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ACUS11 KWNS 142154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142154
MIZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142154Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing broken line of thunderstorms should continue to
pose an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat for the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent preceding an
upper trough/low has encouraged scatted thunderstorm development
this afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI. Some clearing has
allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of
this ongoing convection. Even though low-level moisture remains
limited, the modest heating coupled with some steepening of
mid-level lapse rates is supporting MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg across
parts of southern Lower MI. Strong effective bulk shear of 50-75+ kt
will support organized updrafts, and isolated instances of large
hail and damaging winds should continue to be possible as these
thunderstorms move eastward over the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41808527 42518505 43178504 43448488 43418419 43328304
42968238 42458262 41868322 41748354 41798473 41808527



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