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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0231

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 24, 2019 19:54:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 241854
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241853
    ILZ000-MOZ000-242130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0231
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0153 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

    Areas affected...Central/southern Missouri eastward into southern
    Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 241853Z - 242130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase across the discussion
    area over the course of the afternoon, with initial development
    occurring in the 20-22Z timeframe. A WW is likely to be issued
    before 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest observations and analyses indicate a deepening
    boundary layer cumulus field across central/south-central Missouri
    as surface temperatures warm into the mid 60s F. This warming was
    occurring beneath cold mid-levels (associated with a mid-level low
    over northwestern Missouri) and steep lapse rates (8.6 deg C/km on
    the 18Z RAOB from SGF). Storms should gradually develop across
    western and central portions of the discussion area as the weak
    mid-level inversion across the area erodes, with favorable shear
    profiles for updraft rotation. Hail and damaging wind gusts should
    be the primary threats. The 12Z Nam4 and latest runs of the HRRR
    suggest initiation occurring around 19-20Z and downstream
    propagation toward the St. Louis Metro and portions of southern
    Illinois over time.

    Given the expected evolution of the severe threat, a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed before 21Z.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 03/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37739334 38329277 38589207 38849112 38989003 38918913
    38698873 38028880 37338916 37058951 36728977 36619025
    36519104 36519218 36619317 36679367 36909384 37209375
    37739334



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