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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0228

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 23, 2019 20:56:47
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231956
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231956
    KSZ000-NEZ000-232200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

    Areas affected...north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 231956Z - 232200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
    within a low-level-directional-sheared environment. Although
    instability will remain limited, small hail and a brief tornado or
    two may be possible.

    DISCUSSION...A strong surface low will move east-northeast, across
    northwest Kansas, this afternoon and evening. Although instability
    is limited along and ahead of this surface low, strong large-scale
    ascent, steep midlevel-lapse rates, and little-if-any convective
    inhibition will promote the development of isolated thunderstorms
    this afternoon and early evening. The large-scale wind field is
    relatively weak across the area, but does exhibit strong low-level
    direction shear. Thus, even though thunderstorm updrafts may not be
    capable of sustained mid-level rotation, shallow, transient
    mesocyclones will be possible with any discrete thunderstorm.
    Additionally, cold midlevel temperatures will also support the
    potential for small hail/graupel with any sustained updraft. The
    threat should quickly end with the loss of diurnal heating. A watch
    is currently not expected.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 03/23/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38709927 39649985 40589701 39479656 37959697 38709927



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