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ACUS11 KWNS 200041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200041
MOZ000-KSZ000-200215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Part of eastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109...

Valid 200041Z - 200215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109
continues.

SUMMARY...A stabilizing environment across the remaining portion of
WW 109 (south of I-70) should result in additional counties being
canceled from the watch or an overall early cancellation of the rest
of WW 109 are possible.

DISCUSSION...An extensive cirrus shield that expanded poleward from
the complex of storms that spread from southeast KS into southwest
and central MO late afternoon and early evening has stabilized much
of the environment across WW 109. Although pockets of instability
remain near the cold front, which extended from eastern IA through
northwest MO and northeast KS to northwest OK, increasing
surface-based inhibition should continue to limit the development of
strong updrafts. Meanwhile, a cluster of storms located over
central MO at 0030Z will advance further away from the southeast
portion of WW 109, precluding a severe-weather threat in this part
of the watch.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38239309 37949541 38299635 38709614 38819545 38919301
38239309



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ACUS11 KWNS 282044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282043
KSZ000-COZ000-282215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...Far eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 282043Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected through the afternoon. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A storm has formed on the corner of Baca and Prowers
county in southeast Colorado. Instability is somewhat limited ahead
of this storm at this time (less than 1000 J/kg), but the pre-storm
environment is expected to steadily improve through the afternoon
and evening leading to a gradual increase in storm intensity.
Additional isolated to scattered storm development is possible in
this area with long, straight hodographs suggesting storm splits may
also occur. Low-level moisture has steadily been increasing across
the Texas/OK panhandle which continues to destabilize the airmass
ahead of these storms. Expect dewpoints to continue to increase to
near or slightly above 60F by early evening which would yield MLCAPE
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Discrete supercell is expected to be the
primary storm mode with a threat for large hail and damaging winds
initially. The tornado threat is expected to increase after 00Z as a
richer theta-e airmass advecting north reaches the storms and the
low-level jet starts to strengthen. The slow increase in storm
intensity and the isolated storm coverage will likely limit the need
for a watch in the near term, but a watch is possible in the next
few hours.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 39030220 39080136 38810001 38009957 37099973 37040039
37010203 37250236 38010244 39030220



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