1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0531

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 26, 2018 18:07:48
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1527358073-1857-3961
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 261807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261807
    MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-262030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0531
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of western Idaho...far northeast
    Nevada...far southwest Montana...far southeast Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261807Z - 262030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity over
    the next few hours. An isolated severe hail/wind threat will exist
    with the strongest storms into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite/radar imagery and NLDN cloud-to-ground
    lightning data at 1800Z shows thunderstorms are beginning to develop
    over the discussion area. These storms are forming in an environment characterized by MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of
    25-35 knots -- according to RAP mesoanalysis. Morning CAM guidance
    suggests that thunderstorms will increase in coverage/organization
    into the afternoon as continued strong isolation further
    destabilizes the air mass. While the strongest storms in this
    environment will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and
    marginally severe hail, the coverage of these threats is currently
    expected to remain too low for a WW issuance.

    ..Elliott/Hart.. 05/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

    LAT...LON 43241738 44511671 45151595 45741481 45831403 45611354
    45131329 44501336 43271353 42201374 41571406 41181467
    41141574 41491682 42061733 43241738



    ------------=_1527358073-1857-3961
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1527358073-1857-3961--

    --- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
    * Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 18:58:50
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1556996340-1967-8308
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 041858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041858
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-042100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0531
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

    Areas affected...Central/southwest NE...Far Northwest KS...Far
    Northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 041858Z - 042100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and strong wind
    gusts are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed from southwest
    into north-central NE, along a weakly confluent surface boundary.
    Despite relatively meager low-level moisture, cold midlevel
    temperatures and steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg across the area. While modest effective shear should
    generally limit storm organization, multicells capable of isolated
    hail will be possible as storms mature this afternoon. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates may also support isolated strong wind gusts.
    Due to the relatively limited coverage and magnitude of the risk,
    watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39750246 40490163 41410090 42260036 42819944 42709760
    41539783 40619897 39720056 39570207 39750246



    ------------=_1556996340-1967-8308
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1556996340-1967-8308--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)