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ACUS11 KWNS 192314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192314
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...West Tennessee...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois...far southeastern Missouri...and far northeastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 192314Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the discussion area,
and some propagation of convection outside of WW 107 is possible
near the Memphis, TN area and across western Kentucky. Local
spatial extensions of 107 may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...A couple of linear convective complexes have evolved
across the discussion area over the past hour or so - one just north
of the Memphis, TN area and another extending from far southern
Illinois into western Kentucky near Paducah, KY. An additional
cluster of storms was located very near the Paris, TN area as well.
These storms remain outflow dominant given weak deep shear profiles,
and it is not out of the question for an isolated damaging wind
threat to evolve along the leading edges of these complexes as they
continue to propagate slowly across the discussion area.
Furthermore, an isolated severe threat will exist near a stalled
outflow boundary in northeastern Arkansas over the next hour of so
given the moderately to strongly unstable airmass in place across
that area. This threat should persist through the scheduled
expiration time of the watch (01Z), although storms may begin to
exhibit a weakening trend before that time given the presence of
rain-cooled air across far southeastern portions of the WW from a
previous MCS.

..Cook.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37238956 37528927 37508890 37098835 36498804 35988810
35418840 35228891 35108954 34998987 35039003 35289033
35679065 36139109 36379115 36499090 36479035 36588990
36798965 37238956



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ACUS11 KWNS 280910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280910
OKZ000-TXZ000-281045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Areas affected...Portions of north TX and far southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280910Z - 281045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms just south of the Red River across western North
Texas may briefly become strong and produce marginally severe hail
the next couple of hours. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were ongoing early this morning just
south of the Red River across western North Texas. The storms have
occasionally increased in intensity, with an mPING report of
half-inch hail near Archer City in Archer County TX around 820Z.
These elevated storms are likely being driven by strong warm
advection atop a cold front stretching west-east across the region
from near LBB to just north of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex to
far southeast OK. The cold front is likely being further reinforced
by outflow from earlier convection, which current activity is
tracking southeastward along.

Steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km noted on 00z OUN and
FWD RAOBs, and indicated by 08z mesoanalysis/RAP forecast soundings,
along with deep-layer shear favorable for loosely organized cells,
will continue to support briefly strong storms for another couple of
hours early this morning before a weak shortwave impulse shifts
southeast of the vicinity. Isolated near-severe size hail will be
possible with strongest cores.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34470028 34560001 34489950 34079725 33959650 33589606
33079611 32829628 32749681 32949747 33329862 33469906
33940006 34210022 34370028 34470028



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