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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0205

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 14, 2019 15:32:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 141432
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141431
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-141630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0205
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0931 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

    Areas affected...western KY...far southwestern IN...southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 141431Z - 141630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell intensity via strengthening low-level
    mesocyclones will probably intensify further during the next few
    hours as heating and a slight increase in buoyancy contribute to a
    greater tornado risk spreading northeast in a destabilizing warm
    sector.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover
    across the lower OH Valley with a couple of supercells moving
    quickly northeast (230 deg at 52kt). Surface analysis shows
    temperatures over western KY ranging from near 70 degrees F with
    surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Farther northeast in southwest
    IN and adjacent portions to the east along the OH River,
    temperatures are rising into the upper 50s to near 60 with dewpoints
    in the upper 50s. The PAH VAD shows 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.

    13Z RAP forecast soundings indicate as the airmass gradually
    destabilizes during the late morning, a risk for low-level
    mesocyclones capable of a tornado threat will likely increase.
    Upwards of 500 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop. Currently
    thinking the greatest risk for tornadoes will accompany the
    quasi-discrete supercell activity as it moves from western KY
    downstream into southwest IN during the next several hours which
    will coincide with the diurnal heating cycle on the north-end of the
    near 60 degrees F surface dewpoints.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/14/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 36768915 37978866 38888751 38838670 38628644 38088682
    36728863 36768915



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