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ACUS11 KWNS 132209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132208
MOZ000-ARZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...central and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 132208Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of central and southern Missouri are being
considered for a tornado watch as convection migrates northeastward
into the region from northern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection initially over southwestern
Missouri has migrated northeastward into the discussion area
recently, although it has weakened while doing so. More
robust/mature convection persists upstream across western Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma, however, and these storms will probably pose a
threat for at least isolated hail/wind and a couple of tornadoes
with time. These storms will be supported by ample low- and deep
shear for updraft organization/rotation despite relatively weaker
surface-based buoyancy compared to areas farther south. A low-level
jet over central/eastern Arkansas is expected to increase with time
just east of this region, and sustained low-level warm advection
will result in increasing surface dewpoints with time (perhaps
reaching the 62-66F range closer to 00Z and beyond), which may also
support a continued, yet isolated severe threat.

Trends are being monitored, and storms can maintain their intensity
while migrating toward the discussion area, a new tornado watch will
likely be needed.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38529340 38829301 38759246 38359167 37789117 37259070
36599057 36409161 36569374 37099378 38049353 38529340



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ACUS11 KWNS 260005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260004
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...Central/southern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...

Valid 260004Z - 260200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues although it will begin to
diminish after sunset. Large hail remains the primary threat
although strong wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong/severe storms continue across portions of
central/southern Alabama and into portions far west/central Georgia.
Storms have begun to develop farther southwest along the cold front
into southeast Mississippi, although updrafts do not appear to be
very robust and are unlikely to become severe. Large hail is still
the primary threat with any of the stronger storms and strong winds
are also possible given the well mixed boundary layer. The severe
threat will diminish as insolation wanes with instability
decreasing. A few of the established storms may stay strong/severe
after sunset including just beyond the watch, but a watch extension
is unlikely given the likely very isolated severe coverage.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32168844 32628709 32978644 33188575 33248528 33158506
32758473 32408475 32148499 31898545 31798634 31748736
31698791 31558844 31748847 31988849 32168844



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