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ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231933
OKZ000-TXZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma into north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231933Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across
portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. These thunderstorms would be
capable of gusty winds and large hail, although a brief tornado or
two cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Skies have mostly cleared across Oklahoma in the wake
of earlier convection. Additionally, south-southeasterly winds have
contributed to modest low-level moisture return as indicated by
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50Fs. The combination of
increasing insolation, steep midlevel-lapse rates, and modest
surface moisture has resulted in between 500-1000 J/kg of
mixed-layer CAPE.

Recent trends in the cumulus field indicates the presence of a
stable layer across the region. RAP forecast soundings, and HRRR
model reflectivity trends, indicate the combination of surface
temperatures approaching 70F and large-scale lift will be enough to
erode this stable layer during the afternoon. The result should be
an increasing threat of thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and gusty winds during the late afternoon into the evening.
Wind fields veer with height and would generally be supportive of
updraft rotation. However, generally poor low-level moisture and
weak low-level wind fields should preclude a greater tornado threat.


At this time, confidence in thunderstorm coverage remains fairly low
and the need for a watch is uncertain. However, trends will continue
to be monitored.

..Marsh/Hart.. 03/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32439833 36359810 36079553 32629616 32439833



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