Mainly
gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through
the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to fresh
winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of Paulette are located between the Azores and
Canary Islands and should diminish in a day or two as a cold
front absorbs Paulette.

A stationary front extends from the W Atlantic near 31N56W to
21N70W to Cuba near 21N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the front.

A surface trough is noted from 21N48W to 14N55W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

Over the W Atlantic, swell previously generated by Hurricane
Teddy and a cold front that moved through at the start of the
week will only gradually subside by Thu night. Generally gentle
to moderate easterly winds can be expected for the remainder of
the week.

$$ Formosa
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686
AXNT20 KNHC 241714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
1805 UTC EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N31W. The ITCZ begins near 10N38W to
06N45W, then continues from 05N46W to the coast of Venezuela
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of
the monsoon trough from 03N-09N between 18W-32W. Scattered
showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, A cold front stretches from the Alabama coast near
30N88W to 25N94W. A secondary cold front is pushing
southeastward from the Mississippi coast near 31N89W to 27N96W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 40 nm of either
front. A pre-frontal trough is from 28N87W to 20N93W with
showers along it. Moderate south-southeasterly winds in the
eastern Gulf ahead of the pre-frontal trough with gentle to
moderate northerly winds in the NW Gulf. Light winds continue in
the Bay of Campeche with seas 3-6 ft.

A cold front extending from SW Alabama will dissipate over the
NE Gulf waters just west of the Florida Big Bend by Fri.
Moderate to fresh SSE winds ahead of the front will diminish
tonight as the front gradually weakens. Light to gentle variable
winds will dominate the basin afterwards through Mon. Otherwise,
the next cold front is forecast to move off the coast of Texas
and Alabama by Mon evening with moderate to fresh N winds behind
it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the NW Caribbean from the coast of
western Cuba near 22N81W to the Yucatan near 20N88W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in this area of the basin N of 19N
between 79W-87W. A trough off the eastern Puerto Rico coast is
giving way to thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed across the
Lesser Antilles.

The monsoon trough begins north of the Colombian coast near
12N73W to the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N84W. A 1010
mb low is along the monsoon trough near 11N80W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon trough
northward toward Jamaica, from 09N-19N between 73W-82W. Moderate
trades stretch across the south-central Caribbean with light to
gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 4-7 ft in the central
Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

Large northerly swell N and NE of the Bahamas associated with a
frontal system over the SW N Atlantic waters will gradually
subside through this evening. Surface high pressure building N
of the area will support gentle to moderate return flow across
the area through Fri evening. The remnants of the front will
move into the E offshores waters N of 22N on Fri night,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the NE waters through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the Atlantic from a 1016 mb low
near 30N56W to a 1013 mb low near 24N62W, then stretches to the
northern Hispaniola coast near 20N70W. The front stalls from
20N70W to the eastern Cuban coast near 22N77W. A trough
stretches from near 18N65W to 22N63W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the front and trough from
18N-25N between 59W-66W. Scattered moderate convection is within
200 nm along the rest of the cold front. A trough continues to
linger east of the Lesser Antilles from 22N50W to 16N59W with
scattered moderate convection within 100 nm of the trough.
Another trough stretches from 33N50W to 27N45W with isolated
thunderstorms along it.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are north of the front with
moderate southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 25N. Moderate
easterly winds are off the east coast of Florida and the
Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with ridging
stretching across the rest of the basin. Seas 8-11 ft continue
across the western Atlantic toward the Greater Antilles with 5-8
ft in the central Atlantic.

Large northerly swell N and NE of the Bahamas associated with a
frontal system over the SW N Atlantic waters will gradually
subside through this evening. Surface high pressure building N
of the area will support gentle to moderate return flow across
the area through Fri evening. The remnants of the front will
move into the E offshores waters N of 22N on Fri night,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the NE waters through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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096
AXNT20 KNHC 251045 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 34W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis from 09N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
11N15W to 10N20W to 09N30W to 09N37W. The ITCZ is from 08N40W to
06N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
16N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from NW Florida to 25N90W. The basin is
mostly devoid of shower activity except south of 22N in the Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the
front in the NE Gulf, and moderate NW winds in the northern Gulf
behind the front. Light winds continue in the Bay of Campeche.

The cold front is expected to weaken and dissipate in the NE
Gulf today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will diminish
this morning as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Gale force winds are possible west
of the front near Veracruz on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to
Cuba, remnants of an Atlantic cold front. The eastern extension
of a monsoon trough in the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 10N84W to
09N78W to 10N73W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted in the western Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 81W
and 89W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the
coast of Colombia, within 90 nm of 12N76W. Isolated showers
elsewhere across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through Tue, becoming fresh to strong near the coast
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds expected elsewhere across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the Atlantic from 32N50W to
22N63W, becoming a surface trough from 22N63W to 19N70W, across
the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. 1023 mb high pressure is
centered near 33N63W, with a ridge across the northern waters
between the stationary front and southeast U.S. coast. Scattered
moderate convection is within 75 nm ahead of the stationary
front, with isolated showers elsewhere, mainly near the front.
High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with few showers
except associated with tropical waves or the convergence zone.

High pressure building north of the area will support gentle to
moderate winds across the region through tonight. A surface
trough will move westward north of the Greater Antilles this
weekend, then weaken early next week.

$$
Mundell
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565
AXNT20 KNHC 261010 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
11N between 32W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 07N to 10N between 57W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
15N17W to 12N41W. The ITCZ is from 12N44W to 08N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 100 nm of the coast of Africa from
07N to 15N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low centered over the Carolinas extends a trough southwestward
into northern Florida. The northern Gulf is mostly devoid of
shower activity north of 25N. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is in the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N to 24N
between 90W and 95W. Scatterometer data, ship and buoy
observations show light to gentle wind speeds over the basin.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon evening.
Strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the
basin, with gale force winds possible west of the front along
the coast of Mexico Mon night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest TPW imagery shows high moisture content covers the NW
Caribbean west of a line from central Cuba to northern Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from
western Cuba to Belize. Isolated showers prevail elsewhere
across the basin. Scatterometer data and ship obs show moderate
trade winds in the central Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through early Sun, becoming fresh to strong by Wed.
Moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 32N48W to 25N58W, and
a surface trough is evident from satellite and scatterometer
data from 27N61W southward to near Puerto Rico. A weak cyclonic
circulation associated with the trough is centered near 26N65W.
Active convection that moved eastward off the Florida peninsula
has mostly dissipated, but a few showers remain from 23N to 28N
between 76W and 79W in the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a large
upper-level low centered near 26N34W is supporting scattered
showers over a large area between 24W and 35W, north of 15N.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected NE of the Bahamas this
weekend as the surface trough moves west across the western
Atlantic. A cold front will move east of Florida on Wed.

$$
Mundell
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101
AXNT20 KNHC 261723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the
analysis along 23W from 20N southward, moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm E of the wave axis
from 05N-16N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm either
side of the wave axis from 09N-11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
either side of the wave axis from 05N-11N. An enhancement of
showers and tstorms is possible tonight into Sun near Trinidad
and the SE Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
18N16W to 18N20W, where there is a break in the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough resumes at 09N21W to 10N31W to 11N38W. The
ITCZ is from 09N46W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of the monsoon trough from 07N-09N between 31W-37W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A mid
to upper-level trough is over east Texas. A NE-SW oriented
surface trough stretches from the central Gulf of Mexico near
25N90W to Veracruz Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 19N-26.5N between 88W-97W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are also from 24.5N-27.5N between 84W-88W. ASCAT data
shows mostly gentle wind speeds across the Gulf of Mexico, with
moderate S winds extending offshore near the Mouth of the Rio
Grande River.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf
late Mon afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong northerly
winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with gale
force winds possible west of the front over some areas of the
western Gulf from Mon night through Tue night. High pressure
behind the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf
through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen this afternoon in
the NW Caribbean from 20N to the Yucatan Channel between 82W-87W,
including the south coast of western Cuba. Farther south in the
SW Caribbean, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 10N-14N between
76W-84W, including the east coast of Nicaragua. Weak/broad upper-
level cyclonic flow over the south-central Caribbean is resulting
in isolated showers and tstorms across portions of the central
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen
over portions of the Leeward Islands. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
trades elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through early Sun, becoming fresh to strong by Wed.
Moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic from 24N-32N between 72W-79W, TPW
imagery shows abundant moisture. Upper-level diffluence is in
this area. A surface trough has been added to the map as of
1500 UTC from 31N77W to 27N79.5W. As a result of these features,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 24N-29N between 74.5W-78.5W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 29N-32N between 72W-77W. Fresh to strong S to
SW winds are in this convection between 72W and the surface
trough.

A 1017 mb surface low near 25N66W is along a N-S oriented trough
from 20N65W to 28N66W. The low shows up well in the latest ASCAT
data. Strong E winds are north of the low from 27N-29N between
63.5W-66W. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of low.
A small mid to upper-level trough just NE of the Leeward Islands
is giving way to an area of scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection from 19N-23N between 56W-59W. Additional
showers and tstorms are seen from 14N-19N between 54W-58W. A
surface trough extends from 30N48W to 23N51W with isolated
showers. Fresh NE winds are seen from 29.5N-32N between 50W-53W.

A large upper-level low centered near 26N35W is part of a
Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) with axis from 31N32W
to 26N35W to 17N43W to Trinidad to the south-central Caribbean.
As a result of the upper-trough, scattered showers and isolated
tstorms cover much of the area from 16N-31N between 25W-38W. A
surface trough is from 18N37W to 09N39W. Scattered showers are
near the trough axis. In the far E Atlantic, strong N to NE winds
are near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and
Western Sahara.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast
of the Bahamas this weekend as a surface trough moves across the
western Atlantic. A cold front will move east of Florida on Wed,
then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N75W to South
Florida Wed night.

$$
Hagen
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271
AXNT20 KNHC 271039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 27W from 02N-19N, is moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 07N between 25W-
30W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 01N-16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
08N-16N between 43W-50W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-16N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of
east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N29W to 09N36W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N50W to the coast of Guyana near
07N58W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ
between 30W-38W and between 51W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin. A surface trough is
analyzed over the southwest Gulf from 22N91W to 19N92W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails south of 25N between 88W-95W.
Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate winds across the
basin.

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then
move SE across the Gulf waters through the week. In the wake of
the front, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half
of the basin, with gale force winds possible over the
southwestern Gulf on Tue-Wed. High pressure behind the front will
slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands. Please,
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Scattered showers are noted across the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean
north of Colombia and over the Bay of Honduras, while moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean today, becoming fresh to strong by mid-week. Moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are analyzed over the Atlantic. Please see the
section above for details.

Over the western Atlantic, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near
27N69W. A surface trough extends from 29N69W to the low to 25N67W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough/low. To the east,
another surface trough is from 30N54W to 24N53W with scattered
showers. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 17N40W with trough
extending from 19N39W to the low to 14N41W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high
centered just NE of the Azores. This high, combined with lower
pressures over W Africa is resulting in strong N-NE winds near the
Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast of
the Bahamas today. A cold front will move over the northwest
part of the area by mid-week, then begin to weaken as it reaches
from near 31N75W to South Florida by Wed night and from 31N73W to
near western Cuba by late Thu. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

$$
ERA
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029
AXNT20 KNHC 271654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale force northerly winds are
currently occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco from
30N-31.5N, between 10W-11.5W in the marine zone Agadir, according
to a set of ASCAT passes from around 27/1000 UTC. A gale warning
is currently posted there from Meteo France. The gale warning
will continue in Agadir until Monday at 28/0900 UTC. Please see
the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf Mon afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are
expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf
of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are
expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue
morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 29W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave
axis from 05N-10N.

A tropical wave axis is along 49W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered showers are along and within 240 nm E of the wave
axis from 08.5N-13N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 62/63W from
03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from
08N-16.5N, and is currently affecting the Windward Islands.
Convection over the northern Leeward Islands north of 16.5N is
related to a nearby upper-level trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 16N23W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 10N41W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N51W to 09N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 22W and the west
coast of Africa. Scattered showers are within 300 nm S of the
ITCZ between 35W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough oriented NE-SW is located over the northwest
Gulf of Mexico. East of this trough, mid-level SW winds are
transporting moist air from the Bay of Campeche to the central
and NE Gulf. As a result, a cluster of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 25N-28.5N between
87W-90W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere
within the area enclosed by the points 18.5N93W to 28N82W to
31N82W to 31N87W to 21N97.5W to 18.5N93W. Recent ASCAT data
depicts gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to
locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by
Mon afternoon, then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters
Wed and the Straits of Florida Wed evening. Gale force winds
are expected over portions of the west-central and SW Gulf of
Mexico Tue and Tue night. See Special Features section above
for details on the gale warning. Outside the gale area, strong
northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin
behind the front. High pressure behind the front will slide
eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between
75W-82W. Scattered showers are noted across the central
Caribbean. A small upper-level trough is enhancing scattered
moderate isolated strong convection north of 17N and east of 64W,
including the northernmost Leeward Islands. ASCAT data depicts
moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of
Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also moving through
the Lesser Antilles east of the wave axis that is along 62/63W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong speeds by Wed. Mainly winds at
moderate speeds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds
over the northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave over the far
eastern Caribbean will move across the rest of the eastern
Caribbean through Mon evening, then across the central Caribbean
Tue through early Wed and across the western Caribbean Thu and
Thu night. Scattered showers and tstorms will follow in behind
the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near
28N69W. A surface trough extends from 30N70W to the low to
25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N
between 64W-69W. To the east, another surface trough is from
31N55W to 23N54W with isolated showers. A stationary front is
from 32N48W to 30N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
30N-32N between 51.5W-54W. A surface trough extends from 21N40W
to 13N42W with scattered showers near the trough. Scattered
showers are seen from 23N-30N between 27W-36W due to an
upper-level low that is centered near 26N35W. Strong N-NE winds
are noted in the E Atlantic from 19N-29N, east of 26W, and from
29N-32N, east of 19W, with gale force winds near the coast of
Morocco.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast of the Bahamas
today. A cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue
night and move over the northwest part of the area on Wed. The
cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W
to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W
to the Straits of Florida by late Thu. Scattered showers and
tstorms are expected ahead of the front.

$$
Hagen
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644
AXNT20 KNHC 281759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf today, then reach the
SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the front,
gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the west-
central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of
95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-13 ft within the gale area
by Tue morning. These conditions are expected to dissipate by
early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 34W from 02N-18N, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 31W-
36W.

A tropical wave axis is along 54W from 04N-18N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between
51W-57W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 66W from
03N-18N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted from 11N-17N between 63W-69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 09N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 11N50W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 11N57W to 10N63W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
showers are noted along the boundary and east of 29W, and about
200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf of Mexico...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf.

A mid-level trough is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico
from the Florida Panhandle to southern Texas. East of this
trough, mid-level SW winds are transporting moist air from the
Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, scattered
moderate convection is noted across the south-central and the
northeast portion of the basin along 23N and east of 90W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted near the western Gulf
coast. Recent ASCAT data depicts light to gentle winds over the
eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh S winds over the
central and western portions.

In the forecast, the strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf
this afternoon, then reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and
the Straits of Florida by Wed evening. In the wake of the front,
strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the
basin, with gale force winds expected west of 95W on Tue. A
secondary front will drop south to the northern Gulf early on Fri
and reach the far southwestern Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high
pressure will build in behind this front. The pressure gradient
between the front and a tropical wave that will approach the
western Caribbean is expected to freshen the northeast winds over
most of the southeastern Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the E Caribbean. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, the
east Pacific monsoon trough and 1009 mb low north of Colombia is
enhancing scattered showers S of 12N and west of 75W. ASCAT data
depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean
north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to
moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also noted
near the Lesser Antilles east of the tropical wave axis.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds
will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the
northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave, currently located along
66W, will continue moving west across the basin accompanied by
active weather and enhanced winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is N of
the Bahamas north of 28N-31N between 75W-81W near a trough that
extends southwest from 33N74W to 31N76W. Further east, a surface
trough extends from 33N71W to 26N70W. Another trough extends
from 31N60W to 25N58W. Neither of these troughs have any
significant Convection in the vicinity. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Over the western Atlantic, weak high pressure is maintaining
generally gentle to moderate winds across the area. The high
pressure will begin retreat eastward through Wed in response
to a cold front that will be moving across the southeastern
U.S. This cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast
Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area through
Wed. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near
31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary
from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead
of the cold front.

$$
MTorres
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523
AXNT20 KNHC 291816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front has entered the Gulf waters and now extends
from 29N84W to 20N96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 18N-23N and west of 90W. The front will reach the SE Gulf
waters Wed and the Straits of Florida by Wed evening. In the wake
of the front, strong northerly winds are forecast in the western
half of the basin, with gale force winds expected west of 95W.
Seas are forecast to build to 18 ft over the SW Gulf by this
afternoon/evening. These conditions will dissipate by Wed
morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is along 18W from
01N-14N. The wave is moving west at about 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of this wave.

A tropical wave axis is along 44W from 01N-15N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between
40W-46W.

A tropical wave axis is along 61W from 10N-19N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-20N between
58W-63W.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently
located along 73W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
south of Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. This wave will
continue moving westward across the basin through the period
accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds along with
building seas. This feature is expected to become part of a broad
low-pressure area over the western Caribbean in a few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N39W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N46W to 03N54W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, no significant
convection is noted near these boundaries at this time.

Gulf of Mexico...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the SW Gulf.

A surface ridge from the Atlantic extends across Florida into the
eastern Gulf. Surface trough is noted south of the cold front in
the Bay of Campeche. Drier air is moving into the far northwest
Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. The most recent scatterometer
Data depict light to gentle winds over the southeast Gulf, and
gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong northerly winds follow the front.

Looking ahead, the cold front will continue moving SE across the
basin with strong to near gale force northerly winds behind it
and gale force winds in the region of Veracruz through tonight.
A secondary frontal boundary will drop southward to the northern
Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern Gulf by Fri
evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front.
The pressure gradient between the front and broad low pressure
that is expected to form over the western Caribbean by the end of
the week is expected to freshen the northeast winds over most of
the southeastern Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may
reach strong speeds on Sat along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the central Caribbean, while
another one is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is noted between the two tropical
waves in the eastern Caribbean between 65W-70W. West of the
tropical waves, a 1006 mb low pressure is noted over northern
Colombia with the Pacific monsoon trough extending west across
Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the boundary south of 13N between 76W-83W. To the NW,
limited convection is noted. Scatterometer data depicts light to
moderate trade winds across most of the basin except between 60W-
70W, where moderate to fresh winds prevail.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Moderate winds will
continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern
Caribbean. A tropical wave, currently located near 73W, will
continue moving westward across the basin through the period
accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds along with
building seas. This feature is expected to become part of a broad
low pressure area over the western Caribbean over the next few
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 39N45W.

Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining
gentle to moderate winds across the area. The high pressure will
begin to retreat eastward through Wed in response to a cold front
that will reach the southeastern U.S. coast tonight and move over
the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front will weaken
through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead of the cold front.

Torres
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694
AXNT20 KNHC 301732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Special Features

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently
located along 79W, moving west at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-19N between
74W-83W. This wave will continue moving westward and interact
with the stationary front approaching the area. The wave will be
accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds. This feature is
expected to become part of a broad low-pressure area over the
western Caribbean within the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development with a
medium chance in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 00N-14N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-14N between 23W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 08N-15N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east
of the wave's axis from 08N-15N between 48W-56W.

A tropical wave axis is along 67W from 03N-19N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of
the waves axis from 11N-20N between 67W-63W. No significant
convection is noted south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N20W
to 07N28W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N47W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-
13n and east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen
near the ITCZ from 08N-15N between 43W-48W.

Gulf of Mexico...


A cold front extending from 30N76W to 23N86W to 18N92W continues
to produce scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the
boundary. Drier air is moving into the northwest Gulf behind the
cold front as surface ridging builds across the area. The most
recent scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds NW of the
front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail SE of the
front.

The cold front will support strong to near gale force winds in
the SW basin and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. The front
will move E of the basin by this evening. A second front will
enter the northern Gulf on Sat. Strong high pressure building
behind this front will support fresh northeast winds over most of
the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may reach strong
speeds on Sat along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another
one is moving across Hispaniola. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's
monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-82W with
scattered to numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data
depicts light to moderate trade winds across most of the basin
except east of 76W, where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected over the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sat, and will decrease to gentle to
moderate for the remaining period. A tropical wave located over
the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over
the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system,
producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 41N43W. A surface
trough is seen in the latest ASCAT pass from 30N45W to 25N38W and
a second trough further east extending south from a low pressure
near 32N31W to 25N29W.

Moderate to fresh winds ahead and behind a cold front that
extends from 30N76W to 26N80W will prevail to the E of the
Bahamas through Thu as the front dissipates. A pair of tropical
waves will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Thu
through Sun and will support moderate to fresh winds over the SE
offshore waters, increasing to strong N of Hispaniola at night.

$
Torres
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569
AXNT20 KNHC 011003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 15N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
observed west of the wave axis along the ITCZ from 07N to 09N
between 34W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 17N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident near the tropical wave from 10N to
13N between 52W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N
southward through western Panama and into the eastern Pacific,
moving west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 12N to 17N between 80W and 83W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest
Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity
of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. There is a
high chance a tropical depression will form over the next five
days. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Gambia near 13N17W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to
10N30W, to 10N29W, and from 07N35W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 16W and 21W. Other
areas of convection are described above in the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the northwest
part of the Yucatan peninsula near Merida, then farther to the
southwest over the extreme eastern Bay of Campeche to Ciudad del
Carmen. Clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are active
along the front to the north of the Yucatan peninsula. Recent
scatterometer passes indicated northerly winds are 20 to 25 kt
over the southern Bay of Campeche and in some areas within 120 nm
north of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft over the
southwest Gulf. Farther north, 1020 mb high pressure is centered
south of Lake Charles Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE winds are
noted across much of the northern and western sections of the
Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No other shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed.

For the forecast, the stationary front will slowly dissipate
tonight and early Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move through
the northeast Gulf Fri, eventually stalling across South Florida
and the southeast Gulf through late Sat. Meanwhile, developing low
pressure over the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula will
support strong to near gale force winds and building seas over the
mainly the south central Gulf from late Fri to early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over
much of the eastern and central Caribbean this morning between
high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure related to the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean described in the section
above. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are also noted
across the central Caribbean, where the E trade winds converge
with SE winds closer to the axis of the tropical wave.
Observations from Leeward Islands show brief episodes of fresh to
strong winds in fast-moving rain squalls.

Showers and thunderstorms may increase over the Windward Islands
and adjacent Caribbean waters later today as the tropical wave
near 57W moves into the area accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and seas may increase over
the northwest Caribbean through Sat depending on the development
and track of the low pressure in that area. This may tighten the
pressure gradient enough to support fresh to strong trade winds
south of Hispaniola by late Fri. Otherwise, little change is
expected through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few areas of thunderstorms are active along a stationary front
reaching from 32N73W to near Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, then
continues across South Florida. Deep layer moisture remains
fairly high east of the frontal boundary, and converging SE flow
is supporting other areas of thunderstorms mainly north of 27N
east of the front to 65W. An upper trough is supporting a cluster
of thunderstorms farther east near 29N60W. The main synoptic
feature over the Atlantic is a 1034 mb high pressure area centered
well to the north near 41N40W. A recent scatterometer pass
indicated a surface trough embedded in the ridge just to the south
of the high pressure. This is supporting an area of fresh to
strong winds and 8 ft seas from 30N to 32N between 35W and 40W.
Another area of fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 9 ft
is just east of the Leeward and Windward Islands associated with
the tropical wave in that area. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas characterize
the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move into
the waters off northeast Florida late Fri and early Sat, before
also stalling from near 31N75W to South Florida by late Sat and
dissipating through Sun. Meanwhile the high pressure over the
central Atlantic and the lower pressure in the northwest
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trades winds south of
20N, occasionally pulsing to strong winds north of Hispaniola
during the overnight hours. Looking ahead, a third weak front will
move south and stall from 31N72W to Central Florida by Mon night.

$$
Christensen
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819
AXNT20 KNHC 021754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The low pressure in the northwest Caribbean has organized into
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five. T.D. Twenty-Five is centered
near 18.3 84.9W as of 02/1800 UTC, or about 175 nm SE of Cozumel
Mexico, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 270
nm of the center in the northern semicircle and 210 nm southern
semicircle, including over northern Honduras, the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. The
depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before
moving near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday. The cyclone may emerge into the south central Gulf of
Mexico Sunday or Monday, before shifting westward across the
southern Gulf. This slow-moving tropical cyclone is expected to
bring heavy rain that could result in life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western
Cuba, and well away from the center in the Mexican states of
Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, as well as northern
portions of Central America. Seas will build over the far
northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Saturday
night, and in the south-central Gulf through early next week.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from
05N-15N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66/67W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 270 nm W and within 90 nm E of the
wave aixs from 08N-18N. Additional convection occurring farther
east over the Windward and Leeward Islands is partially due to a
moist environment caused by the tropical wave, but also due to
enhanced upper-level diffluence to the SE of an upper-level
trough N of Puerto Rico. This tropical wave has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days as it continues
W through the Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to 09N33W,
and from 07N40W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the ITCZ between 28W-33W. Similar convection is along and N
of the ITCZ between 40W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southwest Florida near 26N81W to
22N88W. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 22N88W
over the NW Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche near
19N92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the front. A recent ASCAT pass indicates strong N to NE winds
over much of the south-central Gulf to the north of the front and
west of 85W. Locally near gale force winds are offshore the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are
also evident over the far southwest Gulf of Mexico, south of 20N.
Farther north, a reinforcing cold front is moving through the
northern Gulf, stretching from near Crystal River Florida near
28.5N83W to 26N94W to the Texas coast near 27N97.5W to 28N100W.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the reinforcing front.

The stationary front from southwest Florida to the western
Yucatan Peninsula will slowly dissipate today. The reinforcing
front over the northern Gulf will move across the northeast Gulf
today, eventually stalling and dissipating across southern
Florida and the southeast Gulf through Sat. Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five is forecast to emerge north of the Yucatan Peninsula
into the far southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday or Monday as a
tropical storm, increasing winds and seas across the southern
Gulf. Please see the special features section above for more
details on T.D. Twenty-Five.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the NW Caribbean is due to Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five. Please see the Special Features section above for
details. Convection between 60W-73W is due to the tropical wave
in the eastern Caribbean. A broad mid to upper trough north of
Puerto Rico is providing divergent flow aloft on the southeast
periphery of the upper trough, and this is enhancing the shower
and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Caribbean near and
east of the tropical wave along 66/67W. See the tropical waves
section above for more details.

A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds across much of
the eastern and central Caribbean, especially from 15N-18N
between 63W-75W and from 11N-15N between 65W-70W. Gusty winds
associated with T.D. Twenty-Five cover the NW Caribbean. Light
to gentle winds are noted in the far SW Caribbean south of 14N
west of 76W. Recent altimeter passes indicate that seas are
5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five is forecast to strengthen to a
tropical storm near 20N87W Sat morning, move inland to near
21.5N87.5W Sun morning, to near 22N88W Mon morning, and to near
21.5N 90.5W early Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are
expected over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun
night as a tropical wave moves westward through the Caribbean.
The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has a low chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Winds
and seas will subside Mon and Tue across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N74W to 30N76W. The front continues
as stationary from 30N76W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida to 24N85W.
The front is under a sharp upper ridge extending to the northeast
of the broad upper anticyclone covering T.D. Twenty-Five in the
northwest Caribbean. Convergent southeast flow into the front
along with divergence along this upper ridge is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms along and within 120 nm of
the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh S to SW winds within
120 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Gentle to moderate winds
are observed elsewhere over the waters north of 23N and west of
65W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are south
of 23N. A reinforcing cold front extends from 32N79W to St.
Augustine Florida to Crystal River Florida. No significant
precipitation is noted with the reinforcing front.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through late today. The reinforcing cold front will
stall from near 31N79W to central Florida by Sat afternoon, and
then retreat northward as a warm front on Sun. Meanwhile, the
Bermuda High north of our area and lower pressure in the NW
Caribbean associated with T.D. Twenty-Five will support moderate
to fresh trades south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong
north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sun night.
Looking ahead, a third weak front will move over the Atlantic
waters east of NE Florida late Sun and dissipate by early Tue.

Farther east, 1033 mb high pressure is centered near 41N38W. A
weak surface trough is noted along 41W from 23N-31N. Scattered
showers and tstorms with this trough are seen from 27N-32N
between 38W-45W. Fresh to locally strong E winds persist near the
trough north of 27N, but winds and seas are expected to subside
later today. Generally moderate trades persist farther south into
the tropics between 40W-58W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong
NE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted off North Africa.

$$

Hagen
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408
AXNT20 KNHC 031044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered near 19.4N 86.9W at 03/0900 UTC
or 70 nm S of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Strong thunderstorms
are evident across the inner core of Gamma and in a prominent band
to north of the center impacting northern Quintana Roo. Another
strong band is moving northwest toward western Cuba. Given the
size and relatively slow movement of Gamma across the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight, the main threat
continues to be heavy rainfall that could result in life-
threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican
states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. Please monitor
local weather advisories for more details. For marine interests,
strong winds and seas at least as high as 13 ft will impact the
Yucatan Channel through tonight. In the south- central Gulf, a
long fetch of persistent near-gale force NE winds is already
causing seas to 12 ft off the north coast of Yucatan, along with
rough surf conditions. Adverse marine conditions will persist into
mid week in the south-central Gulf due to the expected track of
Gamma. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. A broad area of disorganized area of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
08N-16N between 33W-44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is evident over the entrance to the Gulf of Venezuela,
to the west of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N40W,
and from 06N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Convection
near the ITCZ is associated with the tropical wave along 42W,
described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from southwest Florida
near 26N81W to 22N90W. Another stationary front farther north
extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida coast near 26N84W. In the far
southwest Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed off the coast of
Veracruz. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated
strong to near- gale force NW winds funneling between the trough
and the coast, south of 21N. Large area of strong to near-gale
force NE winds are noted over the south-central Gulf, between
Gamma to the southeast and high pressure north of the area. A
recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were reaching 12 ft
off the Yucatan coast. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
persist elsewhere over the northern Gulf. Seas over the southern
Bay of Campeche are likely up to 9 ft, in a combination of mixed
NW and NE swell.

For the forecast, Gamma will enter the south-central Gulf and
reach near 21.7N 88.0W Sun afternoon, then move to 21.8N 88.4W
Mon morning, 21.6N 89.3W Mon afternoon, and 21.2N 90.5W Tue
morning. Gamma is expected to change little in intensity as it
moves across the eastern Bay of Campeche through early Wed.
Meanwhile a weak stationary front reaching from SW Florida to the
south-central Gulf will dissipate late by today ahead of Gamma.
Another stationary front from central Florida to the central Gulf
will dissipate late Sun into Mon. A cold front will move into the
northern Gulf Mon and stall over the central Gulf through mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on information regarding
T.S. Gamma and the tropical waves section regarding the tropical
wave in the central Caribbean.

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the southern coast
of the Dominican Republic this morning, likely due to overnight
drainage flow converging off the coast, but also near where the
northern portion of the tropical wave is passing. Strong E winds
are noted off the southern coast of Haiti as well, with seas
likely reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere east of 75W, and north of 18N
particularly between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Light to gentle
breezes and modest seas are noted over the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, Gamma will move to 20.2N 87.4W this afternoon,
inland to 21.1N 87.9W Sun morning, then into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico through Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish over the far northwest Caribbean through Mon.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are expected over the eastern
and central Caribbean through Sun night. Winds and seas will
subside through mid week across the basin as Gamma moves farther
west and high pressure north of the area weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W to 26N80W. A surface trough
is analyzed south of the front, reaching from the northern Bahamas
to central Cuba. A few showers are active over the northern
Bahamas where the trough and front intersect. Another stationary
front is analyzed farther north, from 31N78W to 28N80W. No
significant weather is associated with that front. A broad
surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure near 40N37W to
just east of the fronts. The gradient on the southwest side of
this ridge is supporting fresh to strong E winds off the north
coast of Hispaniola. Fresh winds and a few showers are also noted
north of a surface trough embedded in the ridge along 48W from 23N
to 28N. Fresh winds are also associated with the tropical wave
near 42W. In the eastern Atlantic, Fresh to strong NE winds and
seas to 9 ft are active off the African coast of Mauritania in
Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds persist across the
Atlantic with mostly 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the stationary front
extending from 31N73W to 26N80W will gradually dissipate late
today or tonight. The other stationary front extending from
31N78W to 28N80W will dissipate through late Sun. Meanwhile, the
high pressure north of our area will support moderate to fresh
trades south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong north of
Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sun night. Looking
ahead, a third weak front will move over the Atlantic waters east
of NE Florida late Sun or early Mon, drift south through Tue then
stall from 31N73W to near W Palm Beach Florida by mid week.

$$

Christensen
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012
AXNT20 KNHC 032237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered near 20.7N 87.7W at 03/2100 UTC
or 30 nm NNW of Tulum Mexico moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is
within 180 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, SE
Gulf of Mexico, and Yucatan Peninsula, from 17N-25N between 80W-
91W. Given the size and relatively slow movement of Gamma across
the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight,
the main threat continues to be heavy rainfall that could result
in life- threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula and far western Cuba. Please monitor local weather
advisories for more details. For marine interests, strong winds
and seas at least as high as 16 ft will impact the Yucatan
Channel through tonight. In the south- central Gulf, a long fetch
of persistent near-gale force NE winds is already causing seas to
12 ft off the north coast of Yucatan, along with rough surf
conditions. Adverse marine conditions will persist into mid week
in the south-central Gulf due to the expected track of Gamma.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Low pressure of 1010 mb has formed in
association with this wave near 11N43W. A broad area of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-20N between
34W-47W. As this low and wave move WNW or NW over the next couple
of days, there is a low chance of tropical formation before they
encounter strong upper level winds early next week.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is over the central Caribbean from 11N-16N between 66W-
74W. With convection increasing today and environmental
conditions expected to become more conducive for development, a
tropical depression could form next week while the system moves W
or WNW across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into
the southern Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 11N39W,
and from 09N44W to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Convection
near the ITCZ is associated with the tropical wave along 42W,
described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.S. Gamma that is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of
Mexico tonight. Also, see the tropical waves section above for
information on a tropical wave that may impact the Gulf toward the
middle of next week.

A stationary front is located from Naples Florida to 23N87.
Another stationary front that had been located in the far eastern
Gulf north of the main front has dissipated. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the main
stationary front. Seas are from 8-12 ft over a broad area of the
south-central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, with 4 to 7 ft
see else over much of the southwest, central, and southeast Gulf.
Strong NE winds are ongoing over the areas with 8 to 12 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Gamma near 20.7N 87.7W 985 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Gamma will move inland to 21.3N 88.0W Sun morning, 22.0N 88.2W
Sun afternoon, 22.1N 88.4W Mon morning, 22.0N 89.1W Mon afternoon,
21.6N 90.4W Tue morning, and 21.0N 91.5W Tue afternoon. Gamma
will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 92.0W Wed
afternoon. A stationary front from SW Florida near 26N81W to the
SE Gulf near 23N86W will dissipate late Sun into Mon. Otherwise,
a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon and stall over
the central Gulf through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on information regarding
T.S. Gamma over the Yucatan Peninsula and the tropical waves
section regarding the tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

Showers and thunderstorms are noted over Puerto Rico, the Leeward
Islands, and the Windward Islands. Fresh E winds are occurring
over much of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 5 to
7 ft. Light to gentle breezes and modest seas are noted over the
southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Gamma near 20.7N 87.7W 985 mb at
5 PM EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts
65 kt. Gamma will move inland to 21.3N 88.0W Sun morning, 22.0N
88.2W Sun afternoon, 22.1N 88.4W Mon morning, 22.0N 89.1W Mon
afternoon, 21.6N 90.4W Tue morning, and 21.0N 91.5W Tue afternoon.
Gamma will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N
92.0W Wed afternoon. Winds and seas over the northwest Caribbean
and Yucatan Channel will diminish early next week as Gamma
continues to move WNW. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are
expected over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night.
Winds and seas will subside through mid week across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front, with scattered moderate convection within 60
nm either side of its boundary, extends from 31N73W to 27N80W.
Another stationary front is analyzed farther north, from 31N79W
to Daytona Beach Florida. No significant weather is associated
with that front.

A surface trough well ESE of Bermuda, from around 31N46W to
24N50W is producing a large area of disorganized, scattered
convection from 28N-31N between 42W-49W. This system is expected
to move WSW at 10 kt and some slow development is possible over
the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level
winds.

A tight pressure gradient between and expansive high pressure
ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over the
Caribbean is supporting strong E winds off the north coast of
Hispaniola. In the eastern Atlantic, Fresh to strong NE winds and
seas to 9 ft are active off the African coast of Mauritania.
Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds persist across the
Atlantic with mostly 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the stationary front off
the coast of Florida will dissipate by Sun. Otherwise, the
Bermuda High north of our area and lower pressure in NW Caribbean
associated with T.S. Gamma will support moderate to fresh trades
south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong north of Hispaniola
during the overnight hours through Sun night. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front will move over the Atlantic waters east of NE
Florida late Sun or early Mon, drift south through Tue then stall
from 31N73W to near W Palm Beach Florida by mid week.

$$
KONARIK
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473
AXNT20 KNHC 041047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered off the north coast of Yucatan near
22.0N 88.2W at 04/0900 UTC or 100 nm ENE of Progreso Mexico
moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Large
clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active within 150 nm in
the northwest semicircle of Gamma. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are observed over the southeast Gulf from 23N to 26N
between 83W and 88W. Isolated thunderstorms are also evident over
western Cuba. Most of the thunderstorm activity has moved north
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are building as Gamma moves farther
offshore. A long fetch of persistent NE winds to the north of
Gamma is support seas to 16 ft in the south- central Gulf. Gamma
is expected to turn toward the north- northwest with decreasing
forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
west or west- southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma will pass near or north of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

A tropical wave with an axis along 75W southward from 18N moving
W at 10 kt is producing scattered moderate convection from 13N-
15N between 71W-77W. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves westward or west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt across
the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea and then into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on
those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
This system has a medium chance of development through the next
48 hours and a high chance of formation through the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave near 11N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-17N between 41W-
48W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Significant development is not
expected beyond that time due to the system moving into a region
of strong upper-level winds. This system has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours and the next 5 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to 06N43W
and from 09N47W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W.
Some scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of
southern Senegal. No other significant convection is observed.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.S. Gamma.

A stationary front continues to linger off the SW Florida coast
near 26N81W to 24N85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 80
nm of the front. Dry conditions west of 90W is inhibiting
convection from occurring over the western Gulf. Moderate to
strong N to NW winds span across the eastern and central Gulf,
including the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche. Gentle
easterly winds are off the coasts of Texas through Alabama. Seas
are from 3-5 ft across the northern and western Gulf with 9-16 ft
across the south- central Gulf near T.S. Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma near 22.0N 88.2W 995 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Gamma will move to 22.6N 88.3W this afternoon, 22.7N 88.6W Mon
morning, 22.4N 89.4W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 90.2W Tue morning,
21.5N 90.9W Tue afternoon, and 21.0N 91.6W Wed morning. Gamma
will change little in intensity as it moves westward through the
eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front from SW Florida near
26N81W to the SE Gulf near 24N83W will dissipate later today,
ahead of low pressure expected to move from the northern Caribbean
across western Cuba into the southeast Gulf Tue, possibly as a
tropical depression or tropical storm. A cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Mon, then stall and dissipate over the central
Gulf through mid week as the low pressure moves northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on information regarding
T.S. Gamma and the tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from 11N74W
to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 13N- 15N between 71W-77W. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to impact the Virgin Islands westward into
Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most
of the Caribbean with fresh winds near the Greater Antilles and
light winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are from 3-6 ft across most
of the basin with upwards of 8 ft near the low along the tropical
wave, and 5 to 7 ft near the Yucatan Channel

Gamma will continue to move NW into the south-central Gulf,
allowing winds and seas over the Yucatan Channel to diminish
through Sun. The focus turns to the development and track of the
low pressure south of Haiti There is a high chance this low may
form into a tropical depression or tropical storm through next
several days as the low moves west- northwest through the
northwest Caribbean, south of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is draped off the Florida coast from 31N79W to
the coast near Melbourne, Florida at 29N80W. Another stationary
front is farther south extends from 31N74W to near West Palm
Beach, Florida at 27N80W. No significant convection is associated
with either front. Both stationary front will dissipate through
late today or tonight. A broad surface ridge extends from 1030 mb
high pressure near 38N37W west of the Azores to just east of the
fronts. The gradient on the southwest side of this ridge is
supporting fresh to strong E winds off the north coast of
Hispaniola. There may be one more round of fresh to strong winds
off Hispaniola tonight. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter
as the ridge shifts east ahead of a third weak front that will
move over the Atlantic waters east of NE Florida by early Mon,
drift south through Tue then stall from 31N73W to near W Palm
Beach Florida by mid week.

Farther east, fresh winds and a few showers are also noted north
of a surface trough embedded in the ridge along 50W from 23N to
30N. Fresh winds are also associated with the tropical wave near
45W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
to 9 ft are active off the African coast of Western Sahara and
Mauritania. Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds persist
across the Atlantic with mostly 5 to 7 ft seas.

$$
Christensen
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061
AXNT20 KNHC 051038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered is near 22.8N 87.4W at 05/0600
UTC or 160 nm ENE of Progreso Mexico, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Gamma has an exposed center
currently, with most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
sheared well to the northeast of the center due to strong S to SE
winds aloft. Moderate to strong convection is observed over the
eastern central Gulf from 25N to 27N between 85W and 88W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed a band of tropical storm force
winds within 150 nm in the northern quadrant of the storm, with
generally fresh to occasionally strong winds on the southern
portion of Gamma, over the north coast of Yucatan. The long fetch
of the persistent strong NE winds to the north of the center is
supporting seas to as high as 17 ft in the northwest quadrant of
Gamma. Gamma is expected to through mid week as it parallels the
coast of northwest Yucatan, briefly going inland Wed, on the
Campeche coast before turning northward again toward the south-
central Gulf. Gamma will become a minor low center by Thu on the
southern periphery of a possible Hurricane Twenty-six expected to
be moving across the central Gulf at that time. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Six is centered near 16.9N 77.8W at
05/0600 UTC or 80 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm in the south semicircle of
Twenty-six this morning. The depression is expected to continue to
move WNW today, and strengthen to a tropical storm just west of
Jamaica by this afternoon. The storm will then continue to move
through the northwest Caribbean, passing over Grand Cayman
tonight, then strengthen further through early Tue as it
approaches western Cuba. Twenty-six is forecast to become a
hurricane late Tue as it moves through the Yucatan Channel and
crosses over the western tip of Cuba, then continue toward the
north-central Gulf of Mexico by late in the week. Heavy rainfall will
affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous surf is likely over parts
of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Interests in the northern
Gulf should monitor monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of
this wave from 16N-19N between 46W-48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of southern
Mauritania to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 17N17W, to
09N27W to 06N35W. The intertropical convergence zone continues
from 06N35W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. No significant
showers or thunderstorms are noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.S. Gamma, and T.D. Twenty-six.

Outside of the area of showers and thunderstorms over the east
central Gulf, a fairly dry pattern is in place with no significant
convection noted, to include over T.S. Gamma. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are noted over most of the Gulf outside of the main
area of Gamma, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are
noted over the far northwest Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

The development and track of both T.S. Gamma and T.D. Twenty-six
will be the main influences on the forecast for the Gulf of
Mexico through late week, as described above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Six.

The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from
11N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Other than the area
of showers and thunderstorms noted above associated with T.D.
Twenty-six, thunderstorms are active off the Guajira Peninsula in
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Thunderstorms are also
active off Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras. A few showers
may be active over the northern Windward Islands as well. Fresh to
strong west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of Roatan
and east of Belize. Strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are active
between Jamaica and the southern peninsula of Haiti. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted over the
Caribbean.

Beyond the impacts of T.D. Twenty-six mentioned above, the pattern
will gradually shift to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across
the basin, with the strongest winds over the south-central
Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends near the coast of Florida from 31N76W
to near Cape Canaveral, Florida at 28N81W. No significant showers
or thunderstorms are noted near the front. Moderate NE winds are
north of the front with light to gentle SSE winds ahead of it.
Farther east, 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 32N62W, and
east of that a trough is analyzed along 55W from 23N to 30N. No
significant showers are noted near the trough, nor are there any
winds greater than 20 kt, but swell to 8 ft lingers along the
trough axis, a legacy of fresh to strong winds along the trough
several days ago. The main influence is 1029 mb high pressure
centered near 38N33W west of the Azores. This is supporting
generally moderate trade winds over the waters east of 50W, except
for fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft off North Africa.

For the forecast, SE winds will increase slightly across the
Bahamas by Tue as T.D. Twenty-six strengthens south of Cuba.
Reinforcing front will move off Florida and stall by mid week,
before moving northward again as a warm front.


$$
Christensen
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894
AXNT20 KNHC 061750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is located near 17.5N 81.3W at 06/1500 UTC or
287 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center of Delta. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
13N-22N between 80W-87W. Seas are rapidly building near
the center of Delta as the winds increase, and maximum wave
heights are estimated to be 20 to 25 ft. Delta is a major
hurricane. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands
through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be
an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely
when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening
is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
wave axis from 15N-23N between 48W-53W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is W of the wave axis over the Leeward and
Windward Islands, partially due to an upper level low over
the E Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 07N40W to 07N54W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The 1006 mb remnant low of Gamma is just inland over the
N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. The low will dissipate by Wed
morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 19N-28N between 88W-92W. There is still a large are of fresh
to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the
central and southwest Gulf in the wake of Gamma. Most of these
winds and seas will diminish through late today, except for over
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft are noted in most other locations of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

Dry, subsident air on the western side of the Caribbean upper low
is keeping Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with little to no cloud
cover.

Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over
the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of
Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu,
moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern
and central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes
and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
31N68W to 30N76W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
noted along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing
off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and
Caicos Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is
analyzed in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No
significant convection is associated with this system. Farther
east, a 1030 mb high centered near the Azores at 39N21W is
supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of
the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is
evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and
northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds
are evident.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist
off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will
move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift
northward as a warm front through Sat.

$$
Formosa
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950
AXNT20 KNHC 071037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Delta is centered near 20.6N 86.4W at 07/0900 UTC or
30 nm ENE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is
observed within 90 to 120 nm of the center, impacting Cozumel, the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Maximum
wave heights are estimated to be around 30 ft near the center of
Delta. Delta will move over the northeast tip of Yucatan and
through the Yucatan Channel into the south-central Gulf by this
afternoon, then continue across the central and northwest Gulf of
Mexico, where it is expected to make landfall along Louisiana by
late Fri. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next few hours. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday, causing the
potential for flash floods and mudslides. Looking ahead, there is
a chance for life-threatening storm surge and flooding along the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts starting Fri as Delta moves into
the region. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis over Senegal along 16W is moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
along the wave axis from 08N-14N.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 55W, moving to the W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 13N-15N between 50-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N35W to
09N52W. No convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The 1005 mb remnant low of Gamma has dissipated over the Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough extends from 21N89W to 24N92W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 18N to 20N between 92W and 94W, where there are fresh
to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft. Strong winds and building
rapidly building seas are noted near the Yucatan Channel ahead of
Delta. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere within
4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern Gulf and 5 to 7 ft seas in the
western Gulf.

High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of Delta
starting Sat, allowing winds and seas to diminish.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

A vigorous upper-level low centered over the eastern Dominican
Republic is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection to
the south and southeast of the upper low, over much of the eastern
Caribbean. Fresh trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean, within light breezes and slight seas over
the southwest part of the basin. Winds and seas will diminish in
the northwest Caribbean through Thu after Delta leave the area.
Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds mainly over the south-central
Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W. No significant showers are noted
along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of
Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the
central Bahamas, including the Old Bahama Channel. A surface
trough is analyzed along 64W from 24N-29N with no significant
convection. Farther east, a 1026 mb high centered east of the
Azores is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the
tropical Atlantic. Some Saharan dust is evident over the eastern
Atlantic, mainly north of 10N and east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, stationary front extending from
31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W will persist in the area through mid
week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and
merge with this front on Thu, then move east across the northern
portion of the basin through the end of the week.

$$
Christensen
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115
AXNT20 KNHC 081022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is centered near 23.4N 91.8W at 08/0900 UTC or
390 nm SSE of Cameron Louisiana moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is
active within 90 nm of the northeastern semicircle and 120 nm of
the southeastern semicircle. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through today, and approach the northern Gulf coast on
Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland by late Fri or Fri
night. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through today, and Delta
is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Fri. Peak
seas near the center of Delta are forecast to build to at least
33 feet today as Delta moves over the central Gulf, with an
expanding area of swell supporting combined seas in excess of 8 ft
over most of the central and western Gulf. Very heavy rainfall,
hurricane force winds, and a life- threatening storm surge are
expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast Fri into early
Sat. The heavy rain will then spread inland across the Mississippi
Valley. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 23W/24W from 03N-16N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N
between 21W-24W.

A tropical wave axis is along 59W from 06N-22N, moving W at 10
kt. No significant convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N55W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing off African
coast from Liberia to Senegal. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N-08N between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The central and western Gulf of Mexico is currently dominated by
the circulation of Hurricane Delta. See Special Features section
above for details on Delta.

Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico outside of the main area of
Delta, a scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW to N
winds funneling along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to
Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in the far southwest
Gulf, mainly due to swell. Buoy and platform data shows fresh to
strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the northwest and north-
central Gulf ahead of the advancing Delta. Buoy and ship
observations show strong SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are
observed over the east-central Gulf, just east of Delta. Moderate
to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed in the far
eastern Gulf of Mexico close to the Florida coast.

Hurricane Delta near 23.4N 91.8W 973 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt.
Delta will move to 24.6N 93.0W this afternoon, 26.4N 93.7W Fri
morning, 28.8N 93.4W Fri afternoon, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 31.3N 92.4W Sat morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 33.3N 90.9W Sat afternoon,
and become a remnant low and move to 34.6N 89.0W Sun morning.
Delta will dissipate early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish
starting Fri and Sat through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered near Jamaica. Upper level
divergence on the southeast side of the upper low is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from the coast of Colombia
to off the coasts of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active from Providencia Island to Jamaica.
Dry, subsident NE flow aloft between the upper low and an upper
anticyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is suppressing most
convective activity over the remainder of Cuba and the northwest
Caribbean. High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas is
supporting moderate trade winds across the eastern Caribbean,
although fresh trade winds are possible off Venezuela and across
the ABC islands. These fresh winds will be short lived as the high
pressure should weaken this morning. Fresh southerly are likely
ongoing over the Yucatan Channel, although should be diminishing
through the morning as Delta moves farther away. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the northwest
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds and
slight seas elsewhere Fri. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, 1018 mb high pressure is centered northeast of the
Bahamas, near 28N71W. This is supporting moderate SE winds over
the Old Bahama Channel, and light breezes and slight seas
elsewhere west of 65W. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed. For the forecast, high pressure centered
northeast of the Bahamas will dissipate this morning ahead of a
cold front approaching the area from north. The front will stall
along roughly 27N Fri, then lift north as a warm front through
Sat. A weak pressure pattern will follow and gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist Sun and Mon.

Farther east, a relatively weak 1019 mb high pressure area is
centered 30N42W, displaced southward due a frontal boundary over
the north-central Atlantic. Farther east, several weak surface
troughs are noted north of 20N between 30W-40W. This pattern is
resulting in a somewhat subdued pressure gradient, supporting
gentle to moderate trade winds farther south into the tropical
Atlantic. Fresh NE winds were noted earlier off the coast of
Africa. Seas are 4 to 6 ft.

$$

Christensen
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582
AXNT20 KNHC 081748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 08/1500 UTC, is near 24.0N
92.7W. This position also is about 350 nm/645 km to the S of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110
knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 190 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle, and within 170 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center, and from 270 nm to 440 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. The hazards that will be affecting the
land are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf.
Hurricane conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are
expected to begin along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf
of Mexico, on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/ Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 16N
southward, moving W 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N to 16N.
Scattered moderate is within 75 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 13N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 100 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 20N to 23N, and within 30 nm to the west of the wave
from 20N to 21N, and from 10N to 14N between 59W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N19W, 09N30W, 07N32W, and 07N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N36W, to 05N45W, and to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated strong is from 13N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 08/1800 UTC, is near 24.0N
92.7W. This position also is about 350 nm/645 km to the S of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110
knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 190 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle, and within 170 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center, and from 270 nm to 440 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant.

Hurricane Delta near 24.0N 92.7W 968 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Delta will
move to 25.4N 93.6W this evening, 27.5N 93.8W Fri morning, 29.8N
93.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm
near 32.4N 91.7W Sat morning, then becoming a tropical
depression near 34.0N 90.0W Sat evening, and become a remnant
low and move to 35.6N 87.9W Sun morning. Delta will dissipate
early on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is on
top of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 67W westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from
25N southward from 67W westward. Precipitation: scattered strong
is from 200 nm to 400 nm to the south of the cyclonic
circulation center. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong is elsewhere from 67W westward.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 23N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 20N to 23N,
and within 30 nm to the west of the wave from 20N to 21N, and
from 10N to 14N between 59W and 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the waters
from 12N southward from 77W westward.

Building high pressure in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean will
support fresh trade winds and moderate seas in the south central
Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight
seas elsewhere on Friday. The winds and the seas will diminish
across the basin, through early next week, as the high pressure
shifts to the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 64W/65W, from 23N to 30N.
Precipitation: little to none.

A second surface trough is along 26N34W 17N36W. Precipitation:
little to none.

The GFS model for 700 mb, for 500 mb, and for 250 mb shows broad
anticyclonic wind flow from 10N to 16N between 50W and 57W. This
is an area of widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
precipitation.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 26N northward from 30W westward. Two large-scale frontal
boundaries are in the Atlantic Ocean, from 30N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow.

High pressure, centered to the east of the Bahamas, will
dissipate today, in advance of a cold front that is approaching
the area from the north. The front will stall along roughly 27N
on Friday. The western part, of the front will move northward as
a warm front, through early Saturday. A weak pressure pattern
will follow, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist on Sunday and Monday.

$$
mt
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330
AXNT20 KNHC 091808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 09/1700 UTC, is near 28.5N
93.7W. This position also is about 85 nm/150 km to the SSW of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving N, or 0 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 170 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong is elsewhere, from 26N northward,
between 92W and 96W, and from the coast inland northward for another
150 nm to 200 nm, between 90W and 96W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 280 nm to 420 nm to the
south of Hurricane Delta, between 91W and 95W. The center of
Hurricane DELTA is moving northward, toward the coast of SW
Louisiana. Hurricane conditions, and a life-threatening storm surge,
are expected to reach the northern sections of the coast of the Gulf
of Mexico later today. The hazards that will be affecting the land
are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane
conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin
along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on
Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 17N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 09N between 36W and
40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 240 nm
to the west of the tropical wave, and within 540 nm to the east of
the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb trough shows
up well, in the GFE model field, vertically stacked with respect
to the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the NE of the tropical
wave, and within 820 nm to the east and southeast of the
tropical wave. All the precipitation is occurring from 10N to
25N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 15N to 16N. Isolated moderate is between 72W
and the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between the tropical wave and 80W from 15N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 12N16W, to 10N20W, 08N30W, 08N34W, and 05N35W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N35W, to 04N38W, and to 03N42W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolate to locally strong,
is from 17N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 09/1700 UTC, is near 28.5N
93.7W. This position also is about 85 nm/150 km to the SSW of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving N, or 0 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 170 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong is elsewhere, from 26N northward,
between 92W and 96W, and from the coast inland northward for another
150 nm to 200 nm, between 90W and 96W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 280 nm to 420 nm to the
south of Hurricane Delta, between 91W and 95W. The center of
Hurricane DELTA is moving northward, toward the coast of SW
Louisiana. Hurricane conditions, and a life-threatening storm surge,
are expected to reach the northern sections of the coast of the Gulf
of Mexico later today. The hazards that will be affecting the land
are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane
conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin
along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on
Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more
details.

Delta will move inland to 30.0N 93.0W this evening and weaken to
a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.8W Sat morning. Delta will weaken
to a tropical depression near 33.7N 90.2W Sat evening and reach
35.0N 88.4W Sun morning. Delta is expected to become a remnant
low in Tennessee Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. In its
wake, weak high pressure will build across the area into early
next week. Swell from Delta will spread across the Gulf of
Mexico into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, about halfway between NW
Cuba and the eastern sections of Honduras. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within
360 nm of the cyclonic center in the southern semicircle,
between 80W and the Gulf of Honduras.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb trough shows
up well, in the GFE model field, vertically stacked with respect
to the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the NE of the tropical
wave, and within 820 nm to the east and southeast of the
tropical wave. All the precipitation is occurring from 10N to
25N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 15N to 16N. Isolated moderate is between 72W
and the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between the tropical wave and 80W from 15N to 20N.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is
from the monsoon trough to 15N from 80W westward, in the waters
of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic Ocean will
support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south
central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight
seas elsewhere into Saturday. The winds and the seas will diminish
across the basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts
east. A tropical wave may impact the Atlantic Ocean waters to the
east of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W, to 27N70W, to NE Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolate to widely scattered strong covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between 43W and 57W.

A surface trough is along 36W/37W, from 16N to 31N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the trough,
from 23N northward.

The current cold front will stall along roughly 26N later today. The
western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front
through early Sat. Behind the front, a tightening gradient will
bring fresh northeast to east winds over most of the northern waters
Fri through late Sat. A weak pressure pattern will allow for gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas from Sun into early
next week.

$$
mt
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279
AXNT20 KNHC 101158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Delta is inland near 31.8N 91.8W or about 45 miles south-southeast of Monroe, Louisiana. Estimated minimum central
pressure has risen to 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds have
diminished to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows
decreasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
removed to the northeast of the center over central Mississippi
and into western Alabama. Widespread rain areas with embedded
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over
northern and central Arkansas and spreading eastward to western
and central Tennessee. A 60 to 75 nm wide band of scattered
showers and associated with Delta extends from south-central
Alabama near 31N87W southwestward to Pensacola and to the Gulf
waters near 28N89W. The west side of this band extends to the
Mobile Bay area. Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5
inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches for
northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western Mississippi,
These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream,
and minor river flooding. Delta will begin a motion toward the
northeast later today and continue through Sun night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move across northeastern
Louisiana this morning, then across northeastern Louisiana this
morning and then across northern Mississippi and into the
Tennessee Valley later today and Sun. Delta is forecast to weaken
to a tropical depression this afternoon over west- central
Mississippi. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N-17N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is in an increasing trend in an inverted-V shape
pattern noted across the wave from 09N to 14N between 33W and 40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 19N between 35W-
39W. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow
development of this system later this weekend or early next week
as it moves westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.
This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within
48 hours and through 5 days.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W and
south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are increasing from north to 15N to Puerto
Rico and between 65-70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south
of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N
to 14N and near the northern part of the wave from 17N to 20N
between 77W-79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from enters the Atlantic Ocean
near the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W and drops
southwestward to 10N23W and to 07N30W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 07N35W. It resumes west of a tropical wave at 07N40W to 09N50W
and to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 40W-43W and between 51W-54W. Similar
activity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 25W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Now that Delta has moved inland and continues to pull farther
away from the area, relatively weak high pressure from the western
Atlantic has settled in over the area. A slackening of the
gradient will allow for winds in the northern Gulf of Mexico to
decrease to below 20 kt by early this afternoon and seas there
will gradually subside to below 8 ft late this afternoon.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed just
north of the Yucatan Channel from 22N to 24N between 85W-86W.

The forecast calls for Delta to continue to move well inland
through late Sun night and dissipate Mon afternoon. In its wake,
weak high pressure will continue to build across the area into
early next week. A weak trough associated with the remnants of
Delta will move across the north-central Gulf Sat and Sat night
and across the eastern Gulf Sun and Sun and Sun night. Swell from
Delta will continue over most of the area through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The only significant shower and thunderstorm activity currently
over the Caribbean Sea are associated with the two tropical waves
over the basin. See the tropical waves section above for details.
An overnight ASCAT pass showed fresh trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean and to the north of eastern Honduras. Gentle to
locally moderate winds cover the remainder of the basin.

The forecast calls for the fresh trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean to pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon.
Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little
through the period. Seas will be in the slight range, except for
moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean into next week. The
tropical wave that is presently along 37W may bring higher winds
and building seas to the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
Islands Tue through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southwest periphery of high pressure centered well north of
the area near 37N67W extends south-southwestward toward the
western half of the area. The gradient between the high pressure
and Delta well northwest of the area is allowing for fresh
southeast winds to occur over the northwest waters. These winds
will diminish to moderate speeds Sun as Delta pulls farther to the
northeast.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 21N to 25N between
76W-79W, including the central section of Cuba. Similar activity
moving northwestward is north of 25N between 78W and the Florida
coast. This activity is expected to increase today as very moist
southerly flow between the western Atlantic high pressure and
Delta well to northwest of the area is pulled northward leading to
more shower and thunderstorm activity over far western waters.

A sharp upper-level trough stretches from near 32N53W to near
23N56W. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from a
1015 mb low just north of the area at 33N52W southwest to
27N62W. A trough ahead of it is along a position from 32N51W to
25N51W and to just northeast of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 180 nm southeast and south of the
surface trough between 56W-62W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 18N to 22N between 62W-68W and from 19N to
20N between 61W-62W. Another surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from near 28N41W to 21N42W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough from 22N to
25N. Isolated weak showers moving westward are elsewhere from 12N
to 20N between 45W-61W. A far eastern Atlantic trough extends
from 31N26W to 27N23W as was highlighted by an overnight ASCAT
pass. Over the far eastern part of the area, moderate to fresh
trade winds are from 14N-25N between 40W and the coast of Africa,
while fresh to locally strong northeast winds are from 18N-25N
east of 27W. Generally, gentle to moderate winds under a weak
gradient are over the remainder of the tropical and subtropical
Atlantic between 40W-75W.

As for the forecast, high pressure over the northern and central
waters that extends southwestward toward western half of the area
will begin to shift east-northeast tonight through Mon in
response to a weak trough that will move over the northwest part
of the area. The trough will reach from near 31N74W to the NW
Bahamas and to S Florida on Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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134
AXNT20 KNHC 111714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been repositioned based on latest scatterometer
data and satellite signature. The wave's axis extends along 44W from
00N-17N. Its estimated movement is west at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer
data depicts very well the characteristic wind shift, with moderate
to fresh winds in the vicinity of the wave's axis. At this time,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-17N between 41W-47W.
Slight development of this system is possible during the next two or
three days while the system moves westward. Upper- level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle
of the week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation within 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more
details.

A tropical wave extends across the E Caribbean, with axis S of 22N
and along 68W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 16N-22N between 65W-69W.

A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC's
waters, with axis along 86W from 01N-20N, moving west at around 10
kt. Scattered showers prevail along the boundary at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 17N17W
to 09N27W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 06N38W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015
mb high centered near 25N92W. A surface trough is analyzed over
northern Florida north of 29N and along 86W. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the western half
of the basin, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over
the eastern Gulf.

Moderate SW winds in the NE gulf will diminish this
evening. Weak high pressure will establish across the basin
afterwards providing light to gentle variable wind through Tue.
Light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the remainder
forecast period ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW basin early on Fri. Fresh to strong NNE winds will follow
this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There are two tropical waves across the basin. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-
central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate
to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras
will diminish tonight. A strong tropical wave, currently near
44W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the
Caribbean waters through the week. Scattered moderate convection
are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses
westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change
little through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

There is a tropical wave moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

The main feature across the basin is the tail of a weakening
stationary front that extends from 31N56W to 25N63W. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 34N41W to 29N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 25N-34N between 40W-46W. Surface high
pressure dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging extending over the west Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a
weak cold front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent
waters early on Mon. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros
Island by Tue morning before dissipating NE of the central
Bahamas on Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will
dominate the region the remainder forecast period.

$$

ERA
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833
AXNT20 KNHC 121047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-22N with axis near 48W, moving
west about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N-22N between 42W-54W. Some slight
development is possible during the next day or so while the
disturbance moves generally westward. Strong upper-level winds
are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 71W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over Jamaica
and Hispaniola adjacent waters as the wave traverses the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 05N37W to 07N45W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near
48W, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N E of 23W, and
from 07N-10N between 31W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extending from 26N82W to 24N88W will exit the
basin later today while weak high pressure continues to build
across the basin. The high will support light to gentle variable
wind through early on Tue. Light to moderate N to NE wind will
dominate afterwards through Thu evening. The next cold front will
come off the coast of Texas Thu night and extend from Tampa Bay to
the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night. Fresh to strong NNE winds will
follow this front.

Otherwise, aside from scattered showers off the western coast of
the Yucatan pensinsula due to the pressence of a surface trough,
fair weather conditions are elsewhere and are expected to continue
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central basin, supporting
showers and tstms. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above
for further details.

Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW basin supported by the
EPAC monsoon trough while the base of an upper level trough
extends to the E Caribbean, thus supporting isolated showers over
the Lesser Antilles adjacent waters.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean
will diminish to moderate this evening. A tropical wave with axis
near 48W, and with low chance of cyclone formation within the next
2 days, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to
the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E
Caribbean Tue through Sat night. Rainshowers are expected over
this area as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate ENE winds elsewhere will change little through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave with low chance of cyclone development within the
next 2 days is moving across the central Atlc with fresh to strong
winds and scattered showers associated with it. Please, refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for further details.

Moderate to locally fresh return flow ahead of a weak
cold front extending from 31N77W to the coast of central Florida
near 27N80W will diminish tonight. The front will extend from
30N75W to Great Abaco Island tonight, from 30N72W to 27N74W Tue
night before dissipating farther NE on Wed night. Mainly light
to gentle variable winds will dominate the SW N Atlc region the
remainder forecast period, except S of 22N where the passage of a
tropical wave over the E Caribbean will support moderate to
locally fresh winds Thu and Fri.

The remainder central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of
the Azores high. Otherwise, an upper level trough support a pair
of surface troughs that are generating scattered showers and tstms
N of 22N between 39W and 56W.

$$
Ramos
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824
AXNT20 KNHC 131756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 17W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
along the wave from 04N-17N between 15W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 36W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the wave
near 13N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is just to the east of the low from 12N-15N between 51W-54W.
Seas are up to 11 ft near the low. Upper-level winds are
gradually becoming less conducive, so only some slight
development is possible today while the system moves westward. By
tonight, upper-level winds are expected to become even less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system
has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours and the
next 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 78W from
22N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
seen within 75 nm of the wave from 15N-22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the Senegal coast near 13N17W
to 07N31W. The ITCZ continues from 07N31W to 09N41W, then
continues from 09N42W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of
the monsoon trough between 17W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing off the NW Gulf coast, stretching
from the central Louisiana coast near 29N91W to the middle
Texas coast near 27N97W. No significant convection is
associated with this front. A trough in the southern Bay of
Campeche is analyzed from 22N92W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the Mexican coast near Tampico, from
21N-24N between 96W-99W. Otherwise, high pressure is building
across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE winds are
behind the cold front with gentle winds across the rest of the
basin with calm seas.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu.
The cold front will stall later today before dissipating at
night. A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Fri
and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri
evening. The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat
night. Fresh to strong NNE winds are expected behind the front
through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the central Caribbean tropical wave.

A surface trough is noted near the Mona Passage from 21N66W to
16N70W. Thunderstorms are noted across eastern Hispaniola.
Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the Lesser Antilles and
the eastern Caribbean from 12N-18N between 60W-67W. The monsoon
trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 11N76W to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border near 11N84W with a 1010 mb low near
10N78W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along
the monsoon trough from 09N-13N between 74W-84W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N
between 82W-86W. Light to gentle trade winds prevail across the
basin with moderate trades north of Colombia. Seas average 3-5
ft.

A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building
seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles today and
Wed, and to the eastern half of the Caribbean Wed through Sat
night. Moderate trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
increase to fresh speeds Thu evening as high pressure
establishes N of the area. These winds will prevail through the
weekend, increasing to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the Atlantic tropical waves.

A trough off the Florida coast in the western Atlantic extends
from 30N77W to 28N80W. The dying cold front extends across the
western Atlantic to the Bahamas from 30N72W to 24N79W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and east of this boundary from 24N-
31N between 69W-79W.

A trough in the west-central Atlantic is analyzed from 29N60W to
24N68W. A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 32N52W with a trough
extending south of the low to 29N57W. A 1017 mb low is analyzed
near 27N43W with a trough extending along the low from 31N43W to
24N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between these
features from 18N-29N between 39W-59W. In the eastern Atlantic, a
1014 mb low is near 29N25W with a trough extending along the low
and off the Western Sahara coast from 35N31W to 21N17W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N-33N between 24W-
30W. Gentle to light winds prevail across the basin with seas
averaging 3-6 ft.

The dying cold front will extend from 31N72W to near 26N74W this
evening, before dissipating early on Wed. A second cold front
will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri evening and
extend from 31N71W to near 26N80W Sat evening. Fresh to strong
NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and will affect
the waters N of 27N.

$$

AReinhart
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771
AXNT20 KNHC 141818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 12N-18N between 19W-25W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the remainder
of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 15N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is from 08N-14N between 40W-49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low is along the
wave axis near near 14.5N. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N-19N between 50W-62W. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
inhibit significant development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles
today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and
Hispaniola on Friday. This system has a low chance of
development through the next 48 hours. Please, read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

A W Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from Cuba
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within
240 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea, near 11N15W, to
05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes
W of a tropical wave near 09N49W to the coast of Guyana near
06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between
15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to
16N94W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis.
The remainder of the Gulf is under surface ridging with mostly
fair weather.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening, then
stall and weaken over the SE Gulf by Sat night. Fresh NE
winds are expected north of the front Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean and another wave is
approaching the E Caribbean. A surface trough is over the
central Caribbean from 18N74W to 10N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-14N between 73W-80W. This convection
is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A tropical wave will move through the Lesser Antilles
later today and tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will
follow in behind the wave to the Leeward Islands tonight, then
move into the NE Caribbean on Thu and reach the Mona Passage
early Fri. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central
Caribbean Thu evening as high pressure builds north of the area.
These winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W 26N75W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic
near 33N28W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, and
extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, where it
will stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected north of the front this
weekend.

$$
Formosa
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496
AXNT20 KNHC 151715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers
are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea along 63W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate
convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-17N between 54W-62W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche, from
21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
07N21W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 08N46W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A
broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the
coast of Mexico near 20N. The tail-end of a stationary front is
over the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 23N83W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Fri and
extend from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico Mexico Fri
evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over the Yucatan Channel from
20N-23N between 84W-86W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia across
Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate
convection is from 08N to 17N between 73W and 84W.

An active tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 63W. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the next few days. The wave will reach the Mona
Passage on Fri. Winds will increase in the south-central
Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds N of the area. A broad
area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from 31N64W to 25N70W to the
Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. The tail-end of a prefrontal trough extends
from 31N55W to 27N54W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the trough. The tail-end of another trough is over the central
Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N42W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm E of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E
Atlantic near 32N28W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, extend
from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, then stall and
dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected north of the front this weekend. A broad non-tropical
low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The pressure gradient
between the low center and high pressure to the north will bring
an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters by Sun
evening.

$$
Formosa
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746
AXNT20 KNHC 191705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.6N
55.3W, or 639 miles SE of Bermuda, and is currently stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 16 ft
with 12 ft seas extending 300 nm in the northern semicircle and
60 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is
within 400 nm in the eastern semicircle and 140 nm within the NW
quadrant. Epsilon is expected to have little overall motion
through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward
motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue
through midweek. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 72 hours, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength by early Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml or
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 40W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection
is related with this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 48W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from
18N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W, from
23N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted west of the wave's axis from 15N-22N between
82W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 07N39W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 06N48W. The
last section of ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave
near 06N49W to just north of Suriname near 06N56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon
trough from 02N-11N between 09W-22W. Isolated convection is
noted within 50 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to sprawl across the Gulf of Mexico
anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the south-central Gulf. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to
moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft
with upwards of 7-8 ft in the eastern Gulf.

A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters.
The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the
eastern Gulf, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and
building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

A 1006 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N79W with a
trough extending north of the low to just south of western Cuba
near 21N82W. The monsoon trough extends off the low to the coast
of Costa Rica near 09N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean from 09N-
22N between 73W-74W. Moderate trades are in the central
Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3-
5 ft.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland the
Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on Tue. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave. A broad area
of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the
southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system
is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward
or north- northwestward over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A trough west of the Lesser Antilles is noted from 15N57W to
10N59W with no significant convection. Another trough is
analyzed in the central Atlantic from 2N42W to 14N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and north of the trough
from 18N-23N between 37W-44W. In the eastern Atlantic, a
stationary front extends from 31N21W to a 1010 mb low near
30N33W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of
this low in addition to moderate to locally fresh SW winds south
of the stationary front. A trough extends westward to near
27N48W. Scattered moderate convection is along this system from
24N-30N between 19W-45W. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to
fresh easterly winds are noted in the western Atlantic off the
coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas
average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin.

Recently formed Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 25.8N
55.1W this evening, to near 26.4N 55.4W early Tue with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 27.6N 56.7W Tue
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then
continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 28.3N 58.5W
early Wed with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and
strengthen to a hurricane near 29.1N 59.8W Wed evening with
maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Epsilon is forecast
to reach near 30.2N 60.8W early Thu with maximum sustained winds
70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 32.3N 62.7W early Fri. The
pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to
east winds over the western waters through most of Thu. Expect
for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas through the period.

$$
AReinhart
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111
AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 26.5N 55.0W at 20/1500
UTC or 615 nm ESE of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are up to 24 ft, with 12 ft
seas extending 540 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 270 nm SW
quadrant, and 480 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection extends outward 420 nm from the center in the
NE quadrant, 390 nm SE quad, 90 nm SW quad and 120 nm NW quad. A
NW motion with a slightly faster forward speed is forecast over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is
forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its
closest approach to the island on Friday. Gradual strengthening
is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thursday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N14W to
the Canary Islands near 28N18W to 27N25W. An ASCAT pass from
around 20/1000 UTC showed gale force SSW winds to 35 kt along and
within 30 nm east of the cold front from 30N northward. The cold
front is moving eastward. According to Meteo France, the Gale
Warning has expired as of 20/1500 UTC. Please see the latest High
Seas Forecast and High Seas Warning products from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from
from 02N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-12N between 20W-32W.

The Atlantic tropical wave that was analyzed along 44W at 20/0600
UTC has been relocated slightly eastward to 42W, from 03N-17N,
based on recent satellite data. The wave is moving W around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between
36W-43W.

An Atlantic tropical wave that was analyzed along 53W at 20/0600
UTC has dissipated and has been removed from the analysis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W from
05N-18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is
seen from 10N-14N between 69W-72W.

A tropical wave along 88W from 20N southward into the East
Pacific is moving inland over Belize and Central America. The
tropical wave is moving W at 10 kt. Convection associated
with this wave is confined to the Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N40W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N44W to 10N51W to 10N59W.
Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers are near the ITCZ between
45W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 24N87.5W to a 1007 mb low just E of
Cozumel Mexico near 21N86W. The pressure gradient between the low
near Cozumel and a 1023 mb high over the SE U.S. near 34N85W is
producing strong E winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from
23.5N-28N, between 90W and Florida. A significant wave height of
9 ft was recently observed by buoy 42003 at 25.9N 85.6W. In the
mid-levels, a mid-level low is present over and just east of the
surface low near Cozumel. Abundant moisture and upper-level
diffluence over the area are enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico mainly south of
27.5N and east of 89W, including over portions of South Florida.

The strong easterly winds and building seas will continue over
the southeast Gulf through early Thu. Gentle to moderate winds
under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 24N87.5W to a 1007 mb low just E of
Cozumel Mexico near 21N86W to another 1007 mb low in the SW
Caribbean near 13N81W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms prevail across the entire western and central Caribbean,
west of 72W. Scattered strong convection is occurring east of a
tropical wave, from 10N-14N between 69W-72W. Comparatively drier
air is seen over the remainder of the eastern Caribbean. A recent
ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate trades across most of
the basin, with locally fresh SE winds seen south of west-central
Cuba.

The large low pressure trough over the western Caribbean will
drift westward over the next couple of days, enhancing shower and
thunderstorm activity across the western Caribbean and adjacent
land areas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A surface trough extends from 21N58W to 21N63W to 22N68W. A tail
of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery extending from south
of T.S. Epsilon, over the surface trough, and then continuing to
25N75W through the NW Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms prevail within 60 nm either side of
the surface trough and moisture plume between 59W-81W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds from 23N-30N between
63W-74W. Fresh E winds are from 25N-32N between 74W-81W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 25N47W to 28N40W to
28N35W. Isolated strong convection is from 24N-29N between
34W-40W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 24N30W. A cold front is
from 32N14W to the Canary Islands near 28N18W to 27N25W.
Scattered moderate convection is east of the cold front, mainly
north of 28N and east of 14W. See the Special Features section
above for details on the Gale Warning associated with this cold
front. A recent ASCAT pass shows that winds in excess of 25 kt
associated with the circulation of T.S. Epsilon prevail across
the basin from 21N-37N between 42W-63W.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 28N58W Wed morning,
then strengthen to a hurricane near 31N61W Thu evening and to
near 34.5N61W Sat morning. The pressure gradient between high
pressure over the SE U.S. and Epsilon will maintain fresh
to strong northeast to east winds over the waters west of 65W
through Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Saturday.

$$

Hagen
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475
AXNT20 KNHC 231752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 34.1N 61.6W at 23/1500 UTC,
or 195 nm NE of Bermuda, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-forced winds are within
220 nm in the eastern semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant, and
180 nm in the NW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted
within 420 nm in the NE quadrant, 480 nm in the NW quadrant and
360 nm in the eastern semicircle with seas to 34 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 300 nm in the northern semicircle.
Epsilon will continue moving northward with increasing forward
speed through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion
toward the northeast early next week. Some fluctuations in
strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual
weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical
characteristics late Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

A 1008 mb low located near 19N82W is producing scattered
moderate convection mainly east and south of the center from 14N-
22N between 76W-84W. This system has become much better
organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward
the northwest. This system is now anticipated to move near
western Cuba this weekend and move slowly across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48
hours and the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 26W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 24W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 49W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is located from 07N-13N between
47W-52W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 61W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 kt and is crossing the Lesser
Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between
59W-62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N25W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N27W to 05N48W. The
ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near 05N50W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is located in the SE Bay of Campeche near 20N91W
with a trough extending NW of the low to 22N94W. Scattered
showers are noted along the coast of Mexico near this low.
Scattered moderate convection is in the northern and eastern
Gulf, N of 25N between 82W-88W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
noted off the coast of Louisiana. Light to moderate easterly
winds are in the eastern Gulf with light winds elsewhere. Seas
are averaging 3-4 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf through Sat. Low pressure may track northeastward from
western Cuba across the extreme SE Gulf and Florida Straits Sun.
This low has a medium chance of tropical formation. Regardless
of development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and
South Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Sat morning, weaken further into a surface
trough from northern Florida into the SW Gulf Sat night, then
stall from South Florida to just north of the Yucatan by Sun
night. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the
basin on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

See the Special Features section on the low pressure in the NW
Caribbean.

A 1008 mb low is located in the SW Caribbean near 10N75W with a
trough extending north of the low to 13N78W. The monsoon trough
extends west of the low to the coast of Panama/Colombia near
09N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between
73W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the SE Caribbean
from 11N-13N between 62W-65W. Moderate to fresh trades are in
the south-central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the
central Caribbean.

Weak low pressure near Grand Cayman Island is a little
more organized. There is a medium chance this low will develop
into a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it
moves to near western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf by
early next week, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could
impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward
Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between
this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section above for
information on the tropical waves crossing the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends off the northeastern Florida coast from
30N81W to 32N80W. Another trough extends north of Haiti across
the Turks and Caicos Islands from 20N72W to 25N69W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 50 nm of the trough. Scattered
moderate convection is SE of Hurricane Epsilon in the central
Atlantic, N of 21N between 51W-63W. Otherwise, ridging extends
across the rest of the Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high near
34N37W. Moderate easterly winds are noted off the Florida coast
and across the Bahamas with seas averaging 9-12 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Atlantic with
seas averaging 8-12 ft.

Hurricane Epsilon is well north of the area to the northeast
of Bermuda and is expected to continue northward and become
extratropical east of Newfoundland Sun. Long- period northeast
swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of
the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from
Central Cuba has a medium chance of tropical formation early
next week over waters near South Florida and the northern and
central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this
weekend through early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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