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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 13, 2018 22:54:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132253
    ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0553 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

    Areas affected...much of Arkansas...northern/central Louisiana...and northeastern Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

    Valid 132253Z - 140030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

    SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 40 continues across the discussion area.
    Some uptick of convection on the southeastern periphery of the watch
    has been noted and may potentially necessitate local spatial
    extensions.

    DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 40.
    Throughout the day, storms have generally struggled to intensify
    above severe levels - probably due to lingering mid-level inhibition
    and less steep lapse rates compared to areas west (i.e., far western
    Arkansas). Latest radar observations/satellite suggests that this
    scenario may be gradually changing as insolation/surface heating has
    resulted in gradually deepening convection in central/northern
    Louisiana an adjacent areas of northeastern Texas. A few of the
    cells in northern Louisiana have exhibited weak rotation in the past
    30 minutes. Surface temperatures have approached 80F in this area,
    supporting moderate instability especially across the southern half
    of the WW area. With time, the combination of storms migrating into
    the watch area from the west, in addition to storms gradually
    increasing in the southern half of the WW, a gradually increasing
    low-level jet, and cooling mid-level temperatures will likely result
    in an increased threat for all severe hazards into the evening
    hours. This includes the potential for a couple of strong
    tornadoes. Furthermore, local spatial extensions of WW 40 may be
    needed if convection organizes further across central/north-central
    Louisiana.

    ..Cook.. 04/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...TSA...
    HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 36559336 36629294 36579169 36529083 36439033 36118996
    35689005 34899043 33819094 33069112 32039173 31579191
    31019246 30649312 30549394 30619461 30989539 31489573
    32299552 32919534 33679510 34239489 34749453 35219414
    36559336



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 28, 2019 13:52:48
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281252
    NEZ000-KSZ000-281445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0752 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 281252Z - 281445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to increase while
    spreading across the region through midday, accompanied by at least
    some risk for severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...A focused area of strengthening large-scale upward
    vertical motion, supported by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
    has contributed to the initiation of vigorous ongoing thunderstorm
    development near the central Kansas/Nebraska border area. Model
    output suggests that this likely will persist and increase,
    gradually spreading eastward and southeastward across the state
    border area through midday.

    Although moisture content remains somewhat modest across this
    region, fairly steep mid-level lapse rates associated with elevated
    mixed-layer air appear to be contributing to most unstable CAPE on
    the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, vertical shear through
    the convective layer appears moderate to strong, though winds in the
    inflow layer may be modest to weak.

    Given this regime, vigorous thunderstorm activity appears likely to
    persist, and gradually organize, with stronger embedded cells
    perhaps occasionally becoming capable of producing marginally severe
    hail. With convection based above a substantive stable layer from
    the surface through around 850 mb, the potential for damaging wind
    gusts appears low through at least early afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/28/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40559916 40649705 40359606 39029621 38919715 39089823
    39879985 40559916



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