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ACUS11 KWNS 261641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261640
MIZ000-WIZ000-261915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Parts of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261640Z - 261915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
several hours, with large hail the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have already formed across the northern
U.P. of MI within a weak low pressure trough, and on the southern
shore of Lake Superior. Strong heating will persist across this
area, with cool midlevel temperatures with the shortwave trough
enhanced lapse rates. The current activity is expected to continue southeastward, then propagate southward into northeast WI as
relatively warm air feeds in from the west. Shear profiles will
remain weak, but will favor southward-turning cells capable of hail.
A localized wind threat may also materialize should cells
conglomerate outflows.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44548744 44328811 44518889 45058933 45798935 46458914
46848877 46988841 46958802 46758755 46598700 46558650
46348622 45788625 44548744



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ACUS11 KWNS 261643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261643 COR
MIZ000-WIZ000-261915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261643Z - 261915Z

CORRECTED FOR HEADER

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
several hours, with large hail the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have already formed across the northern
U.P. of MI within a weak low pressure trough, and on the southern
shore of Lake Superior. Strong heating will persist across this
area, with cool midlevel temperatures with the shortwave trough
enhanced lapse rates. The current activity is expected to continue southeastward, then propagate southward into northeast WI as
relatively warm air feeds in from the west. Shear profiles will
remain weak, but will favor southward-turning cells capable of hail.
A localized wind threat may also materialize should cells
conglomerate outflows.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44548744 44328811 44518889 45058933 45798935 46458914
46848877 46988841 46958802 46758755 46598700 46558650
46348622 45788625 44548744



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ACUS11 KWNS 041442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041441
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...parts of eastern Tennessee...northern Georgia...and
western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041441Z - 041615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty/locally
damaging winds -- exists over portions of the southern Appalachians,
though WW is not anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weak remnant convective
circulation moving northeast across middle Tennessee, with a leading
band of organized storms near the Tennessee/Georgia border. The
storms are moving through an environment characterized by rather
weak lapse rates aloft/modest instability (at or below 500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE), and moderate deep-layer flow (low- to mid-level
flow 20 to 30 kt from the west-southwest).

Given limitations of both the kinematic and thermodynamic
environment, severe risk should remain limited. However, given the
linearly organized/weakly bowing nature of the convective band, and
enhanced forward motion (east-northeast at around 30 kt), gusty
winds, and some sporadic tree/limb damage appears possible.

While WW is not anticipated in the short term, downstream/diurnal destabilization over the next several hours may support an increase
in storm intensity, and corresponding potential need for WW
issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...

LAT...LON 34708531 35598563 36138350 36138260 35838251 35118300
34378374 33828477 33588538 34708531



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