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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 14, 2019 23:39:43
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 142239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142239
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0539 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Mississippi...through central
    Alabama into northwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

    Valid 142239Z - 150015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

    SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development, including a few
    supercells, will likely continue, with a slow eastward progression
    across mainly central and eastern Alabama, through 8-10 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Discrete thunderstorm development, including
    supercells, continues, and appears generally focused along a
    confluent zone near a lingering 40+ kt south/southwesterly 850 mb
    jet axis. The jet appears likely to undergo only a gradually
    weakening into early evening, in the wake of the deep cyclone
    migrating across the Great Lakes, with also only a relatively slow
    eastward progression.

    Given the corridor of weak to moderate boundary layer instability
    along this axis, supported by mid 60s surface dew points, the
    environment appears likely to remain supportive of supercells with
    potential for tornadoes into at least the 00-02Z time frame. It is
    possible that some of this activity could spread into portions of
    northwestern Georgia, but activity seems likely to remain to the
    west of the Atlanta metropolitan area, where a more stable
    environment is expected to generally prevail.

    ..Kerr.. 03/14/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34438620 34658479 33438499 32008687 31698767 31708851
    32878836 34438620



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