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ACUS11 KWNS 200042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200042
TXZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200042Z - 200145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind may occur with storms migrating northeastward across the discussion area, although a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An area of storms initially over higher terrain in
portions of northern Mexico have become loosely organized and
propagated northeastward into the discussion area. These storms
appear to be mostly high-based and rooted atop a weak inversion
located at around 700mb on the 00Z sounding at Del Rio, TX. Deep
shear profiles support some storm organization (owing to 30-50 knot
flow at around 300 mb), although steep mid-level lapse rates (around
8-9 C/km) will support a marginal hail risk with the strongest
activity. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur - especially
near any linear segments that can organize. The threat will be too
isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, however.

..Cook/Hart.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31190152 31680128 32020098 32020005 31539961 30579953
29349991 28860049 28950084 29370127 29740159 30440161
31190152



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ACUS11 KWNS 282354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282354
KSZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...western ks

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 282354Z - 290130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across all but the extreme
northwest portions of ww108.

DISCUSSION...Steep low-level lapse rates appear to have contributed
greatly to thunderstorm development across the central High Plains
late this afternoon. Scattered convection continues to develop
across eastern CO at 2340z, indicative of negligible inhibition.
Leading edge of this activity has evolved into a small complex over
northwest KS as several supercells have merged over Wallace/Logan
counties.

Higher boundary-layer moisture will soon surge into the ingest
region of this complex as mid 50s surface dew points are advancing north-northwest at 25-30kt across the southeast quarter of ww. There
is reason to believe that an upward-evolving MCS may ultimately
propagate east within warm advection zone along/south of the I-70
corridor. Additionally, high-based convection that extends from
Prowers county CO to Finney county KS may eventually strengthen,
though this activity has struggled. Increasing LLJ over the next few
hours could aid this scenario.

..Darrow.. 04/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37050171 39980166 39989959 37059972 37050171



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