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ACUS11 KWNS 221902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221901
TXZ000-NMZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Areas affected...East-central New Mexico into portions of the Texas
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 221901Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a
tornado should gradually increase from west to east across the
discussion area this afternoon. A WW issuance is being considered -
most likely in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent convective trends are on a general uptick near a
lee trough on the western extent of the discussion area. These
trends should continue given approaching ascent and cooling aloft
associated with a shortwave centered near the Four Corners.
Meanwhile, warming surface temperatures (low to mid 60s F) and 45-52
F dewpoints were contributing to weak to moderate surface-based
instability, which should reach 1000-1500 J/kg range through peak
heating as the mid-levels continue to cool. Surface winds in
eastern New Mexico have veered slightly, suggesting a relatively low
tornado threat initially. However, a remnant rain-cooled boundary
persists across the TX Panhandle from near 20 W DHT to near AMA, and
surface winds remain backed to southeasterly in this area. As
storms migrate into the Panhandle, the remaining boundary and modest
increase in low-level flow may support a tornado or two, although
the primary threats with this activity should primarily be hail and
damaging wind gusts.

..Cook/Hart.. 03/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35850420 36060364 36200318 36230258 36140200 35820151
35370140 34990146 34640165 34510178 34190209 34000308
33950402 34440427 35160437 35520434 35850420



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