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ACUS11 KWNS 261710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261709
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...From northeast New York across Vermont...New
Hampshire...and into far southern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261709Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop over the
next 2-3 hours, with a few strong wind gusts or small hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows CU increasing near a front from
northeastern NY toward southern ME. A warm air mass exists to the
south across southern New England, and some further heating will
occur through broken clouds near the front. Low-level flow is a bit
veered, but glancing warm advection is possible into the area,
aiding the development of weak instability. Mean wind speeds in the
low-levels are relatively weak, but increasing flow aloft may yield
a few semi-organized, persistent storms, thereby maximizing the
probability of a strong wind gust or small hail report.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44117378 44077294 44037210 43827085 43727045 43587011
43057007 42617036 42487087 43087308 43407365 43667396
43887397 44117378



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ACUS11 KWNS 041651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041650
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi...central and southern
Arkansas...far western Georgia...and the western half of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 041650Z - 041815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe -- and possibly isolated tornado -- risk is
expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours, with watch issuance
becoming increasingly likely over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Despite a plume of high-level cloud cover spreading
east across the central Gulf Coast region, objective analysis shows
that heating via filtered sunshine of the moist Gulf airmass across
the discussion area is resulting in a gradually destabilizing
environment, with mixed-layer CAPE now near 1500 J/kg. As a result,
continued eastward advance of the fairly well-organized convective
line crossing far eastern Louisiana is observed, with additional,
pre-line cellular development also noted over southeast Mississippi.

As modest additional destabilization supports further increases in
storm coverage/intensity, the moderate west-southwest deep-layer
wind field observed across the area should also help to sustain
storm organization and some intensification over the next several
hours. While flow is generally unidirectional/southwesterly across
much of the region, suggesting that damaging outflow winds will be
the main severe risk, some backing of the low-level flow is noted
over southern portions of the area near the Gulf coast. Here, some
enhancement to tornado potential is apparent -- and indeed some
rotation/small circulations have been observed at times within the
convective band. As such, we will continue to monitor environmental
and convective evolution, as it pertains to potential watch type.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29028915 29688934 30398967 31098963 32098891 33028741
33468574 33038502 31878479 30808489 30028579 29558729
29258794 29028915



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ACUS11 KWNS 041658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041658 COR
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi...central and southern
Alabama...far western Georgia...and the western half of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 041658Z - 041815Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE ARKANSAS TO ALABAMA IN THE GEOGRAPHIC HEADER

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe -- and possibly isolated tornado -- risk is
expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours, with watch issuance
becoming increasingly likely over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Despite a plume of high-level cloud cover spreading
east across the central Gulf Coast region, objective analysis shows
that heating via filtered sunshine of the moist Gulf airmass across
the discussion area is resulting in a gradually destabilizing
environment, with mixed-layer CAPE now near 1500 J/kg. As a result,
continued eastward advance of the fairly well-organized convective
line crossing far eastern Louisiana is observed, with additional,
pre-line cellular development also noted over southeast Mississippi.

As modest additional destabilization supports further increases in
storm coverage/intensity, the moderate west-southwest deep-layer
wind field observed across the area should also help to sustain
storm organization and some intensification over the next several
hours. While flow is generally unidirectional/southwesterly across
much of the region, suggesting that damaging outflow winds will be
the main severe risk, some backing of the low-level flow is noted
over southern portions of the area near the Gulf coast. Here, some
enhancement to tornado potential is apparent -- and indeed some
rotation/small circulations have been observed at times within the
convective band. As such, we will continue to monitor environmental
and convective evolution, as it pertains to potential watch type.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29028915 29688934 30398967 31098963 32098891 33028741
33468574 33038502 31878479 30808489 30028579 29558729
29258794 29028915



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