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ACUS11 KWNS 232308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232307
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Areas affected...Southern/Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

Valid 232307Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat within WW31 continues with large hail,
strong winds, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado possible. Farther
south in north Texas, a storm or two may develop and become severe
in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A severe storm with a history of large hail is moving
east of Oklahoma City. This storm should maintain its intensity for
the next hour or two before weakening and/or becoming elevated as it
reaches a more stable environment. A couple of other updrafts are
maturing in southern Oklahoma just north of the Red River within in
environment characterized by 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 knots
of effective bulk shear. However, surface convergence is weaker than
in central Oklahoma and warming 850 hPa temperatures/cooling surface temperatures may limit intensification and duration of a storm in
this area. More storms may develop along the dryline and outflow
from the severe storm near OKC in the next couple of hours across
central Oklahoma, but there remains uncertainty to convective
initiation and intensity with this possible scenario.

Storms are trying to initiate west of Ft. Worth along the dryline.
Surface convergence is more diffuse than in central Oklahoma, but a
few surface wind observations have backed slightly to the southeast
in the last two hours, which corresponded to maturing updrafts in
the Cu field. A storm or two may develop and move east/northeast
across north Texas in the next hour or two, and any storm that
develops could become strong/severe with hail/wind as the primary
threats.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34119562 33769677 33499704 33009756 32669788 32629802
32579835 32779862 32979874 33259868 33649852 33949838
34319822 34759814 35249808 35869777 36139756 36189707
36199663 36169622 36129594 35899581 35569569 35059563
34449563 34119562



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