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ACUS11 KWNS 200252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200251
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-200445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Parts of west and northwest TX and southwest to
north-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 200251Z - 200445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe-weather threat for mainly large hail and damaging
winds will persist for a few more hours (until at least midnight)
across west Texas to western North Texas to southwest Oklahoma,
while the severe threat extending north-northeast into north-central
Oklahoma may be isolated. WW 109 has been extended in time beyond
03Z, with some areal expansion too.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar and surface observations showed a
convectively enhanced boundary extending generally westward from
Clay County TX through northern Haskell to Yoakum Counties TX. A
30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is providing a feed of moderate
instability into and north of this boundary, enhancing lift for
continued thunderstorm development from west through east of KLBB to
near and north of KSPS. Meanwhile, sporadic strong to severe storms
were developing toward central and north-central OK in vicinity of a
cold front that extended from eastern KS to southwest OK.

Forcing for ascent attendant to low-level warm advection across
northwest TX to southwest OK and along the path of a progressive
shortwave trough moving toward OK is expected to maintain
thunderstorm development through tonight. Residual moderate
instability and strong effective bulk shear should favor continued
potential for organized severe storms in the short term.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33860249 33940058 34319979 35329861 36099796 36859748
37009699 36909627 36479630 35999688 35609751 34599753
34309744 33899758 33539893 33210001 32940148 33040208
33340283 33630267 33860249



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ACUS11 KWNS 200259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200258 COR
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-200445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Parts of west and northwest TX and southwest to
north-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 200258Z - 200445Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO OF WRONG WATCH NUMBER IN THE SUMMARY AND TEXT OF
THE GRAPHIC.

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe-weather threat for mainly large hail and damaging
winds will persist for a few more hours (until at least midnight)
across west Texas to western North Texas to southwest Oklahoma,
while the severe threat extending north-northeast into north-central
Oklahoma may be isolated. WW 108 has been extended in time beyond
03Z, with some areal expansion too.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar and surface observations showed a
convectively enhanced boundary extending generally westward from
Clay County TX through northern Haskell to Yoakum Counties TX. A
30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is providing a feed of moderate
instability into and north of this boundary, enhancing lift for
continued thunderstorm development from west through east of KLBB to
near and north of KSPS. Meanwhile, sporadic strong to severe storms
were developing toward central and north-central OK in vicinity of a
cold front that extended from eastern KS to southwest OK.

Forcing for ascent attendant to low-level warm advection across
northwest TX to southwest OK and along the path of a progressive
shortwave trough moving toward OK is expected to maintain
thunderstorm development through tonight. Residual moderate
instability and strong effective bulk shear should favor continued
potential for organized severe storms in the short term.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33860249 33940058 34319979 35329861 36099796 36859748
37009699 36909627 36479630 35999688 35609751 34599753
34309744 33899758 33539893 33210001 32940148 33040208
33340283 33630267 33860249



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Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 290011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290010
MOZ000-290215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290010Z - 290215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail may continue for the
next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A band of elevated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of
MO is related to the eastern portion of a southerly low-level jet
and moisture return ongoing across the southern/central Plains. One
of these cells recently produced large hail up to 1.25 inches in
diameter just north of Kansas City. The low-level jet is expected to
strengthen to around 40-45 kt this evening, and an increase in
convective coverage appears probable over the next couple of hours.
An elevated mixed layer (noted on the 00Z Topeka sounding) emanating
from the High Plains will gradually steepen mid-level lapse rates
across much of MO, and MUCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg could develop.
Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt will support some supercell
structures, and large hail will be the main threat. The overall
severe risk appears quite isolated, and watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39429443 39729404 39759300 39459193 39039161 38699149
38329177 38159241 38089323 38339415 38699456 39429443



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